http://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/Activists-Hundreds-of-Syrian-rebels-enter-besieged-Qusair-315018
Friday, May 31, 2013
Thursday, May 30, 2013
Assad Changes Focus toward Israel
http://www.almanar.com.lb/english/adetails.php?eid=95690&cid=23&fromval=1&frid=23&seccatid=20&s1=1
Here is part of the transcript of Assad's interview.I believe it was with Press TV, which is an Iranian outfit, but this account comes from Al Manar, which is Hezbollah's media arm.
What I find interesting is Assad's attempt to connect the Syrian rebels with Israel, and the forces of "resistance" to Israel with support for Assad.
I reassure that the battle, the developments in Al-Qusayr, and all the wail we hear are related to "Israel". They want to strangle the resistance. This old-new battle takes in each time a different shape. Now, the important thing is not Al-Qusayr as a city, but the borders. They want to strangle the resistance by land and sea, and here lies a question. It is said that the resistance should direct its arms at the enemy, hence at the South. This was said in May, 7 when some agents for Israel in Lebanon tried to meddle in the resistance's communication network. They said that the resistance shifted its weapons to the inside. They said the same thing about the Syrian Army. They said that the Syrian Army should fight on the borders with Israel. We clearly said that the army is fighting the enemy wherever he is present. When the enemy is in the North, or comes to the North, we move towards the North or the East or the West. The same applies to the resistance. Why is Hezbollah present on the borders in Lebanon or in Syria? Because the battle is against the Israeli enemy and its agents in Syria or in Lebanon.
In other words, Assad's strategy is simple and hardly novel: BLAME THE JEWS!
And it may work! If the IDF strikes weapons being turned over to Hezbollah, it will reinforce Assad's point. It reminds me of 1991 when the US launched Desert Storm's air campaign and Saddam Hussein promptly fired Scuds into Israel, hoping for their response.
The way the Bush administration avoided that trap was to take up the Scud hunting campaign to preempt Israeli action. But will Obama do the same this time, or will he stand by as the IDF strikes?
As I've said before, there is no clear and easy answer for Obama in this crisis. But he needs to do something, and not try to "lead from behind." The Syrian crisis is much larger than Syria. It now is linked to the Iranian nuclear issue, stability in Iraq and Lebanon, US-Russia relations, and the possibilities of some larger regional war. The Iranians and Russians are doing everything they can to place Obama in a difficult position. I suspect that they have concluded that he will not act, and they can get away with whatever they want to do in Syria. The worst they'll face will be US and UN protestations and unenforced red lines.
If Obama did decide to take action, with whom would he take it? Clearly, the Russians and Chinese would veto any UN action. NATO is divided, with the Canadians and the Germans against action. So if Obama did decide to do something, he'd have to resort to a "coalition of the willing" to go along with him, primarily France, Great Britain, and the Gulf Arabs. And that is his best case.
Here is part of the transcript of Assad's interview.I believe it was with Press TV, which is an Iranian outfit, but this account comes from Al Manar, which is Hezbollah's media arm.
What I find interesting is Assad's attempt to connect the Syrian rebels with Israel, and the forces of "resistance" to Israel with support for Assad.
I reassure that the battle, the developments in Al-Qusayr, and all the wail we hear are related to "Israel". They want to strangle the resistance. This old-new battle takes in each time a different shape. Now, the important thing is not Al-Qusayr as a city, but the borders. They want to strangle the resistance by land and sea, and here lies a question. It is said that the resistance should direct its arms at the enemy, hence at the South. This was said in May, 7 when some agents for Israel in Lebanon tried to meddle in the resistance's communication network. They said that the resistance shifted its weapons to the inside. They said the same thing about the Syrian Army. They said that the Syrian Army should fight on the borders with Israel. We clearly said that the army is fighting the enemy wherever he is present. When the enemy is in the North, or comes to the North, we move towards the North or the East or the West. The same applies to the resistance. Why is Hezbollah present on the borders in Lebanon or in Syria? Because the battle is against the Israeli enemy and its agents in Syria or in Lebanon.
In other words, Assad's strategy is simple and hardly novel: BLAME THE JEWS!
