http://www.aawsat.net/2013/06/article55306975
Talk about a proverbial "sword of Damocles" for Egyptian politicians.
If the army does march, what in the world will Obama do? Condemn them for being undemocratic, I suspect. He'd much rather see the Muslim Brotherhood control Egypt, and, of course, continue to govern it into the ground.
Monday, June 24, 2013
Are the Majority of Muslims Really Turned Off by Terror?
Remember when the world's Muslims were upset about that Muhammad movie back in the fall, when mobs stormed the US embassy in Egypt and the Obama administration tried to use that as an excuse for what went down in Benghazi? Below is a link to an article about a protest by Muslims in Toronto outside the US embassy. The protestors number more than a thousand!
http://digitaljournal.com/article/333361
The other day a group of Toronto's "Progressive" Muslims decided to stage a demonstration against the hijacking of their religion by terrorists. See the report below.
http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2013/06/17/progressive_muslims_group_launched_in_toronto_to_reclaim_hijacked_faith.html
The report doesn't mention a number, but does note that only about half of those who attended were actually Muslims. But if you look at the carefully and narrowly focused photos with the story, you don't see many people. The same is true of a You Tube video. The estimate is that the rally drew about two-dozen people.
Here is the video. It's fairly sad. These people definitely have a good heart and love their country--Canada. But the fact that there are so few of them tells you a lot.
And that is the problem.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8CUbnAiPZmc
http://digitaljournal.com/article/333361
The other day a group of Toronto's "Progressive" Muslims decided to stage a demonstration against the hijacking of their religion by terrorists. See the report below.
http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2013/06/17/progressive_muslims_group_launched_in_toronto_to_reclaim_hijacked_faith.html
The report doesn't mention a number, but does note that only about half of those who attended were actually Muslims. But if you look at the carefully and narrowly focused photos with the story, you don't see many people. The same is true of a You Tube video. The estimate is that the rally drew about two-dozen people.
Here is the video. It's fairly sad. These people definitely have a good heart and love their country--Canada. But the fact that there are so few of them tells you a lot.
And that is the problem.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8CUbnAiPZmc
Assad Takes Priority over Israel
http://www.jpost.com/Diplomacy-and-Politics/Hamas-official-Stopping-Assad-priority-over-jihad-in-Palestine-317570
According to this Hamas leader. That's a big step, and it's an indication that the Iran-Assad-Hezbollah strategy of trying to refocus Arab efforts on "The Jews" isn't working.
According to this Hamas leader. That's a big step, and it's an indication that the Iran-Assad-Hezbollah strategy of trying to refocus Arab efforts on "The Jews" isn't working.
Syrian Druze Want to Relocate to Israel!
http://www.timesofisrael.com/druze-leaders-ask-israel-to-take-in-syrian-coreligionists/?utm_source=The+Times+of+Israel+Daily+Edition&utm_campaign=6df6b8d39c-2013_06_23&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_adb46cec92-6df6b8d39c-54443077
The Druze are an off-shoot of Shi'a Islam. They have a long history and have often been repressed by especially Sunni Muslims as apostates. Israel already has a substantial Druze community. They are considered loyal, hold Israeli citizenship, and are subject to the compulsory service. I recall that a Druze at one point was the Israeli consul in Atlanta.
No doubt they are alarmed by the increasingly sectarian nature of the Syrian civil war.
The Druze are an off-shoot of Shi'a Islam. They have a long history and have often been repressed by especially Sunni Muslims as apostates. Israel already has a substantial Druze community. They are considered loyal, hold Israeli citizenship, and are subject to the compulsory service. I recall that a Druze at one point was the Israeli consul in Atlanta.
No doubt they are alarmed by the increasingly sectarian nature of the Syrian civil war.
Saturday, June 22, 2013
Friday, June 21, 2013
Syria Now and Afghanistan Then
As we shape out policy in Syria, we ought to keep in mind our experiences in Afghanistan back in the late 1970s and 1980s. The Carter and Reagan administrations supported the Afghan resistance, which consisted of a hodgepodge of various mujaheddin groups, most Afghan nationals and other Arab volunteers. The US and its Arab allies helped these groups to win--that is to force the Soviets to withdraw. Unfortunately, that victory largely evaporated when the Taliban came to dominate the country and Al-Qaeda found a base for further operations.
When Al Qaeda won, it's leadership then had to decide what to do next. There were some who favored going after the "Near Enemy," that is the non-Islamist Arab states such as Saudi Arabia or Egypt. Others favored going after the "Far Enemy." For some that meant going to Chechnya and fighting the Russians in the Caucasus. For others that meant taking on the US, which was what the leadership ultimately decided to do. Hence 9/11/2001.
If Syria, like the Afghan Communist regime, supported by Russia, goes under and, in that sense, history repeats itself, what then can we expect from the victorious coalition?
First, the odds are the more radical and vicious groups will dominate, just as the Taliban did in Afghanistan.
Second, the victors will then debate "what do we do now?" Their options will be numerous.
Hunker down in Syria and rebuild the state?
Go after a "Near Enemy"?
Or go after a "Far Enemy"?
The reality of Syrian policy is that even if we are "successful," and drive Assad from power, we are headed for trouble. Of course, a failure to drive Assad from power would also create enormous problems, strengthening, as it would, Hezbollah and Iran.
When Al Qaeda won, it's leadership then had to decide what to do next. There were some who favored going after the "Near Enemy," that is the non-Islamist Arab states such as Saudi Arabia or Egypt. Others favored going after the "Far Enemy." For some that meant going to Chechnya and fighting the Russians in the Caucasus. For others that meant taking on the US, which was what the leadership ultimately decided to do. Hence 9/11/2001.
If Syria, like the Afghan Communist regime, supported by Russia, goes under and, in that sense, history repeats itself, what then can we expect from the victorious coalition?
First, the odds are the more radical and vicious groups will dominate, just as the Taliban did in Afghanistan.
Second, the victors will then debate "what do we do now?" Their options will be numerous.
Hunker down in Syria and rebuild the state?
Go after a "Near Enemy"?
- Go after Hezbollah in Lebanon;
- Go after the Shi'a in Iraq;
- Carry the struggle into Jordan to get rid of the King;
- Go after Israel in an effort to spark a regional war that might unite Arabs in a single cause.
Or go after a "Far Enemy"?
- Move the effort to the Caucasus against the Russians;
- Go after a European country;
- Go after the US.
The reality of Syrian policy is that even if we are "successful," and drive Assad from power, we are headed for trouble. Of course, a failure to drive Assad from power would also create enormous problems, strengthening, as it would, Hezbollah and Iran.
EU Fighters in Syria
http://rt.com/news/russians-europeans-putin-syria-063/
First, it was 200. Then it was 400. Now it is 600, including Russians. No doubt, the Russians are more concerned about what happens with these guys if they are successful in Syria.
First, it was 200. Then it was 400. Now it is 600, including Russians. No doubt, the Russians are more concerned about what happens with these guys if they are successful in Syria.
Violence Spreads to Lebanon?
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/06/syrian-war-threatens-lebanon-with-crisis.html
According to this Arab press article, that's what's happening.
Killings have been ongoing for a while now between Lebanese Shiite clans and the Sunni inhabitants of the town of Arsal. These events forebode an increase in sectarian violence between Sunnis and Shiites in broader Lebanon. Moreover, it has become obvious that the higher frequency of these events has coincided on the one hand with Hezbollah’s deepening involvement in the Syrian war and on the other with the consolidation of the relationship between Lebanese Salafist forces and their Syrian counterparts.
According to this Arab press article, that's what's happening.
Killings have been ongoing for a while now between Lebanese Shiite clans and the Sunni inhabitants of the town of Arsal. These events forebode an increase in sectarian violence between Sunnis and Shiites in broader Lebanon. Moreover, it has become obvious that the higher frequency of these events has coincided on the one hand with Hezbollah’s deepening involvement in the Syrian war and on the other with the consolidation of the relationship between Lebanese Salafist forces and their Syrian counterparts.
Are Those Manpads Arriving?
http://www.timesofisrael.com/syrian-rebel-commander-says-they-have-new-weapons/
The rebels claim they've received new, game-changing weapons.
The rebels claim they've received new, game-changing weapons.
Wednesday, June 19, 2013
Times of India: "Humbled US"
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/Humbled-US-makes-concessions-to-Taliban-to-start-talks/articleshow/20653104.cms
"Humbled US" headline from Times of India. They point out that Obama caved when the Taliban refused to meet the pre-conditions our illustrious president had set for the talks to begin. Any wonder that Karzai has already balked?
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AS_AFGHANISTAN?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2013-06-19-06-35-52
Our foreign policy is a joke. The only people who don't realize it are Americans who continue to believe in their Messiah. The 1 billion Indians know it's a joke. The 1 billion Chinese know it's a joke. The Russians know it's a joke. The Iranians know it's a joke. Assad knows it's a joke. Nasrallah knows it's a joke. Wake up! Obama's trying to cut a deal with the Taliban so they'll give him a "decent interval" to withdraw from Afghanistan without them collapsing the place as we pull out. Obama will claim "victory" and when it all goes to shit blame the Afghans. Karzai is a bozo, and Karzai is corrupt, and Karzai is incompetent, but Karzai didn't get where he is without being an astute "survivor" and he can smell a "Munich" coming.
"Humbled US" headline from Times of India. They point out that Obama caved when the Taliban refused to meet the pre-conditions our illustrious president had set for the talks to begin. Any wonder that Karzai has already balked?
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AS_AFGHANISTAN?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2013-06-19-06-35-52
Our foreign policy is a joke. The only people who don't realize it are Americans who continue to believe in their Messiah. The 1 billion Indians know it's a joke. The 1 billion Chinese know it's a joke. The Russians know it's a joke. The Iranians know it's a joke. Assad knows it's a joke. Nasrallah knows it's a joke. Wake up! Obama's trying to cut a deal with the Taliban so they'll give him a "decent interval" to withdraw from Afghanistan without them collapsing the place as we pull out. Obama will claim "victory" and when it all goes to shit blame the Afghans. Karzai is a bozo, and Karzai is corrupt, and Karzai is incompetent, but Karzai didn't get where he is without being an astute "survivor" and he can smell a "Munich" coming.
Monday, June 17, 2013
Turkish Army May Intervene
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/army-may-step-in-to-stop-protests-if-need-be-deputy-pm-arinc.aspx?pageID=238&nID=48946&NewsCatID=338
Dangerous sign for both sides. I'm not sure Erdogan can fully trust the military.
Dangerous sign for both sides. I'm not sure Erdogan can fully trust the military.
