Friday, May 17, 2013

Interesting Iranian Take on Syria

http://old.mehrnews.com/en/newsdetail.aspx?NewsID=1821928

The Iranians in this report claim that the Turkish PM's meeting with Obama was designed to assure the removal of Assad.

At the same time the Russians are reporting that Kerry's talks with their FM show that Obama is committed to talks that will include Assad or his representative, in other words that Obama has backed away from his Assad must go position. 

If you read the American press reports, it seems as if both these assertions are true! Of course, the problem is that if they are both true there is no US policy. Or looked at another way, our policy is to agree with whomever were are conversing. So we assure Erdogan that Assad has to go, but we assure the Russians that we agree with them about negotiations that in their mind would allow Assad to remain in power.

I am afraid that it is becoming apparent that, with regard to Syria, we don't have a policy. Obama doesn't know what to do.

To be fair, I can understand that. Assad is a butcher, a client of Tehran, and the desire to get rid of him is thus logical and clearly in the interests of the US.

On the other hand, recent reports make it clear that the dominant force within the rebel alliance are jihadists, and themselves butchers who massacre prisoners, mutilate the dead, and eat their hearts and livers.

Moreover, Assad's forces seem to be rebounding, and their Russian allies are sending cash, ships, and now improved air defense missiles that, once in place, will make any no-fly zone much harder to implement. Is Obama going to send US air assets into action over Tartus if Russian naval vessels are in the roadstead?

So Obama is being pressured by his Turkish ally to act, while simultaneously he is being cautioned, and warned, by his Russian buddy to not act.

To be honest, if I were president I do not know what I'd do. If Obama takes a more active course, alongside the Turks, he runs big risks with the Russians and the prospect that even if his policy is successful, he'll be blamed for helping jihadists take power in Damascus. If he does nothing, and allows the killing to drag on for another year or more, he'll piss off the Turks and our Sunni Arab allies and look indecisive and weak.

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