And it may work! If the IDF strikes weapons being turned over to Hezbollah, it will reinforce Assad's point. It reminds me of 1991 when the US launched Desert Storm's air campaign and Saddam Hussein promptly fired Scuds into Israel, hoping for their response.
The way the Bush administration avoided that trap was to take up the Scud hunting campaign to preempt Israeli action. But will Obama do the same this time, or will he stand by as the IDF strikes?
As I've said before, there is no clear and easy answer for Obama in this crisis. But he needs to do something, and not try to "lead from behind." The Syrian crisis is much larger than Syria. It now is linked to the Iranian nuclear issue, stability in Iraq and Lebanon, US-Russia relations, and the possibilities of some larger regional war. The Iranians and Russians are doing everything they can to place Obama in a difficult position. I suspect that they have concluded that he will not act, and they can get away with whatever they want to do in Syria. The worst they'll face will be US and UN protestations and unenforced red lines.
If Obama did decide to take action, with whom would he take it? Clearly, the Russians and Chinese would veto any UN action. NATO is divided, with the Canadians and the Germans against action. So if Obama did decide to do something, he'd have to resort to a "coalition of the willing" to go along with him, primarily France, Great Britain, and the Gulf Arabs. And that is his best case.
The Sunni-Shi'a Civil War: An Arab Take
http://www.aawsat.net/2013/05/article55303546
I've been commenting about this danger for weeks. Lest anyone think it's all in my Islamophobic head, here is an Arab opinion piece lamenting the deepening and spreading sectarian fighting.
"After recognizing that civil war is now the reality on the ground, many refused to acknowledge that it transformed once again, into a sectarian war. Opposition representatives claim that Syria will not fall into the quagmire of sectarian violence and that the Syrian opposition represents all communities. But talk is one thing, and reality another. What is happening on the ground in terms of killings, displacement, and exactly who is being targeted makes it crystal clear that this is a sectarian war with all the inherent ugliness and brutality, and it is tearing Syria apart"
I've been commenting about this danger for weeks. Lest anyone think it's all in my Islamophobic head, here is an Arab opinion piece lamenting the deepening and spreading sectarian fighting.
"After recognizing that civil war is now the reality on the ground, many refused to acknowledge that it transformed once again, into a sectarian war. Opposition representatives claim that Syria will not fall into the quagmire of sectarian violence and that the Syrian opposition represents all communities. But talk is one thing, and reality another. What is happening on the ground in terms of killings, displacement, and exactly who is being targeted makes it crystal clear that this is a sectarian war with all the inherent ugliness and brutality, and it is tearing Syria apart"
Situation in Iraq Deteriorates
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/05/sadr-maliki-iraq-warning.html
Sadr is openly maneuvering to undermine Maliki.
Sadr is openly maneuvering to undermine Maliki.
Syrian Rebels Demand Hezbollah withdrawal before Talks
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2013/05/30/Syria-opposition-says-no-peace-talks-until-Hezbollah-Iran-halt-invasion-.html
I doubt this is what the Obama administration had in mind yesterday when it demanded that Hezbollah withdraw and termed its presence in Syria "unacceptable." But the Syrian rebels have jumped on the wagon and are now likewise calling for the withdrawal, as a prerequisite for attending the talks sponsored by Russia and the US.
My interpretation is that the Syrian rebels are upping the pressure on the Obama administration to act. Clearly, the US wants the rebels to attend the conference, but Obama is hardly in a strong position to pressure them to do so when all they are demanding is something that he himself has demanded--namely Hezbollah's withdrawal.
In other words, the wily rebels just outmaneuvered Obama, because Hezbollah is not going to pull out and the rebels didn't really want to talk anyway. So now Obama will again look weak and, through his actions, appear to have thrown the proverbial wrench into the Russian sponsored talks. Alternatively, he could act, which is what the rebels want.
File this one under "smart diplomacy."
UPDATE! Now Al Jazeera is reporting that the Syrian rebels are also demanding that the Syrian army withdraw from Qusayr, the town recently captured in tough fighting. I wouldn't hold my breath in expectation of these talks. And again, this puts even more pressure on Obama.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/05/201353012242663209.html
I doubt this is what the Obama administration had in mind yesterday when it demanded that Hezbollah withdraw and termed its presence in Syria "unacceptable." But the Syrian rebels have jumped on the wagon and are now likewise calling for the withdrawal, as a prerequisite for attending the talks sponsored by Russia and the US.