Saudis Will Supply Syrian Rebels with "Manpads"
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/syrien-konflikt-saudi-arabien-will-waffen-an-rebellen-liefern-a-905987.html
These will be French Mistrals, Man-portable air defense system. Of course, once these guys get their hands on such equipment, they can use them against western air liners.
These will be French Mistrals, Man-portable air defense system. Of course, once these guys get their hands on such equipment, they can use them against western air liners.
Russia: No No Fly Zone in Syria!
http://rt.com/news/line/2013-06-17/#48810
The story:
Russia will not allow the establishment of a no-fly zone over Syria, believes Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Aleksandr Lukashevich. “We saw in Libya the way that such a zone is introduced and how these solutions are implemented. We don’t want this to repeat in the Syrian conflict. I think that we won’t fundamentally allow the same scenario,” he said. Lukashevich added that the contract with Syria to supply S-300 “was signed quite a long time ago” and has not yet been implemented. “We take a responsible approach to the implementation of our commitments and there is nothing illegal in terms of international law,” he reiterated. Earlier several countries spoke out in favor of establishing a no-fly zone over Syria, which would deprive the Syrian government's army of the capability to strike the rebel forces from air.
The story:
Russia will not allow the establishment of a no-fly zone over Syria, believes Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Aleksandr Lukashevich. “We saw in Libya the way that such a zone is introduced and how these solutions are implemented. We don’t want this to repeat in the Syrian conflict. I think that we won’t fundamentally allow the same scenario,” he said. Lukashevich added that the contract with Syria to supply S-300 “was signed quite a long time ago” and has not yet been implemented. “We take a responsible approach to the implementation of our commitments and there is nothing illegal in terms of international law,” he reiterated. Earlier several countries spoke out in favor of establishing a no-fly zone over Syria, which would deprive the Syrian government's army of the capability to strike the rebel forces from air.
Even Hamas Has Turned on Hezbollah
http://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-to-hezbollah-get-out-of-syria/
This gives you a good idea of just how deep the sectarian divide has become in the region.
This gives you a good idea of just how deep the sectarian divide has become in the region.
Sunday, June 16, 2013
Blame the Jews!
I've
made several posts on Facebook today highlighting blatant antisemitism in Iran,
Egypt, Syria, and Turkey. We are talking about outright antisemitism
from Sunnis and Shi'a alike. Why are we seeing this up-tick in
antisemitism? Because in the region, when the going gets tough, YOU BLAME
THE JEWS! And the going is getting tougher. Since the place is falling
apart, and sectarian infighting is exploding, no one
over there knows any way to counteract the increasingly evident
divisions other than to attempt to unite everyone against the Jews.
Basically, Jew hatred is one of the very few things in the Middle East
that people can all agree on, and rally around. So if you're an Egyptian
and you want more reforms, you're a tool of the Jews. If you want to
overthrow Assad? You're a tool of the Jews. If you protest against
Erdogan? You're a tool of the Jews. And if you don't like Iran, it's
nuke program, its support for Assad, or anything else, you're a tool of
the Jews. (And, of course, an Islamophobe.) Everyone's a tool of the
Jews, including Barack Obama.
[Sorry, got to run. Getting a call from Bibi.]
[Sorry, got to run. Getting a call from Bibi.]
Hezbollah Trains Syrians!
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2013/06/16/Hezbollah-trains-Assad-forces-for-Aleppo-offensive-.html
The Hezbollah forces, trained in urban warfare in Iran, are now training some Syrian units in urban warfare.
It was often clear in videos taken by Syrian rebels, that Assad's mechanized forces were not well suited to operating in built-up environments. The Syrian army was basically trained to fight the Israelis in open armored warfare. But now they are being re-trained and, apparently, they are performing much better, hence their recent victories.
The Syrians are also concentrating their forces in the northwest, especially near Aleppo. This is important to keep in mind because the US is supporting Syrian rebel forces operating near the Jordanian border, i.e., in the southeast. In other words, helping the rebels in the southeast, even if it is done well and in a timely fashion, is not going to help the rebels near Aleppo--unless "our" rebels can threaten either Damascus or the Syrian lines of supply running from the capital to Iraq.
Iranian supplies, and possibly troops, are moving along those roads running from Baghdad to Damascus, and are within striking distance of the Jordanian border.
The Hezbollah forces, trained in urban warfare in Iran, are now training some Syrian units in urban warfare.
It was often clear in videos taken by Syrian rebels, that Assad's mechanized forces were not well suited to operating in built-up environments. The Syrian army was basically trained to fight the Israelis in open armored warfare. But now they are being re-trained and, apparently, they are performing much better, hence their recent victories.
The Syrians are also concentrating their forces in the northwest, especially near Aleppo. This is important to keep in mind because the US is supporting Syrian rebel forces operating near the Jordanian border, i.e., in the southeast. In other words, helping the rebels in the southeast, even if it is done well and in a timely fashion, is not going to help the rebels near Aleppo--unless "our" rebels can threaten either Damascus or the Syrian lines of supply running from the capital to Iraq.
Iranian supplies, and possibly troops, are moving along those roads running from Baghdad to Damascus, and are within striking distance of the Jordanian border.
Erdogan Blames Jews!
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/the-chapull-jew-capulcu-interest-rate-lobby.aspx?pageID=449&nID=48497&NewsCatID=430
PM Erdogan talks about the "interest rate lobby," which is the code in Turkey for "the Jews!"
PM Erdogan talks about the "interest rate lobby," which is the code in Turkey for "the Jews!"
Friday, June 14, 2013
Muslim Brotherhood Moves into Sunni Alignment!
This first article calls for solidarity with the Syrian people, in actuality Syrian Sunnis.
http://www.ikhwanweb.com/article.php?id=31008
There were two other articles up earlier, that are now unfortunately inacessible, although if you go to the page you can still see the links. http://www.ikhwanweb.com/
The first calls for the end of Shia attacks in Iraq; the second condemns Hezbollah in Lebanon.
So there we have it! In one day the Ihkwan has joined he sectarian struggle on-going from Lebanon to the Iranian border.
http://www.ikhwanweb.com/article.php?id=31008
There were two other articles up earlier, that are now unfortunately inacessible, although if you go to the page you can still see the links. http://www.ikhwanweb.com/
The first calls for the end of Shia attacks in Iraq; the second condemns Hezbollah in Lebanon.
So there we have it! In one day the Ihkwan has joined he sectarian struggle on-going from Lebanon to the Iranian border.
Obama's Syrian Policy Options
Obama has three options in Syria. 1) Support Assad. 2)
Overthrow Assad. 3) Lean one way then the other and keep the war going as long
as possible. Obama cannot adopt (1) given his statements about Assad having to
go. Even if he wanted to, it would be foolish to help Hezbollah and the
Iranians win. Obama could adopt (2), but that would require more than just
weapons; at least an air campaign. Moreover, (2) might well give power in
Damascus to Jihadists. Obama’s strategy thus far fits (3), which could be described
as the best strategy to serve purely American interests. As long as the fighting continues, the Sunni
jihadists will head to Syria, where many will be “martyred.” And while that is
happening, which is a good thing for the US, financially strapped Iran will be
bankrolling Syria, which is also good for the US. But there are several
downsides to (3). If that is, or becomes, our policy, someone will eventually
leak the memo and the Obama administration will look exceedingly heartless,
since (3) means the death of another 100,000 Syrians. Moreover, if the
sectarian nature of the war keeps escalating, the entire region could collapse
into a spasm of violence from Lebanon to Iran.
In short, Obama has NO—ZERO—wise options in Syria. Right now
he is straddling the line between (2) and (3), but neither are winners. If he
ends up leaning toward (2), he better discuss that with the American people,
have a debate, and involve Congress. If he goes with (3), he cannot discuss
that publicly. There is no way we can have a public debate about a policy consciously
adopted that essentially condemns hundreds of thousands of Arabs to death to
serve American interests.
Tuesday, June 11, 2013
Collapse of the Turkish Model
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/06/turkey-muslim-democracy-farewell.html
If we try to summarize this defeat in a few words, what we are experiencing now is the collapse of the "Muslim democracy paradigm." The ambition of AKP [Justice and Development Party] Turkey to be a model for the Middle East has been invalidated by the social explosion. The collapse should be partly attributed to this phenomenon.
If we try to summarize this defeat in a few words, what we are experiencing now is the collapse of the "Muslim democracy paradigm." The ambition of AKP [Justice and Development Party] Turkey to be a model for the Middle East has been invalidated by the social explosion. The collapse should be partly attributed to this phenomenon.
Sunday, June 9, 2013
"Storm of North": Syrians Drive on Aleppo
http://www.almanar.com.lb/english/main.php
Hezbollah reports Syrian forces have begun their offensive to retake Aleppo. Obama, I'm sure, is hoping this fails. If it succeeds....
Hezbollah reports Syrian forces have begun their offensive to retake Aleppo. Obama, I'm sure, is hoping this fails. If it succeeds....
The Egyptian Economy: Is it Doomed?
http://www.meforum.org/3527/egypt-economic-ruin
David Goldman says yes.
For those of you unfamiliar with Goldman, he also writes under the name "Spengler" and before the Arab Spring predicted that the Egyptian economy was going to cause problems for Mubarak. In other words, the Arab Spring was sparked by the economic problems that are now haunting Morsi, who has even less leverage to handle them.
David Goldman says yes.
For those of you unfamiliar with Goldman, he also writes under the name "Spengler" and before the Arab Spring predicted that the Egyptian economy was going to cause problems for Mubarak. In other words, the Arab Spring was sparked by the economic problems that are now haunting Morsi, who has even less leverage to handle them.
Friday, June 7, 2013
Al Qaeda Rebrands! New Name? TERMINUS!
http://www.panarabiaenquirer.com/wordpress/al-qaeda-reveals-new-corporate-rebranding/
“The Al-Qaeda brand, while known and feared by millions, has lost its way in recent years,” said marketing manager Edward Al-Zahib in a live video link-up broadcast online. “While our affiliates and franchises across the Islamic Maghreb and Arabian Peninsula, along with splinter groups around the world, helped take our message to a wider audience, people were losing sight of what we really stand for. That’s why, as of today, Al-Qaeda becomes Terminus.”
“The Al-Qaeda brand, while known and feared by millions, has lost its way in recent years,” said marketing manager Edward Al-Zahib in a live video link-up broadcast online. “While our affiliates and franchises across the Islamic Maghreb and Arabian Peninsula, along with splinter groups around the world, helped take our message to a wider audience, people were losing sight of what we really stand for. That’s why, as of today, Al-Qaeda becomes Terminus.”
Syria: Quo Vadis?
