Are the Israelis Going to "Win"?

There's been a constant refrain from the media since the Operation Cast Lead began that it could not succeed. The IDF had failed in 2006 and it would fail again. Even people who understood, and perhaps even supported the Israelis, felt that the effort would probably end badly.

But if you survey the press and what's going on in Gaza, you have to conclude that Israel might just well succeed. Yes, there are demonstrations across the world, but there have been demonstrations for days. Demonstrations are a good way to allow people to blow off steam. Hundreds of thousands march in Cairo, Beirut, Damascus, and Amman, but at the end of the effort they trudge home and do not continue on to the Israeli border. The Syrians protest, but I don't see them doing anything concrete, for example mobilizing their army. Hezbollah calls for Hamas to fight on and castigates those who stand idly by, but when some Palestinians in Lebanon fire a few rockets into northern Israel, Hezbollah assures everyone that "Hey, it wasn't us!" The Iranians scream the loudest and work diligently to get Brazil to take a tough stand, but they refuse to allow the volunteers suicide bombers to leave the country. The Egyptians shoot any Palestinians who try to get out of Gaza and into Egypt, while they busily try to work out a deal to re-insert Fatah into Gaza. And on the West Bank the other 2.5 million Palestinians protest vociferously, but their major concern seems to be that they fear Hamas will drag them into something similar.

If I was a Palestinian in Gaza I'd feel abandoned. If I were a Hamas fighter, living like a hunted animal while my leaders pontificated from the safety of their offices in Damascus and called for me to fight to the death, I'd consider deserting.

It seem clear to me that the reason the UN resolution was short on specifics is because the details that we'll ultimately see mean the end of Hamas in Gaza, at least until people get fed up again with Fatah's maladministration and corruption. You can read all over the web that this or that country "supports" the Egyptian and French efforts to achieve a ceasefire. The UN press release that accompanied the resolution says just that: "The resolution welcomes the regional and international efforts under way to end the crisis, including the Egyptian initiative crafted by President Hosni Mubarak and his French counterpart Nicolas Sarkozy, which, among other things, calls for a temporary ceasefire followed by talks on how to control the border crossings, as well as how to achieve reconciliation among Palestinian factions." But now we learn that those efforts involve re-inserting Fatah into control in Gaza. No wonder Hamas rejected the resolution. It's leaders can see what's coming.

If Hamas accepts the ceasefire plan it's finished in Gaza for the time being. If they keep fighting there's at least a chance international pressure will force an end to the IDF's operation. What Hamas really needs is to set up a massacre involving large numbers of civilians, or sit around and hope that a stray Israeli bomb hits a crowded hospital.

Hamas is in a tough spot, and it knows it. Hamas is isolated. It controls Gaza in a way that Hezbollah did not control Lebanon. That's why there was more sympathy for the Lebanese people--innocent bystanders--when they were under the Israeli gun, than there is for the Gazans, who after all voted to make Hamas their parliamentary representatives. And the Israelis have obviously learned many lessons from their 2006 operation in southern Lebanon.

Unless something changes the equation at this point, Israel, at least in the short term, is going to win. I hope the Israelis are already at work thinking about how to make the most of that victory (politically). If Fatah, with Egyptian and international support, returns to Gaza, there may not be a better time to strike a political deal.