Syria and Water!

http://www.timesofisrael.com/lack-of-water-sparked-syrias-conflict-and-it-will-make-egypt-more-militant-too/#.UY4xAJLVdGc.email

This is a very interesting line of argument regarding Syria. I argues in my book The Last Crusade that Iraq was the best place for us to try to jumpt start something approaching a modern secular state becuase Iraq was the only Arab state in the Middle East that has both water and oil. Some have water, Egypt; some have oil, Saudi; but only Iraq has both.

When I was in graduate school, the population of Saudi Arabia was about 5 million, or less. Today it is 25 times that and can be sustained ONLY through massive and expensive imports of food and costly de-salinization efforts.

What will happen when the world begins to better exploit its shale oil and natural gas and requires fewer imports from the Gulf? How will the Saudis feed their population? Keep in mind that recently the US has been pumping more crude than Saudi Arabia!

If you look around a bit on the web you will also find stories about a brewing problem between Ethiopia and Egypt. The Ethiopians are planning on damming up some of the headwaters of the Nile. There are different estimates of how much damage that would do downstream in Egypt.

Former Hizbollah Leader Claims Iran Forced Nasrallah to Intervene in Syria

He also warns, as I have been warning, of the prospects of a larger Sunni-Shi'ite conflict. 

More Evidence That Syrian Troubles Spilling into Lebanon

http://www.aawsat.net/2013/05/article55300794

Technical Info on IDF and Hezbollah Arsenals

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/1,7340,L-4376218,00.html

More Signs of a Syrian Counteroffensive

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/May-03/215875-syria-widens-campaign-to-uproot-rebels.ashx#axzz2S9eAeC7o

If these efforts fail, then the Assad regime is probably doomed. If they succeed, then the war will go on, and on, and on. 

Hearts and Minds in Gaza

http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Analysis-Egypt-Iran-in-power-struggle-over-Gaza-311944

A fight for control of Hamas in Gaza, between Tehran and Cairo. 

Veil Debate

Interesting Discussion about Syria on Al Jazeera

http://aje.me/12ra8Qz

Assad Regime Still Has Some Power

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/May-02/215787-syrian-troops-advance-in-homs.ashx#axzz2S9eAeC7o

The key to watch is will they succeed or fail. 

Nasrallah: Syria's Allies Will Not Allow Assad to Fall

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/Apr-30/215619-nasrallah-says-syrian-regime-cannot-be-toppled-militarily.ashx#axzz2Rzmy8EnJ

And how far are they willing to go to prop him up?