The unfolding events in Syria
form a moment in history that will change the way we think about the
relationship between the West and the Islamic world. The deteriorating
situation, with the death of tens of thousands of people and the displacement
of millions of refugees, is an atrocity several magnitudes beyond this past
May’s events in Boston. And if you look around the globe at what is happening elsewhere--in
Syria, Yemen, Pakistan, Somalia, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Turkey, and Iraq--the
evident discontent, unrest, economic troubles, and killings dwarf anything occurring
between the Islamic world and the West.
Professor John Esposito of
Georgetown University recently published an opinion piece in the Washington Post criticizing former Tony
Blair.
The former British Prime Minister
wrote:
There
is a problem within Islam--from the adherents of an ideology that is a strain
within Islam. And we have to put it on the table and be honest about it…. It
has at its heart a view about religion and about the interaction between
religion and politics that is not compatible with pluralistic, liberal,
open-minded societies.
Esposito countered with a well worn
argument:
Though
well intentioned, it perpetuates his long held belief since the Bush-Blair
invasion and occupation of Iraq that the primary driver, the root cause of
terrorism, is religion and not political and social contexts and foreign
policies. It is wrong headed and doomed to continue to be part of the problem
not the solution.
Unfortunately, Esposito
misses the larger point. Forget Boston, Professor Esposito! Forget London! How
do you explain the inter-Arab butchery in Syria with arguments about Western “political and social contexts and foreign policies”?
Do we need to properly digest
the meanings and the evils of the Tsarnaev brothers or label the actions of
Major Hassan as terrorism instead of workplace violence to understand what is
going in the Muslim world? Does it really make much of a difference what
motivated the Nigerian converts to Islam who recently butchered a British
soldier when we see the bloodbath that is Syria? What of the 200,000 Algerians
who have died in their country’s internal fighting over the past twenty years?
This clearly evident reality
should make one thing perfectly clear (although for many, such as John
Esposito, it will not): while we are free to attribute sporadic Muslim
terrorism against and within the West to Western policies of imperialism or colonialism,
you can’t attribute the sectarian strife so evident in Syria between Sunnis and
Shi’a as being somehow caused by the West. (Yes, I know that you can blame the
borders of Syria on the British and French, but no set of borders could have
avoided the intermixing of populations given the mosaic that was the Middle
East.)
What we are seeing in Syria,
and increasingly elsewhere in the Middle East, is something that we are loathe
to discuss openly: the inability of Islamic political, economic and social (not
religious) culture to cope with the demands of the twenty-first century.
To say that openly is to risk
being labeled an Islamophobe.
To avoid saying it is to
ignore the obvious.
Ought we to be surprised that
a social system developed by a seventh-century man in the Arabian Peninsula,
however wise, is inadequate to meet the demands of the modern world? Marxism
was a nineteenth-century social system that failed to cope with the demands of
the late twentieth century. What should surprise us is that Muhammad’s
seventh-century recipe for life survived as long as it did, not that it now is increasingly
and obviously a catastrophe.
No alterations of Western
policies are going to fix Syria. Withdrawing American naval forces from the
Persian Gulf will not bring peace to Syria. Totally eliminating the state of
Israel will not bring peace to Syria! (Hezbollah and Hamas would probably start
fighting for control.) In fact, the course of action most likely to bring some
semblance of peace to Syria would be MORE, not less Western intervention!
Syria, and its capital
Damascus, lies at the very heart of the Arab world. That world is decomposing
before our eyes. Sunnis and Shi’a are killing each other in bloody massacres,
with Sunni jihadists videoing themselves as they gnaw at the organs of their
opponents. Shi’a label their opponents “Takfiris”—apostates who can be killed
on sight. The sectarian fighting is spreading into Iraq and Lebanon. How in the
world can anyone watch what is happening and not understand that these people
are killing each other BECAUSE of religion? And that religion is Islam!
If Christians, Jews, or Atheists are killed, it’s because they are by-standers,
not players in the Syrian drama. (And, yes, Europeans killed each other by the
millions from the Protestant Reformation until the end of the Thirty Years War—for
religion!)
I made this argument to a
friend a few weeks back, as the basic outlines of this argument formed in my
mind. His counter was that, while all this was true, it wasn’t that long ago
that we witnessed similar barbarism in the non-Islamic world. In the 1930s the
Japanese committed atrocities against, not only Westerners, but also fellow
Asians--Koreans, Filipinos, Chinese, and others. In Europe the Nazis behaved
barbarically against Jews, Poles, Gypsies, the Russians, and assorted other
peoples. True, all very true. And, I added, how did the Japanese and Germans
fare given their behavior? What did Tokyo and Berlin look like in 1945? In
other words, drawing such parallels ought not to be an exercise meant to
somehow excuse a behavior, but rather to serve as a warning of the dire
consequences that may well be on their way to the inhabitants of the Islamic
world.
Syria should make it clear to
everyone that the Islam is seriously ill. It is dying before our eyes. The still
living corpse is already beginning to rot, but we avert our eyes, smile, spray
some cologne about, and pretend we smell not a thing.
And this is the grim reality
that Tony Blair, who used to claim that the bin Laden’s of the world had
“hijacked” Islam, is only now beginning to comprehend, and that President Obama
faces as a stark policy choice in Syria. Some pundits advocate intervention;
others non-intervention. All admit that there is no obvious or easy choice of
action, or inaction. But the Syrian experience—the putrification of Islam—is
the reality Obama faces, even if he has yet himself to recognize it for what it
is. There is no obvious course to follow in Syria because there is, by
definition, no treatment for terminal illness. There is only burial.
Ethiopians Fire Back at Egypt
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Jun-07/219659-ethiopia-summons-egypts-ambassador-over-nile-dam.ashx#axzz2VSjXGJrX
Didn't like what they were hearing from Egyptian politicians.
Didn't like what they were hearing from Egyptian politicians.
Thursday, June 6, 2013
Qaradawi's Blunder?
http://www.majalla.com/eng/2013/06/article55242058
This is a very interesting peice that concludes that the Sunni calls from a jihad against Assad are tactical errors that made actually help to lead to a larger problem in the Arab world.
This is a very interesting peice that concludes that the Sunni calls from a jihad against Assad are tactical errors that made actually help to lead to a larger problem in the Arab world.
Saudi Grand Mufti on Hezbollah
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2013/06/06/Saudi-Grand-Mufti-praises-Qaradawi-s-stance-on-Hezbollah.html
If you take Qaradawi's call from a few days ago, and this one, what we have now is a fairly clear call for a holy war against the Shi'a in Syria. And add to that a new call for jihad from Qaeda al-Jihad.
http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Al-Qaida-leader-calls-for-Jihad-against-Israel-315636
You might say we have a perfect jihadist storm on the horizon. But, oddly enough, it's not headed our way! It's heading for Nasrallah and Assad.
But the question remains: what in the hell is the US supposed to do? Do we side with the jhadists? Do we really want to be in league with al Qaeda in Syria? But if not, then do we side with Assad, and Iran? Or do we sit back and watch as another hundred thousand people get massacred?
I think this is that 3:00 AM call that Hillary talked about way back in 2008.
If you take Qaradawi's call from a few days ago, and this one, what we have now is a fairly clear call for a holy war against the Shi'a in Syria. And add to that a new call for jihad from Qaeda al-Jihad.
http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Al-Qaida-leader-calls-for-Jihad-against-Israel-315636
You might say we have a perfect jihadist storm on the horizon. But, oddly enough, it's not headed our way! It's heading for Nasrallah and Assad.
But the question remains: what in the hell is the US supposed to do? Do we side with the jhadists? Do we really want to be in league with al Qaeda in Syria? But if not, then do we side with Assad, and Iran? Or do we sit back and watch as another hundred thousand people get massacred?
I think this is that 3:00 AM call that Hillary talked about way back in 2008.
Syria 2013/Spain 1937?
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/2013/06/06/From-Guernica-to-Qusayr.html
That's the comparison made in this editorial, with Qusair being the new Guernica.
But if the parallel is valid, then Assad is going to win.
That's the comparison made in this editorial, with Qusair being the new Guernica.
But if the parallel is valid, then Assad is going to win.
Interview with Hezbollah Quasair Veteran
https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/interviews/hezbollah-fighter-details-ops-in-qusayr
Here's the quote that caught my eye.
Does the war waged by Hezbollah against the Syrian rebels bear any similarity with the war with Israel?
It’s actually very different from Lebanon, with the exception of the battles of Bint Jbeil (in the south), where the terrain and towns with houses built very close together are in many ways similar to Qusayr. Elite and special forces that are now deployed in Qusayr are using the training in street fighting they received in Iran, which was done in mock cities specifically built for this purpose.
Here's the quote that caught my eye.
Does the war waged by Hezbollah against the Syrian rebels bear any similarity with the war with Israel?
It’s actually very different from Lebanon, with the exception of the battles of Bint Jbeil (in the south), where the terrain and towns with houses built very close together are in many ways similar to Qusayr. Elite and special forces that are now deployed in Qusayr are using the training in street fighting they received in Iran, which was done in mock cities specifically built for this purpose.
"Hezbollah: Victory of Qusayr Severe Blow to US-Israeli-Takfiri Scheme"
Hezbollah: Victory of Qusayr Severe Blow to US-Israeli-Takfiri Scheme
Yea, they got that right. But have no fear! The Obama administration has condemned the victory!
http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/White-House-condemns-Syrian-govt-assault-on-Qusair-315605
Yea, they got that right. But have no fear! The Obama administration has condemned the victory!
http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/White-House-condemns-Syrian-govt-assault-on-Qusair-315605
Wednesday, June 5, 2013
"Smart Diplomacy" in Action!
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“Smart Diplomacy” in Action!
As we consider the prospects of American policy with regard
Syria, it is all too easy to see in the day-to-day events of the past two years
inaction rooted in the incompetence of the Obama administration. But what if we
were to look at that record not with an eye toward proving incompetence, but instead
to discern the outlines of an intelligent policy? What would such a policy have
to resemble?
The downsides of American intervention in Syria are many and
obvious. We could very easily help to overthrow Assad only to find that we’ve
placed an inveterate group of anti-American jihadists in power in Damascus.
Alternatively, if we continue to do nothing the butchery in
Syria will continue with tens of thousands of additional civilians killed. The
the growing sectarian divisions evident in Syria could very well accelerate and
consume not just Syria, but also Iraq, Lebanon, and Jordan, destabilizing a
huge swath of the region between the Mediterranean and the Iranian plateau.
That said, the current policy of inaction by the Obama
administration, if we assume it is a conscious choice, would have to: 1) accept
the deaths of thousands of additional Arabs in Syria, and 2) accept the dangers
of the spread of sectarian strife from the Mediterranean to the Euphrates, and
all that entails.
