Hamas Digs In: In Damascus

Earlier today I put up a post about Franco-Egyptian efforts to reestablish PA/Fatah control in Gaza and declared such an idea unacceptable to Hamas. Since then Khaled Meshaal, the Hamas political leader in Damascus, delivered a televised speech. As reported in Al Jazeera, Meshaal struck the usual notes: it's all the fault of the Israelis, what's going on in Gaza is a "holocaust," and the Israelis are losing the war and lying about their true casualties. Meshaal also called for a new Palestinian Intifada, essentially demanding that the West Bank rise up against the Israelis.

Meshaal also commented on the Hamas vision of what a ceasefire will have to include, and, not surprisingly, while his vision is not going to satisfy the Israelis, it's not going to satisfy the Egyptians or the UN either.

Meshaal's comments come as a Hamas delegation is in Egypt, together with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, to discuss an Egyptian cease-fire proposal and possible international monitoring force to enforce an agreement. Meshaal said that any international monitoring force in the Gaza strip would be treated as "occupation" force. "Before any negotiations could take place, Israel had to halt attacks, pull out of the Gaza Strip and lift the siege of Gaza," Meshaal said.

Meshaal is demanding that the Israelis stop their attacks, withdraw their forces, and give up their control of the entry points into Gaza before Hamas will halt its rockets. Not going to happen.

But Meshaal also rejected the idea of an international monitoring force entering Gaza. Since Hamas representatives have been talking to the Egyptians about the ceasefire, this means that those talks envision an international force going into the Strip, something Meshaal is trying to head off. Meshaal's pledge that Hamas will consider all such troops an "occupation" force, which is what Hamas considers the IDF, suggests that Hamas is not about to agree to the ceasefire. Nor is it likely to make countries eager to contribute soldiers to an international force. (Are they going to name it "UNIFIG"?)

The Hamazis are clearly in a bad spot. They're getting hammered by the Israelis, they are isolated, and their most important neighbor--Egypt--is party to efforts to place Fatah and a multinational force into Gaza.

Where can Hamas look for help? Hezbollah could weigh in from southern Lebanon. But if it does, while as expansion of the war would create greater international pressure, that pressure would be offset to a degree by demonstrating the incapacity of the UN and international forces to prevent such acts and would undermine UN-led efforts to guarantee Israeli security with a comparable force in Gaza. If it doesn't work in Lebanon, why will it work in Gaza?

That only leaves a renewed Intifada as a hope for Hamas. If the West Bank does not explode within a few days, Hamas's inadequacies, and growing weakness, will become evident. So keep your eyes on the West Bank.