My interpretation is that the Syrian rebels are upping the pressure on the Obama administration to act. Clearly, the US wants the rebels to attend the conference, but Obama is hardly in a strong position to pressure them to do so when all they are demanding is something that he himself has demanded--namely Hezbollah's withdrawal.
In other words, the wily rebels just outmaneuvered Obama, because Hezbollah is not going to pull out and the rebels didn't really want to talk anyway. So now Obama will again look weak and, through his actions, appear to have thrown the proverbial wrench into the Russian sponsored talks. Alternatively, he could act, which is what the rebels want.
File this one under "smart diplomacy."
UPDATE! Now Al Jazeera is reporting that the Syrian rebels are also demanding that the Syrian army withdraw from Qusayr, the town recently captured in tough fighting. I wouldn't hold my breath in expectation of these talks. And again, this puts even more pressure on Obama.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/05/201353012242663209.html
Ethiopian Dam a "Declaration of War"!
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/72730/Egypt/Politics-/Ethiopia-dam-is-declaration-of-war-AlGamaa-AlIslam.aspx
This is a follow up to yesterday's post about the growing friction between Egypt and Ethiopia over the latter's plan for a dam on the upper Nile. This leader of one of Egypt's Islamist groups takes a hardline stand.
Yesterday's post is here:
http://betterinformedcomment.blogspot.com/2013/05/egyptian-ethiopian-water-troubles.html
And here is another story about the Egyptians summoning the Ethiopian ambassador over the issue.
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/72655/Egypt/Politics-/Egypt-summons-Ethiopian-ambassador-over-Blue-Nile-.aspx
This is a follow up to yesterday's post about the growing friction between Egypt and Ethiopia over the latter's plan for a dam on the upper Nile. This leader of one of Egypt's Islamist groups takes a hardline stand.
Yesterday's post is here:
http://betterinformedcomment.blogspot.com/2013/05/egyptian-ethiopian-water-troubles.html
And here is another story about the Egyptians summoning the Ethiopian ambassador over the issue.
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/72655/Egypt/Politics-/Egypt-summons-Ethiopian-ambassador-over-Blue-Nile-.aspx
Wednesday, May 29, 2013
Obama the Incompetent!
https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentaryanalysis/washington-the-incompetent
So says this Arab editorial, and it's of a kind that I'm seeing more often as the days pass and the Syrian crisis drags on. There have always been, and always will be, hostile voices in the Arab world when it comes to US policy in the region. We back the wrong people; we are tools of the Jews. If you study the region, you grow to expect that.
But this is new. Increasingly, the editorialists aren't angry about the positions Obama is taking; they are frustrated because they can't figure out WHAT Obama is doing. They generally end up concluding that he doesn't know what in the hell he is doing. Hence this editorial that simply labels his administration "Incompetent."
People will respect a policy they understand and agree with. People may respect a policy they understand but disagree with, given the power of the United States. But people--in the Arab world, in Tehran, in Moscow, and in Ankara--will not respect incompetence.
So says this Arab editorial, and it's of a kind that I'm seeing more often as the days pass and the Syrian crisis drags on. There have always been, and always will be, hostile voices in the Arab world when it comes to US policy in the region. We back the wrong people; we are tools of the Jews. If you study the region, you grow to expect that.
But this is new. Increasingly, the editorialists aren't angry about the positions Obama is taking; they are frustrated because they can't figure out WHAT Obama is doing. They generally end up concluding that he doesn't know what in the hell he is doing. Hence this editorial that simply labels his administration "Incompetent."
People will respect a policy they understand and agree with. People may respect a policy they understand but disagree with, given the power of the United States. But people--in the Arab world, in Tehran, in Moscow, and in Ankara--will not respect incompetence.
More Syrian Chemical Attacks?
http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/UK-says-informs-UN-of-more-Syria-chemical-attacks-314740
The Brits say yes!
Where is that red line?
The Brits say yes!
Where is that red line?
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