Such an assumption would suggest that the Obama
administration, perhaps in response to the reality checks that came in the wake
of the “Arab Spring,” has concluded that the Islamic world is doomed and the
implosion that is coming is beyond the capabilities of the United States, and
the West, to shape or contain. Hence our inaction, despite the course of events.
In other words, the only general strategy toward the region
that is congruent with current Obama policy is one that has basically written
off the Arab, and perhaps even more broadly, the Islamic world!
That’s right! The Obama that the American right so likes to
castigate as an inveterate liberal actually has adopted a policy that is the
most cold-hearted and bloody realpolitik
approach of the modern era! Barack Obama has decided that we will sit back and
watch as the world’s Arabs massacre each other in a spasm of violence that may
ultimately engulf the entire region. But isn’t it better that they kill each
other than us! In short, Obama’s new anti-terrorism policy is to let our
enemies, and potential enemies in the Islamic world, massacre each other, while
we re-focus our efforts on rebuilding our own economy and society.
Alternatively, the Obama administration is simply
incompetent.
Qusair Falls to Assad and Hezbollah
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Jun-05/219487-syrian-army-restores-security-in-qusair-cracks-down-on-terrorists-sana.ashx#axzz2VCTqVZrL
Next stop Aleppo.
Too early to say that the rebels have lost, but they definitely are losing.
Here is the official Iran announcement of the victory over the "Takfiris."
http://217.25.54.55/en/News/80685314/Politic/Abdollahian_congratulates_on_al-Qasir_liberation
Next stop Aleppo.
Too early to say that the rebels have lost, but they definitely are losing.
Here is the official Iran announcement of the victory over the "Takfiris."
http://217.25.54.55/en/News/80685314/Politic/Abdollahian_congratulates_on_al-Qasir_liberation
Tuesday, June 4, 2013
Hussein Ibish on the "Real" Islamophobes
https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentaryanalysis/the-worst-islamophobes
"For all the harm purveyors of the standard Islamophobic narrative undoubtedly cause, the worst Islamophobes – indeed in many ways the real Islamophobes – are the violent Muslim extremists who seem bent on providing Islamophobic narratives with some basis in fact"
"For all the harm purveyors of the standard Islamophobic narrative undoubtedly cause, the worst Islamophobes – indeed in many ways the real Islamophobes – are the violent Muslim extremists who seem bent on providing Islamophobic narratives with some basis in fact"
4000 Hezbollah Fighters near Aleppo
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/Jun-04/219388-4000-hezbollah-fighters-reach-rebel-held-aleppo-fsa.ashx#axzz2VCTqVZrL
Previous estimates were that Hezbollah had 3,000-4,000 fighters in Syria. Now the estimates run between 10,000 and 12,000.
The Syrians have just cleared a key area near Damascus. If they can secure Qusair and re-take Aleppo, that may well break the resistance.
We've seen this same back and forth before, in Libya. Qaddafi looked like he was finished, but then he recovered and started regaining ground. As he did so, the massacres became more frequent and, finally, the West intervened.
Is Assad's forces can secure Qusair, and begin a new offensive against Aleppo, Syria's largest city, there will in all probability be innumerable massacres and floods of refugees as the people who supported the various rebel factions flee for their lives. Of course, most of the refugees and victims of these new massacres will be Sunnis, and the perpetrators will be Shi'a. The hue and cry from the Sunni Arabs will be profound, and hard to ignore for Obama.
Previous estimates were that Hezbollah had 3,000-4,000 fighters in Syria. Now the estimates run between 10,000 and 12,000.
The Syrians have just cleared a key area near Damascus. If they can secure Qusair and re-take Aleppo, that may well break the resistance.
We've seen this same back and forth before, in Libya. Qaddafi looked like he was finished, but then he recovered and started regaining ground. As he did so, the massacres became more frequent and, finally, the West intervened.
Is Assad's forces can secure Qusair, and begin a new offensive against Aleppo, Syria's largest city, there will in all probability be innumerable massacres and floods of refugees as the people who supported the various rebel factions flee for their lives. Of course, most of the refugees and victims of these new massacres will be Sunnis, and the perpetrators will be Shi'a. The hue and cry from the Sunni Arabs will be profound, and hard to ignore for Obama.
Egyptian Cabinet Debates Attacks on Ethiopia ON LIVE TV!
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2013/06/04/Egyptian-politicians-suggest-sabotaging-Ethiopia-s-new-Nile-dam.html
Classic FUBAR! Morsi holds cabinet meeting on Ethiopian dam; forgets to tell cabinet it's on live TV. Some of the ministers propose terrorism against Ethiopians. ----According to The Associated Press, in the meeting, Younis Makhyoun, leader of an ultraconservative Islamist party, said Egypt should back rebels in Ethiopia or, as a last resort, destroy the dam. He said Egypt made a “strategic error” when it did not object to the dam’s construction.
Makhyoun said Ethiopia is “fragile” because of rebel movements inside the country. “We can communicate with them and use them as a bargaining chip against the Ethiopian government,” he said.
“If all this fails, then there is no choice left for Egypt but to play the final card, which is using the intelligence service to destroy the dam,” said Makhyoun, whose Nour party won about 25 percent of parliament’s seats in elections in late 2011 and early 2012.----
Classic FUBAR! Morsi holds cabinet meeting on Ethiopian dam; forgets to tell cabinet it's on live TV. Some of the ministers propose terrorism against Ethiopians. ----According to The Associated Press, in the meeting, Younis Makhyoun, leader of an ultraconservative Islamist party, said Egypt should back rebels in Ethiopia or, as a last resort, destroy the dam. He said Egypt made a “strategic error” when it did not object to the dam’s construction.
Makhyoun said Ethiopia is “fragile” because of rebel movements inside the country. “We can communicate with them and use them as a bargaining chip against the Ethiopian government,” he said.
“If all this fails, then there is no choice left for Egypt but to play the final card, which is using the intelligence service to destroy the dam,” said Makhyoun, whose Nour party won about 25 percent of parliament’s seats in elections in late 2011 and early 2012.----
Putin: No Missiles in Syria Yet
http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Putin-says-Russia-has-not-sent-Syria-S300-missiles-315398
So Assad was lying when he said they were there, right? Assad, lie? Imagine that.
And Hezbollah lied, too.
http://www.almanar.com.lb/english/adetails.php?eid=94299&cid=23&fromval=1&frid=23&seccatid=20&s1=1
So Assad was lying when he said they were there, right? Assad, lie? Imagine that.
And Hezbollah lied, too.
http://www.almanar.com.lb/english/adetails.php?eid=94299&cid=23&fromval=1&frid=23&seccatid=20&s1=1
Monday, June 3, 2013
Kerry and New York Time: Obama Moved Late in Syria
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/04/world/middleeast/kerry-syria.html?_r=0
“This is a very difficult process, which we come to late,” Mr. Kerry said after meeting at the State Department with Poland’s foreign minister, Radoslaw Sikorski.
Duh!
“This is a very difficult process, which we come to late,” Mr. Kerry said after meeting at the State Department with Poland’s foreign minister, Radoslaw Sikorski.
Duh!
Erdogan Claims Situation Calming down; Flies to Morocco
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2013/06/201363182732565597.html
Not actually, Al Jazeera reports, as violence continues.
Not actually, Al Jazeera reports, as violence continues.
Saturday, June 1, 2013
The New Kadesh!
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/05/foreign-fighters-key-to-decisive-battle-of-qusayr.html
Interesting! the fighting Qusair, the scene of heavy fighting in western Syria, was known in biblical time as KADESH! It's where the Pharaoh Ramses fought the Hittites.
Interesting! the fighting Qusair, the scene of heavy fighting in western Syria, was known in biblical time as KADESH! It's where the Pharaoh Ramses fought the Hittites.
Turkish Unrest Spreads
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2013/06/02/Turkey-headline-.html
The government withdrew from the park, but far from calming the situation, it seems to have sparked wider protests.
The government withdrew from the park, but far from calming the situation, it seems to have sparked wider protests.
More Troubling Signs
http://www.timesofisrael.com/saudis-gulf-states-unnerved-by-us-pivot-away-from-middle-east/
Nixon tried this in the early '70s. He came up with the "Twin Pillars" policy. It failed and sparked an arms race between Iraq and Iran, the Iranian revolution, the Iran-Iraq War, the Tanker War of 87-88, and the First Gulf War of 1990-1991.
Nixon tried this in the early '70s. He came up with the "Twin Pillars" policy. It failed and sparked an arms race between Iraq and Iran, the Iranian revolution, the Iran-Iraq War, the Tanker War of 87-88, and the First Gulf War of 1990-1991.
Saudis to Extend Power Grid to Egypt
http://www.arabnews.com/node/277672
Several points.
Several points.
- This will clearly help Egypt economically and developmentally;
- This will also make Egypt increasingly dependent on the Saudis;
- The huge costs of this program will be funded by higher oil prices, paid for by those who import Saudi oil;
- I'd interpret this as a clear statement about Saudi fears for Egypt and a Saudi desire to look to Egypt as its muscle, given the fecklessness, in Saudi eyes, of American policy.
Rockets from Syria Hit Lebanon
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Local-News/2013/Jun-01/219113-over-16-shells-from-syria-hit-north-bekaa-towns.ashx#axzz2UylGOc2X
No doubt, the targets were in Shi'a areas.
No doubt, the targets were in Shi'a areas.
Friday, May 31, 2013
Thursday, May 30, 2013
Assad Changes Focus toward Israel
http://www.almanar.com.lb/english/adetails.php?eid=95690&cid=23&fromval=1&frid=23&seccatid=20&s1=1
Here is part of the transcript of Assad's interview.I believe it was with Press TV, which is an Iranian outfit, but this account comes from Al Manar, which is Hezbollah's media arm.
What I find interesting is Assad's attempt to connect the Syrian rebels with Israel, and the forces of "resistance" to Israel with support for Assad.
I reassure that the battle, the developments in Al-Qusayr, and all the wail we hear are related to "Israel". They want to strangle the resistance. This old-new battle takes in each time a different shape. Now, the important thing is not Al-Qusayr as a city, but the borders. They want to strangle the resistance by land and sea, and here lies a question. It is said that the resistance should direct its arms at the enemy, hence at the South. This was said in May, 7 when some agents for Israel in Lebanon tried to meddle in the resistance's communication network. They said that the resistance shifted its weapons to the inside. They said the same thing about the Syrian Army. They said that the Syrian Army should fight on the borders with Israel. We clearly said that the army is fighting the enemy wherever he is present. When the enemy is in the North, or comes to the North, we move towards the North or the East or the West. The same applies to the resistance. Why is Hezbollah present on the borders in Lebanon or in Syria? Because the battle is against the Israeli enemy and its agents in Syria or in Lebanon.
In other words, Assad's strategy is simple and hardly novel: BLAME THE JEWS!
And it may work! If the IDF strikes weapons being turned over to Hezbollah, it will reinforce Assad's point. It reminds me of 1991 when the US launched Desert Storm's air campaign and Saddam Hussein promptly fired Scuds into Israel, hoping for their response.
The way the Bush administration avoided that trap was to take up the Scud hunting campaign to preempt Israeli action. But will Obama do the same this time, or will he stand by as the IDF strikes?
As I've said before, there is no clear and easy answer for Obama in this crisis. But he needs to do something, and not try to "lead from behind." The Syrian crisis is much larger than Syria. It now is linked to the Iranian nuclear issue, stability in Iraq and Lebanon, US-Russia relations, and the possibilities of some larger regional war. The Iranians and Russians are doing everything they can to place Obama in a difficult position. I suspect that they have concluded that he will not act, and they can get away with whatever they want to do in Syria. The worst they'll face will be US and UN protestations and unenforced red lines.
If Obama did decide to take action, with whom would he take it? Clearly, the Russians and Chinese would veto any UN action. NATO is divided, with the Canadians and the Germans against action. So if Obama did decide to do something, he'd have to resort to a "coalition of the willing" to go along with him, primarily France, Great Britain, and the Gulf Arabs. And that is his best case.
Here is part of the transcript of Assad's interview.I believe it was with Press TV, which is an Iranian outfit, but this account comes from Al Manar, which is Hezbollah's media arm.
What I find interesting is Assad's attempt to connect the Syrian rebels with Israel, and the forces of "resistance" to Israel with support for Assad.
I reassure that the battle, the developments in Al-Qusayr, and all the wail we hear are related to "Israel". They want to strangle the resistance. This old-new battle takes in each time a different shape. Now, the important thing is not Al-Qusayr as a city, but the borders. They want to strangle the resistance by land and sea, and here lies a question. It is said that the resistance should direct its arms at the enemy, hence at the South. This was said in May, 7 when some agents for Israel in Lebanon tried to meddle in the resistance's communication network. They said that the resistance shifted its weapons to the inside. They said the same thing about the Syrian Army. They said that the Syrian Army should fight on the borders with Israel. We clearly said that the army is fighting the enemy wherever he is present. When the enemy is in the North, or comes to the North, we move towards the North or the East or the West. The same applies to the resistance. Why is Hezbollah present on the borders in Lebanon or in Syria? Because the battle is against the Israeli enemy and its agents in Syria or in Lebanon.
In other words, Assad's strategy is simple and hardly novel: BLAME THE JEWS!
And it may work! If the IDF strikes weapons being turned over to Hezbollah, it will reinforce Assad's point. It reminds me of 1991 when the US launched Desert Storm's air campaign and Saddam Hussein promptly fired Scuds into Israel, hoping for their response.
The way the Bush administration avoided that trap was to take up the Scud hunting campaign to preempt Israeli action. But will Obama do the same this time, or will he stand by as the IDF strikes?
As I've said before, there is no clear and easy answer for Obama in this crisis. But he needs to do something, and not try to "lead from behind." The Syrian crisis is much larger than Syria. It now is linked to the Iranian nuclear issue, stability in Iraq and Lebanon, US-Russia relations, and the possibilities of some larger regional war. The Iranians and Russians are doing everything they can to place Obama in a difficult position. I suspect that they have concluded that he will not act, and they can get away with whatever they want to do in Syria. The worst they'll face will be US and UN protestations and unenforced red lines.
If Obama did decide to take action, with whom would he take it? Clearly, the Russians and Chinese would veto any UN action. NATO is divided, with the Canadians and the Germans against action. So if Obama did decide to do something, he'd have to resort to a "coalition of the willing" to go along with him, primarily France, Great Britain, and the Gulf Arabs. And that is his best case.
The Sunni-Shi'a Civil War: An Arab Take
http://www.aawsat.net/2013/05/article55303546
I've been commenting about this danger for weeks. Lest anyone think it's all in my Islamophobic head, here is an Arab opinion piece lamenting the deepening and spreading sectarian fighting.
"After recognizing that civil war is now the reality on the ground, many refused to acknowledge that it transformed once again, into a sectarian war. Opposition representatives claim that Syria will not fall into the quagmire of sectarian violence and that the Syrian opposition represents all communities. But talk is one thing, and reality another. What is happening on the ground in terms of killings, displacement, and exactly who is being targeted makes it crystal clear that this is a sectarian war with all the inherent ugliness and brutality, and it is tearing Syria apart"
I've been commenting about this danger for weeks. Lest anyone think it's all in my Islamophobic head, here is an Arab opinion piece lamenting the deepening and spreading sectarian fighting.
"After recognizing that civil war is now the reality on the ground, many refused to acknowledge that it transformed once again, into a sectarian war. Opposition representatives claim that Syria will not fall into the quagmire of sectarian violence and that the Syrian opposition represents all communities. But talk is one thing, and reality another. What is happening on the ground in terms of killings, displacement, and exactly who is being targeted makes it crystal clear that this is a sectarian war with all the inherent ugliness and brutality, and it is tearing Syria apart"
Situation in Iraq Deteriorates
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/05/sadr-maliki-iraq-warning.html
Sadr is openly maneuvering to undermine Maliki.
Sadr is openly maneuvering to undermine Maliki.
Syrian Rebels Demand Hezbollah withdrawal before Talks
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2013/05/30/Syria-opposition-says-no-peace-talks-until-Hezbollah-Iran-halt-invasion-.html
I doubt this is what the Obama administration had in mind yesterday when it demanded that Hezbollah withdraw and termed its presence in Syria "unacceptable." But the Syrian rebels have jumped on the wagon and are now likewise calling for the withdrawal, as a prerequisite for attending the talks sponsored by Russia and the US.
My interpretation is that the Syrian rebels are upping the pressure on the Obama administration to act. Clearly, the US wants the rebels to attend the conference, but Obama is hardly in a strong position to pressure them to do so when all they are demanding is something that he himself has demanded--namely Hezbollah's withdrawal.
In other words, the wily rebels just outmaneuvered Obama, because Hezbollah is not going to pull out and the rebels didn't really want to talk anyway. So now Obama will again look weak and, through his actions, appear to have thrown the proverbial wrench into the Russian sponsored talks. Alternatively, he could act, which is what the rebels want.
File this one under "smart diplomacy."
UPDATE! Now Al Jazeera is reporting that the Syrian rebels are also demanding that the Syrian army withdraw from Qusayr, the town recently captured in tough fighting. I wouldn't hold my breath in expectation of these talks. And again, this puts even more pressure on Obama.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/05/201353012242663209.html
I doubt this is what the Obama administration had in mind yesterday when it demanded that Hezbollah withdraw and termed its presence in Syria "unacceptable." But the Syrian rebels have jumped on the wagon and are now likewise calling for the withdrawal, as a prerequisite for attending the talks sponsored by Russia and the US.
My interpretation is that the Syrian rebels are upping the pressure on the Obama administration to act. Clearly, the US wants the rebels to attend the conference, but Obama is hardly in a strong position to pressure them to do so when all they are demanding is something that he himself has demanded--namely Hezbollah's withdrawal.
In other words, the wily rebels just outmaneuvered Obama, because Hezbollah is not going to pull out and the rebels didn't really want to talk anyway. So now Obama will again look weak and, through his actions, appear to have thrown the proverbial wrench into the Russian sponsored talks. Alternatively, he could act, which is what the rebels want.
File this one under "smart diplomacy."
UPDATE! Now Al Jazeera is reporting that the Syrian rebels are also demanding that the Syrian army withdraw from Qusayr, the town recently captured in tough fighting. I wouldn't hold my breath in expectation of these talks. And again, this puts even more pressure on Obama.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/05/201353012242663209.html
Ethiopian Dam a "Declaration of War"!
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/72730/Egypt/Politics-/Ethiopia-dam-is-declaration-of-war-AlGamaa-AlIslam.aspx
This is a follow up to yesterday's post about the growing friction between Egypt and Ethiopia over the latter's plan for a dam on the upper Nile. This leader of one of Egypt's Islamist groups takes a hardline stand.
Yesterday's post is here:
http://betterinformedcomment.blogspot.com/2013/05/egyptian-ethiopian-water-troubles.html
And here is another story about the Egyptians summoning the Ethiopian ambassador over the issue.
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/72655/Egypt/Politics-/Egypt-summons-Ethiopian-ambassador-over-Blue-Nile-.aspx
This is a follow up to yesterday's post about the growing friction between Egypt and Ethiopia over the latter's plan for a dam on the upper Nile. This leader of one of Egypt's Islamist groups takes a hardline stand.
Yesterday's post is here:
http://betterinformedcomment.blogspot.com/2013/05/egyptian-ethiopian-water-troubles.html
And here is another story about the Egyptians summoning the Ethiopian ambassador over the issue.
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/72655/Egypt/Politics-/Egypt-summons-Ethiopian-ambassador-over-Blue-Nile-.aspx
Wednesday, May 29, 2013
Obama the Incompetent!
https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentaryanalysis/washington-the-incompetent
So says this Arab editorial, and it's of a kind that I'm seeing more often as the days pass and the Syrian crisis drags on. There have always been, and always will be, hostile voices in the Arab world when it comes to US policy in the region. We back the wrong people; we are tools of the Jews. If you study the region, you grow to expect that.
But this is new. Increasingly, the editorialists aren't angry about the positions Obama is taking; they are frustrated because they can't figure out WHAT Obama is doing. They generally end up concluding that he doesn't know what in the hell he is doing. Hence this editorial that simply labels his administration "Incompetent."
People will respect a policy they understand and agree with. People may respect a policy they understand but disagree with, given the power of the United States. But people--in the Arab world, in Tehran, in Moscow, and in Ankara--will not respect incompetence.
So says this Arab editorial, and it's of a kind that I'm seeing more often as the days pass and the Syrian crisis drags on. There have always been, and always will be, hostile voices in the Arab world when it comes to US policy in the region. We back the wrong people; we are tools of the Jews. If you study the region, you grow to expect that.
But this is new. Increasingly, the editorialists aren't angry about the positions Obama is taking; they are frustrated because they can't figure out WHAT Obama is doing. They generally end up concluding that he doesn't know what in the hell he is doing. Hence this editorial that simply labels his administration "Incompetent."
People will respect a policy they understand and agree with. People may respect a policy they understand but disagree with, given the power of the United States. But people--in the Arab world, in Tehran, in Moscow, and in Ankara--will not respect incompetence.
More Syrian Chemical Attacks?
http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/UK-says-informs-UN-of-more-Syria-chemical-attacks-314740
The Brits say yes!
Where is that red line?
The Brits say yes!
Where is that red line?
FSA-Hezbollah Showdown?
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2013/05/28/FSA-gives-24-ultimatium-to-Hezbollah-fighters-in-Syria-.html
The link above reports the Free Syrian Army's ultimatum to Hezbollah to withdraw from Syria.
The link below reports that Hezbollah, far from withdrawing, has responded to the ultimatum by reinforcing its troops in Syria.
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2013/05/29/Hezbollah-sends-more-fighters-to-Syria-after-rebels-issue-ultimatum.html
Earlier, the FSA has warned that it will carry the fight into the Shi'ite areas of Lebanon.
As I have posted repeatedly, if you look at what is happening in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, you can clearly see evidence of a deepening sectarian struggle between Sunni and Shi'a Arabs. The Iranians, I would argue, are now "all-in" with Assad, and the Russians are clearly increasing their support. On the other side, supporting the FSA, are the Turks, most of the Arab states in the Arabian peninsula, the Muslim Brotherhood, and assorted Sunni Jihadists. The EU is leaning ever more toward FSA support.
What is US policy? Obama is still working on that.
The link above reports the Free Syrian Army's ultimatum to Hezbollah to withdraw from Syria.
The link below reports that Hezbollah, far from withdrawing, has responded to the ultimatum by reinforcing its troops in Syria.
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2013/05/29/Hezbollah-sends-more-fighters-to-Syria-after-rebels-issue-ultimatum.html
Earlier, the FSA has warned that it will carry the fight into the Shi'ite areas of Lebanon.
As I have posted repeatedly, if you look at what is happening in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, you can clearly see evidence of a deepening sectarian struggle between Sunni and Shi'a Arabs. The Iranians, I would argue, are now "all-in" with Assad, and the Russians are clearly increasing their support. On the other side, supporting the FSA, are the Turks, most of the Arab states in the Arabian peninsula, the Muslim Brotherhood, and assorted Sunni Jihadists. The EU is leaning ever more toward FSA support.
What is US policy? Obama is still working on that.
Egyptian-Ethiopian Water Troubles
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/72655/Egypt/Politics-/Egypt-summons-Ethiopian-ambassador-over-Blue-Nile-.aspx
This is a follow up to several earlier posts about looming water fights in the Middle East, especially between Egypt and Ethiopia. Most of the Nile's water flow through Ethiopia, and the old agreements governing its handling were drawn up by the British and favored Egypt and Sudan, both of which at the time were under quasi-British control. During the 19th century Egypt and Ethiopia actually went to war.
The Ethiopians want to revise those old agreements, and are planning to build a huge dam on the upper Nile. The implications for that construction downstream in the Sudan and Egypt are unclear. Once the reservoir is full, the flow should be close to normal, or at least that is the hope. But obviously while the Ethiopians are filling the reservoir, flow down the Nile will decline. Exactly how that will impact Sudan and Egypt is unclear, and the matter of much speculation.
Some sources have been playing up the potential for discord. The Egyptians, until recently, have been playing down such reports. But this story suggests that, in fact, all is not well and that the Ethiopians are not proceeding as promised, at least as the Egyptians understand the situation.
This is a follow up to several earlier posts about looming water fights in the Middle East, especially between Egypt and Ethiopia. Most of the Nile's water flow through Ethiopia, and the old agreements governing its handling were drawn up by the British and favored Egypt and Sudan, both of which at the time were under quasi-British control. During the 19th century Egypt and Ethiopia actually went to war.
The Ethiopians want to revise those old agreements, and are planning to build a huge dam on the upper Nile. The implications for that construction downstream in the Sudan and Egypt are unclear. Once the reservoir is full, the flow should be close to normal, or at least that is the hope. But obviously while the Ethiopians are filling the reservoir, flow down the Nile will decline. Exactly how that will impact Sudan and Egypt is unclear, and the matter of much speculation.
Some sources have been playing up the potential for discord. The Egyptians, until recently, have been playing down such reports. But this story suggests that, in fact, all is not well and that the Ethiopians are not proceeding as promised, at least as the Egyptians understand the situation.
Tuesday, May 28, 2013
The Anbar Re-Awakening!
http://www.azzaman.com/english/?p=772
The province that was the sight of the American "surge," Anbar, and the turn-around in the Iraq war that came with it, is now the sight of the Iraqi army's biggest offensive since American withdrawal. The force includes 20,000 troops with armor and helicopter support.
"Anbar, of which the city of Ramadi is the provincial capital, was for years an al-Qaeda stronghold. But the terror group’s control of the province came to an end when Sunni tribal leaders turned their again against it.
But the population has risen again this time in mass protests against the government. Violence has accompanied these protests, leading to a security vacuum which al-Qaeda is trying to exploit."
The province that was the sight of the American "surge," Anbar, and the turn-around in the Iraq war that came with it, is now the sight of the Iraqi army's biggest offensive since American withdrawal. The force includes 20,000 troops with armor and helicopter support.
"Anbar, of which the city of Ramadi is the provincial capital, was for years an al-Qaeda stronghold. But the terror group’s control of the province came to an end when Sunni tribal leaders turned their again against it.
But the population has risen again this time in mass protests against the government. Violence has accompanied these protests, leading to a security vacuum which al-Qaeda is trying to exploit."
Syrians Prepare New Offensive
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/May-28/218614-regime-forces-ready-to-retake-syrias-aleppo-report.ashx
This time their target is Aleppo.
Assad's forces are clearly on a roll. If the West doesn't step up support for the rebels, Assad will win, and along with him Hezbollah and Iran.
And if we are going to act, we better do it sooner rather than later. Once the Russians get those new missiles set up in Syria, a no-fly zone may become more difficult, and may entail attacks against missile sights manned by Russian trainers.
If the Obama administration is considering a no-fly zone, they ought to do it now.
Maybe they'll wait until Aleppo falls to Assad?
This time their target is Aleppo.
Assad's forces are clearly on a roll. If the West doesn't step up support for the rebels, Assad will win, and along with him Hezbollah and Iran.
And if we are going to act, we better do it sooner rather than later. Once the Russians get those new missiles set up in Syria, a no-fly zone may become more difficult, and may entail attacks against missile sights manned by Russian trainers.
If the Obama administration is considering a no-fly zone, they ought to do it now.
Maybe they'll wait until Aleppo falls to Assad?
Monday, May 27, 2013
EU Arms Embargo Ends
http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/aljazeeraworld/2013/04/2013415114923968435.html
It seems they didn't so much vote to lift the embargo, as they failed to come up with the votes to maintain it. But it's off on 1 June and the sanctions against Assad remain in place.
This will place even more pressure on the Obama administration (as did Senator McCain's surprise call on the rebels inside Syria).
I guess this is all part and parcel of "leading from behind."
It seems they didn't so much vote to lift the embargo, as they failed to come up with the votes to maintain it. But it's off on 1 June and the sanctions against Assad remain in place.
This will place even more pressure on the Obama administration (as did Senator McCain's surprise call on the rebels inside Syria).
I guess this is all part and parcel of "leading from behind."
Sunday, May 26, 2013
Sunni-Shia Fighting Spreads to Beirut
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Local-News/2013/May-26/218363-rocket-hits-southern-beirut-suburb-wounds-4.ashx#axzz2URsJaylO
Lebanese Sunnis, I suspect, fire rockets into Hezbollah stronghold in south Beirut. With other sectarian fighting going on in Tripoli, the Sunni-Shia fighting in Syria and Iraq is slowly spreading go Lebanon, as Hezbollah throws its weight behind Assad.
Lebanese Sunnis, I suspect, fire rockets into Hezbollah stronghold in south Beirut. With other sectarian fighting going on in Tripoli, the Sunni-Shia fighting in Syria and Iraq is slowly spreading go Lebanon, as Hezbollah throws its weight behind Assad.
Saturday, May 25, 2013
Salafists Organizing in Lebanon
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Columnist/2013/May-25/218241-in-lebanon-salafists-are-on-the-move.ashx#axzz2UALX9nRK
Sunnis and Shi'a are already fighting in Tripoli. If the fighting in Syria continues, it is going to spread to Lebanon on a larger scale.
Sunnis and Shi'a are already fighting in Tripoli. If the fighting in Syria continues, it is going to spread to Lebanon on a larger scale.
Thursday, May 23, 2013
Monday, May 20, 2013
Iraq: 200+ Dead in Last Week
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/05/201352071548212347.html
Tribal leaders warn of full-scale civil war.
Tribal leaders warn of full-scale civil war.
Russians: Talks with NO Preconditions
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/71918/World/Region/Assad-foes-must-come-to-Syria-meeting-without-cond.aspx
Russians now saying parties must come to talks without preconditions. That's a big deal, especially for the US, given that Kerry has signed on to the talks. No preconditions means that Assad does not have to go, which is the US position.
So now what does Obama do? Does he back away from his "Assad must go" position, having already backed away from his chemical "red line"? Or do we not show up, and piss off the Russians?
I am sorry, but the more I watch this administration handle its first true crisis, the more it looks amateurish. These people aren't competent, and it's beginning to show. I hope we don't have to pay to large a price for their incompetence.
Russians now saying parties must come to talks without preconditions. That's a big deal, especially for the US, given that Kerry has signed on to the talks. No preconditions means that Assad does not have to go, which is the US position.
So now what does Obama do? Does he back away from his "Assad must go" position, having already backed away from his chemical "red line"? Or do we not show up, and piss off the Russians?
I am sorry, but the more I watch this administration handle its first true crisis, the more it looks amateurish. These people aren't competent, and it's beginning to show. I hope we don't have to pay to large a price for their incompetence.
Russian Press Threats against Turkey
http://rt.com/op-edge/turkey-syria-erdongan-clark-477/
This report, citing non-Russian experts, nevertheless predicts that if the Turks don't back off their support of the rebels in Syria, Turkey itself will suffer more terrorism.
This is yet anther indication of the ways the Syrian crisis is spreading. I have posted before, several times, about the growing spread of sectarian--Sunni-Shia--conflict from Lebanon to the Iranian border. Now it seems possible that this fighting could spread northwards into Sunni Turkey as well.
It will be interesting, if this does happen, to see how the Turks respond. After all, the Turkish PM is scheduled to go to Gaza, which is run by Hamas. Hamas is Sunni, but it gets its support, along with Hezbollah, from Iran.
This report, citing non-Russian experts, nevertheless predicts that if the Turks don't back off their support of the rebels in Syria, Turkey itself will suffer more terrorism.
This is yet anther indication of the ways the Syrian crisis is spreading. I have posted before, several times, about the growing spread of sectarian--Sunni-Shia--conflict from Lebanon to the Iranian border. Now it seems possible that this fighting could spread northwards into Sunni Turkey as well.
It will be interesting, if this does happen, to see how the Turks respond. After all, the Turkish PM is scheduled to go to Gaza, which is run by Hamas. Hamas is Sunni, but it gets its support, along with Hezbollah, from Iran.
Syrians Continue Advance
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/May-20/217681-assad-hezbollah-forces-advance-into-qusair.ashx#axzz2TqsmZ2pr
In fact, it appears to be going well enough that the Iranians are covering the success by Assad's forces, supported by Hezbollah.
http://tehrantimes.com/middle-east/107847-syria-army-advances-on-qusayr
And this piece from Mehr explains why the Syrian successes are important.
http://old.mehrnews.com/en/newsdetail.aspx?NewsID=1822167
"Al-Qusayr is a strategic region and for its mountainous terrain, it overlooks other surrounding regions, covering all connecting roads. As said before, Al-Qusayr was providing the route for arms and forces entry to Syria, and functioned as headquarters for terrorists to manage the affairs from and sent troops to different regions.
Having putting full siege on Al-Qusayr, Syrian army managed a great victory by overtaking large part of the city. Currently, whole south, west and east of Al-Qusayr are controlled by Syrian army, with northern part being only in terrorists’ control. During overtake, hundreds of terrorists were captured, destroying their spirit, and inflicting heavy costs to opposition forces."
And note this claim that the Israelis have special forces units operating in Syria helping the Al-Nusra Front.
"Khabar Press news website reported Israeli Special Forces have entered Al-Qusayr to help Al-Nusra Front. Intelligence agents entered Syria from Lebanon to prevent Syrian army progress towards Al-Qusayr."
I find it hard to believe that the IDF would help Al Nusra itself. But what better way to de-legitimize Al Nusra than by connecting it to the Jews.
In fact, it appears to be going well enough that the Iranians are covering the success by Assad's forces, supported by Hezbollah.
http://tehrantimes.com/middle-east/107847-syria-army-advances-on-qusayr
And this piece from Mehr explains why the Syrian successes are important.
http://old.mehrnews.com/en/newsdetail.aspx?NewsID=1822167
"Al-Qusayr is a strategic region and for its mountainous terrain, it overlooks other surrounding regions, covering all connecting roads. As said before, Al-Qusayr was providing the route for arms and forces entry to Syria, and functioned as headquarters for terrorists to manage the affairs from and sent troops to different regions.
Having putting full siege on Al-Qusayr, Syrian army managed a great victory by overtaking large part of the city. Currently, whole south, west and east of Al-Qusayr are controlled by Syrian army, with northern part being only in terrorists’ control. During overtake, hundreds of terrorists were captured, destroying their spirit, and inflicting heavy costs to opposition forces."
And note this claim that the Israelis have special forces units operating in Syria helping the Al-Nusra Front.
"Khabar Press news website reported Israeli Special Forces have entered Al-Qusayr to help Al-Nusra Front. Intelligence agents entered Syria from Lebanon to prevent Syrian army progress towards Al-Qusayr."
I find it hard to believe that the IDF would help Al Nusra itself. But what better way to de-legitimize Al Nusra than by connecting it to the Jews.
Saturday, May 18, 2013
Iranians Declare Al-Nusra Takfiris!
http://old.mehrnews.com/en/newsdetail.aspx?NewsID=1822030
This is from an Iranian source. What is interesting isn't that the Al-Nusra fighters attacked and desecrated the cemetery and the tomb, it's that the Iranians have declared Al-Nusra fighters"Takfiris," i.e., apostates. Usually, it's the Sunni Salafists who declare their enemies Takfiris, because you can kill apostates. For example, you declare Anwar al-Sadat a Takfir, and then you can assassinate him. But in this case this seems to be an official position taken by the Iranian government.
This is from an Iranian source. What is interesting isn't that the Al-Nusra fighters attacked and desecrated the cemetery and the tomb, it's that the Iranians have declared Al-Nusra fighters"Takfiris," i.e., apostates. Usually, it's the Sunni Salafists who declare their enemies Takfiris, because you can kill apostates. For example, you declare Anwar al-Sadat a Takfir, and then you can assassinate him. But in this case this seems to be an official position taken by the Iranian government.
Arab View of Obama's Betrayal
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2013/05/18/Obama-s-betrayal-.html
"In light of the events of the past two years, the U.S. administration’s adoption of Moscow’s interpretation of the Geneva Agreement represents a betrayal of the Syrian people which is, in many ways, parallel to Obama’s betrayal of the Palestinian people after the promises he made on his first presidential visit to the Middle East."
Note that this author has the number of Syrian dead up to 100,000.
"In light of the events of the past two years, the U.S. administration’s adoption of Moscow’s interpretation of the Geneva Agreement represents a betrayal of the Syrian people which is, in many ways, parallel to Obama’s betrayal of the Palestinian people after the promises he made on his first presidential visit to the Middle East."
Note that this author has the number of Syrian dead up to 100,000.
Analysis of Turkish Policy
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/05/obama-erdogan-syria-challenges.html
Several interesting insights, from a Turkish perspective.
Several interesting insights, from a Turkish perspective.
Will Syrian Fighting Spread into Lebanon?
https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentaryanalysis/the-imminent-hezbollah-nusra-war
Lebanese source fears that it will.
Lebanese source fears that it will.
More Syrian Chemicals?
http://www.timesofisrael.com/syrian-rebels-dozens-hurt-in-chemical-weapons-attack-in-damascus/
According to this report, and claims from the rebels that they have killed Hezbollah and Iranian fighters.
According to this report, and claims from the rebels that they have killed Hezbollah and Iranian fighters.
Friday, May 17, 2013
Erdogan: The New Ottomans?
http://old.mehrnews.com/en/newsdetail.aspx?NewsID=1821592
This is very interesting. The piece argues that he has "spared no opportunity to revive the Ottoman empire; spends public budgets for supporting FSA and Al-Nusra front terrorists in Syria; adopts Arabic traditional attire; and, poses himself as kings for those who have abandoned their homes to escape the terrorism supported by Erdoğan, and live in camps where tens of women are being raped and harassed on daily basis, or where, a few days ago, a Syrian child was arrested for objecting the police for harassing one of his female relatives."
This is very interesting. The piece argues that he has "spared no opportunity to revive the Ottoman empire; spends public budgets for supporting FSA and Al-Nusra front terrorists in Syria; adopts Arabic traditional attire; and, poses himself as kings for those who have abandoned their homes to escape the terrorism supported by Erdoğan, and live in camps where tens of women are being raped and harassed on daily basis, or where, a few days ago, a Syrian child was arrested for objecting the police for harassing one of his female relatives."
Interesting Iranian Take on Syria
http://old.mehrnews.com/en/newsdetail.aspx?NewsID=1821928
The Iranians in this report claim that the Turkish PM's meeting with Obama was designed to assure the removal of Assad.
At the same time the Russians are reporting that Kerry's talks with their FM show that Obama is committed to talks that will include Assad or his representative, in other words that Obama has backed away from his Assad must go position.
If you read the American press reports, it seems as if both these assertions are true! Of course, the problem is that if they are both true there is no US policy. Or looked at another way, our policy is to agree with whomever were are conversing. So we assure Erdogan that Assad has to go, but we assure the Russians that we agree with them about negotiations that in their mind would allow Assad to remain in power.
I am afraid that it is becoming apparent that, with regard to Syria, we don't have a policy. Obama doesn't know what to do.
To be fair, I can understand that. Assad is a butcher, a client of Tehran, and the desire to get rid of him is thus logical and clearly in the interests of the US.
On the other hand, recent reports make it clear that the dominant force within the rebel alliance are jihadists, and themselves butchers who massacre prisoners, mutilate the dead, and eat their hearts and livers.
Moreover, Assad's forces seem to be rebounding, and their Russian allies are sending cash, ships, and now improved air defense missiles that, once in place, will make any no-fly zone much harder to implement. Is Obama going to send US air assets into action over Tartus if Russian naval vessels are in the roadstead?
So Obama is being pressured by his Turkish ally to act, while simultaneously he is being cautioned, and warned, by his Russian buddy to not act.
To be honest, if I were president I do not know what I'd do. If Obama takes a more active course, alongside the Turks, he runs big risks with the Russians and the prospect that even if his policy is successful, he'll be blamed for helping jihadists take power in Damascus. If he does nothing, and allows the killing to drag on for another year or more, he'll piss off the Turks and our Sunni Arab allies and look indecisive and weak.
The Iranians in this report claim that the Turkish PM's meeting with Obama was designed to assure the removal of Assad.
At the same time the Russians are reporting that Kerry's talks with their FM show that Obama is committed to talks that will include Assad or his representative, in other words that Obama has backed away from his Assad must go position.
If you read the American press reports, it seems as if both these assertions are true! Of course, the problem is that if they are both true there is no US policy. Or looked at another way, our policy is to agree with whomever were are conversing. So we assure Erdogan that Assad has to go, but we assure the Russians that we agree with them about negotiations that in their mind would allow Assad to remain in power.
I am afraid that it is becoming apparent that, with regard to Syria, we don't have a policy. Obama doesn't know what to do.
To be fair, I can understand that. Assad is a butcher, a client of Tehran, and the desire to get rid of him is thus logical and clearly in the interests of the US.
On the other hand, recent reports make it clear that the dominant force within the rebel alliance are jihadists, and themselves butchers who massacre prisoners, mutilate the dead, and eat their hearts and livers.
Moreover, Assad's forces seem to be rebounding, and their Russian allies are sending cash, ships, and now improved air defense missiles that, once in place, will make any no-fly zone much harder to implement. Is Obama going to send US air assets into action over Tartus if Russian naval vessels are in the roadstead?
So Obama is being pressured by his Turkish ally to act, while simultaneously he is being cautioned, and warned, by his Russian buddy to not act.
To be honest, if I were president I do not know what I'd do. If Obama takes a more active course, alongside the Turks, he runs big risks with the Russians and the prospect that even if his policy is successful, he'll be blamed for helping jihadists take power in Damascus. If he does nothing, and allows the killing to drag on for another year or more, he'll piss off the Turks and our Sunni Arab allies and look indecisive and weak.
Hezbollah Rationale for Syrian Intervention
http://www.almanar.com.lb/english/adetails.php?eid=92809&cid=23&fromval=1&frid=23&seccatid=20&s1=1
This is from Al-Manar, the media arm of Hezbollah. Nothing surprising, but it's as official as we're likely to get.
This is from Al-Manar, the media arm of Hezbollah. Nothing surprising, but it's as official as we're likely to get.
Hezbollah on Jordanian Border!
http://www.aawsat.net/2013/05/article55302083
According to this story, they are, and Jordan's Sunni Salafists don't like it.
More evidence of the spillover effect from Syria, as sectarian strike spreads from the Mediterranean to the Iranian border. Nearly 50 dead in Iraq earlier today form a mosque bombing.
According to this story, they are, and Jordan's Sunni Salafists don't like it.
More evidence of the spillover effect from Syria, as sectarian strike spreads from the Mediterranean to the Iranian border. Nearly 50 dead in Iraq earlier today form a mosque bombing.
Shia Bomb Sunni Mosque
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/71679/World/Region/Bombs-against-Iraqi-Sunnis-kill-.aspx
Death toll mounts, near 50.
But I'm sure this had nothing to do with Islam.
Death toll mounts, near 50.
But I'm sure this had nothing to do with Islam.
Dolphin #5 for the IDF
http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Israels-5th-Dolphin-submarine-unveiled-in-Germany-311454
These are long-range diesel boats. They all have tubes large enough, either through construction or modification, to carry cruise missiles with nuclear warheads. I suspect that the Israelis keep at least one, if not two, in the Arabian Sea at all times. Each boat can carry as many as sixteen missiles. So two Dolphins could do a lot of damage.
It is interesting that the Germans, despite the trend in Europe to back away from Israel, keep supplying the Israelis with the Dolphins.
These are long-range diesel boats. They all have tubes large enough, either through construction or modification, to carry cruise missiles with nuclear warheads. I suspect that the Israelis keep at least one, if not two, in the Arabian Sea at all times. Each boat can carry as many as sixteen missiles. So two Dolphins could do a lot of damage.
It is interesting that the Germans, despite the trend in Europe to back away from Israel, keep supplying the Israelis with the Dolphins.
Thursday, May 16, 2013
Putin Plays Hardball
http://www.timesofisrael.com/unmoved-by-israel-russia-will-deliver-top-air-defense-system-to-assad/
Putin is obviously putting the screws to Israel and the US. Continued aid. Push for talks and a cease-fire. Reinforcing the Mediterranean Fleet from the Pacific. Sending enhanced air-defense missiles to Assad.
The last named makes it harder for the Israelis to do what they are doing, but it also would make it harder for the US to set up no-fly zones at some point in the future.
Under normal circumstances, I'd expect our president to back down. But you have to wonder with all these sandals going on, if he might not be tempted to play it tougher than usual in an effort to redirect people's attention from domestic to foreign policy?
Putin is obviously putting the screws to Israel and the US. Continued aid. Push for talks and a cease-fire. Reinforcing the Mediterranean Fleet from the Pacific. Sending enhanced air-defense missiles to Assad.
The last named makes it harder for the Israelis to do what they are doing, but it also would make it harder for the US to set up no-fly zones at some point in the future.
Under normal circumstances, I'd expect our president to back down. But you have to wonder with all these sandals going on, if he might not be tempted to play it tougher than usual in an effort to redirect people's attention from domestic to foreign policy?
Obama's Syrian Betrayal?
http://www.aawsat.net/2013/05/article55301997
I don't know. I think Obama makes sense when he has second-thoughts after seeing the "good guys" eating their dead.
I don't know. I think Obama makes sense when he has second-thoughts after seeing the "good guys" eating their dead.
Cannibalism in Syria?
http://www.tehrantimes.com/middle-east/107743-cannibal-terrorist-says-video-from-syria-is-real
The Iranian press is doing all it can to play up the video of the Syrian rebel eating the heart of a dead soldier. "Cannibal Terrorist" has a nice ring to it.
The Iranian press is doing all it can to play up the video of the Syrian rebel eating the heart of a dead soldier. "Cannibal Terrorist" has a nice ring to it.
More Massacres in Syria
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/May-16/217304-russian-warships-enter-mediterranean.ashx#axzz2TJH6vPiP
The "Good Guys" keep getting bad press.
The "Good Guys" keep getting bad press.
Fifth Eskadra Back in Business!
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/May-16/217304-russian-warships-enter-mediterranean.ashx#axzz2TJH6vPiP
Russians are actually shifting warships from the Pacific to the Med.
Russians are actually shifting warships from the Pacific to the Med.
Wednesday, May 15, 2013
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
Morsi's Popularity Sinking
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/71446/Egypt/Politics-/Morsis-popularity-wanes--months-into-Egypt-preside.aspx
Bad poll news and, below, 2 million sign a petition to get rid of the guy.
http://www.arabnews.com/news/451580
Bad poll news and, below, 2 million sign a petition to get rid of the guy.
http://www.arabnews.com/news/451580
Egyptian Army Will Not Police Streets
http://www.ikhwanweb.com/article.php?id=30932
Different ways to read this.
"You're on your own!"
"Don't blame us if things suck!"
"We won't move until things get out of hand, and then...."
Different ways to read this.
"You're on your own!"
"Don't blame us if things suck!"
"We won't move until things get out of hand, and then...."
Iran's Water Shortage!!!
http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8903191410
And note that this report is from the Tehran Times!
http://tehrantimes.com/politics/107700-iran-will-soon-face-water-crisis-deputy-minister
"Addressing the second International Drought Initiative (IDI) meeting in Tehran, Daemi also said that Iran has received very low rainfall over the past 10 years and it is predicted that the annual volume of water available per capita would decline to one fourth in the next 20 years."
I wonder who could be behind this? I bet: Jewish sorcery!
And note that this report is from the Tehran Times!
http://tehrantimes.com/politics/107700-iran-will-soon-face-water-crisis-deputy-minister
"Addressing the second International Drought Initiative (IDI) meeting in Tehran, Daemi also said that Iran has received very low rainfall over the past 10 years and it is predicted that the annual volume of water available per capita would decline to one fourth in the next 20 years."
I wonder who could be behind this? I bet: Jewish sorcery!
Monday, May 13, 2013
Arab Anti-Semitism?
Here's a classic example. Jews are lairs, cowards, cheap, and they poisoned the Prophet. As for Hitler and the Holocaust, its an exaggeration. The main problem was that Hitler didn't kill them all! He was too damned restrained.
The Empire Strikes Back!
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/May-13/216892-syrian-troops-take-full-control-of-strategic-town.ashx#axzz2T24iAkZQ
If you start piecing together the news reports, it does appear that Assad's forces have regained the upper hand.
That is not to say that he has won the civil war, but it does appear that the seemingly inexorable tide of rebel advances has ebbed and begun to recede.
What dos this mean? Well, it does not mean that Assad has won, or is winning. It does mean that there will be increasing pressures placed on the Arabs, the West, and the United States to step up aid to the rebels. It probably also means that the rebels who will rise to a position of leadership will be the most brutal--the Jihadist factions.
If you look at what Assad's friends are saying--the Iranians and the Russians--about a negotiated settlement, then the Syrian military's battlefield gains ought to be viewed not as a war winning effort, but as an attempt to coerce the rebels into talks that will allow Assad's power to survive in some fashion. The rebels are now fighting Assad's army, Hezbollah militia from Lebanon, and some Shi'ite Iraqi militia.
This only serves to raise the stakes for the US, and the Obama administration. If--IF--Assad holds on, his survival will be seen as a victory for the Iranians, his steadfast ally, and a clear defeat for the United States, the West (minus Russia), and its Sunni Arab partners.
Redlines aside, Obama has been clear that Assad has to go, just as Qaddafi had to go. And if Assad does not "go," then Obama's policy has failed. if you read Kerry's diplomatic efforts to, arm-in-arm with Russia, achieve a negotiated settlement, you could argue that the US is already willing to concede defeat.
That's not to argue that Obama/Kerry are wrong to pursue such a policy. They probably have concluded that leaving Assad in power is not as poor an outcome as overthrowing him and replacing him with a jihadist emirate! In other words, Obama's is realizing that his initial--he has to go policy--wasn't well thought out. So now he's trying to back that policy down and embrace an outcome that will incorporate the "will of the Syrian people" as part of a negotiated settlement.
The problem is, I don't think the rebels want a negotiated settlement that leaves Assad in power in any fashion, however limited. The jihadists certainly do not want that, and since have demonstrated that they are not afraid to take on the USSR or the US, I doubt very much that they will back down in the face of the Assad regime.
If you start piecing together the news reports, it does appear that Assad's forces have regained the upper hand.
That is not to say that he has won the civil war, but it does appear that the seemingly inexorable tide of rebel advances has ebbed and begun to recede.
What dos this mean? Well, it does not mean that Assad has won, or is winning. It does mean that there will be increasing pressures placed on the Arabs, the West, and the United States to step up aid to the rebels. It probably also means that the rebels who will rise to a position of leadership will be the most brutal--the Jihadist factions.
If you look at what Assad's friends are saying--the Iranians and the Russians--about a negotiated settlement, then the Syrian military's battlefield gains ought to be viewed not as a war winning effort, but as an attempt to coerce the rebels into talks that will allow Assad's power to survive in some fashion. The rebels are now fighting Assad's army, Hezbollah militia from Lebanon, and some Shi'ite Iraqi militia.
This only serves to raise the stakes for the US, and the Obama administration. If--IF--Assad holds on, his survival will be seen as a victory for the Iranians, his steadfast ally, and a clear defeat for the United States, the West (minus Russia), and its Sunni Arab partners.
Redlines aside, Obama has been clear that Assad has to go, just as Qaddafi had to go. And if Assad does not "go," then Obama's policy has failed. if you read Kerry's diplomatic efforts to, arm-in-arm with Russia, achieve a negotiated settlement, you could argue that the US is already willing to concede defeat.
That's not to argue that Obama/Kerry are wrong to pursue such a policy. They probably have concluded that leaving Assad in power is not as poor an outcome as overthrowing him and replacing him with a jihadist emirate! In other words, Obama's is realizing that his initial--he has to go policy--wasn't well thought out. So now he's trying to back that policy down and embrace an outcome that will incorporate the "will of the Syrian people" as part of a negotiated settlement.
The problem is, I don't think the rebels want a negotiated settlement that leaves Assad in power in any fashion, however limited. The jihadists certainly do not want that, and since have demonstrated that they are not afraid to take on the USSR or the US, I doubt very much that they will back down in the face of the Assad regime.
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