Wednesday, June 5, 2013

"Smart Diplomacy" in Action!

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“Smart Diplomacy” in Action!

As we consider the prospects of American policy with regard Syria, it is all too easy to see in the day-to-day events of the past two years inaction rooted in the incompetence of the Obama administration. But what if we were to look at that record not with an eye toward proving incompetence, but instead to discern the outlines of an intelligent policy? What would such a policy have to resemble?

The downsides of American intervention in Syria are many and obvious. We could very easily help to overthrow Assad only to find that we’ve placed an inveterate group of anti-American jihadists in power in Damascus.

Alternatively, if we continue to do nothing the butchery in Syria will continue with tens of thousands of additional civilians killed. The the growing sectarian divisions evident in Syria could very well accelerate and consume not just Syria, but also Iraq, Lebanon, and Jordan, destabilizing a huge swath of the region between the Mediterranean and the Iranian plateau.

That said, the current policy of inaction by the Obama administration, if we assume it is a conscious choice, would have to: 1) accept the deaths of thousands of additional Arabs in Syria, and 2) accept the dangers of the spread of sectarian strife from the Mediterranean to the Euphrates, and all that entails.

Such an assumption would suggest that the Obama administration, perhaps in response to the reality checks that came in the wake of the “Arab Spring,” has concluded that the Islamic world is doomed and the implosion that is coming is beyond the capabilities of the United States, and the West, to shape or contain. Hence our inaction, despite the course of events.

In other words, the only general strategy toward the region that is congruent with current Obama policy is one that has basically written off the Arab, and perhaps even more broadly, the Islamic world!

That’s right! The Obama that the American right so likes to castigate as an inveterate liberal actually has adopted a policy that is the most cold-hearted and bloody realpolitik approach of the modern era! Barack Obama has decided that we will sit back and watch as the world’s Arabs massacre each other in a spasm of violence that may ultimately engulf the entire region. But isn’t it better that they kill each other than us! In short, Obama’s new anti-terrorism policy is to let our enemies, and potential enemies in the Islamic world, massacre each other, while we re-focus our efforts on rebuilding our own economy and society.

Alternatively, the Obama administration is simply incompetent.

Qusair Falls to Assad and Hezbollah

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Jun-05/219487-syrian-army-restores-security-in-qusair-cracks-down-on-terrorists-sana.ashx#axzz2VCTqVZrL

Next stop Aleppo.

Too early to say that the rebels have lost, but they definitely are losing. 

Here is the official Iran announcement of the victory over the "Takfiris." 

http://217.25.54.55/en/News/80685314/Politic/Abdollahian_congratulates_on_al-Qasir_liberation

Tuesday, June 4, 2013

Hussein Ibish on the "Real" Islamophobes

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentaryanalysis/the-worst-islamophobes

"For all the harm purveyors of the standard Islamophobic narrative undoubtedly cause, the worst Islamophobes – indeed in many ways the real Islamophobes – are the violent Muslim extremists who seem bent on providing Islamophobic narratives with some basis in fact"

4000 Hezbollah Fighters near Aleppo

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/Jun-04/219388-4000-hezbollah-fighters-reach-rebel-held-aleppo-fsa.ashx#axzz2VCTqVZrL

Previous estimates were that Hezbollah had 3,000-4,000 fighters in Syria. Now the estimates run between 10,000 and 12,000. 

The Syrians have just cleared a key area near Damascus. If they can secure Qusair and re-take Aleppo, that may well break the resistance.

We've seen this same back and forth before, in Libya. Qaddafi looked like he was finished, but then he recovered and started regaining ground. As he did so, the massacres became more frequent and, finally, the West intervened.

Is Assad's forces can secure Qusair, and begin a new offensive against Aleppo, Syria's largest city, there will in all probability be innumerable massacres and floods of refugees as the people who supported the various rebel factions flee for their lives. Of course, most of the refugees and victims of these new massacres will be Sunnis, and the perpetrators will be Shi'a. The hue and cry from the Sunni Arabs will be profound, and hard to ignore for Obama.

Egyptian Cabinet Debates Attacks on Ethiopia ON LIVE TV!

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2013/06/04/Egyptian-politicians-suggest-sabotaging-Ethiopia-s-new-Nile-dam.html

Classic FUBAR! Morsi holds cabinet meeting on Ethiopian dam; forgets to tell cabinet it's on live TV. Some of the ministers propose terrorism against Ethiopians. ----According to The Associated Press, in the meeting, Younis Makhyoun, leader of an ultraconservative Islamist party, said Egypt should back rebels in Ethiopia or, as a last resort, destroy the dam. He said Egypt made a “strategic error” when it did not object to the dam’s construction.

Makhyoun said Ethiopia is “fragile” because of rebel movements inside the country. “We can communicate with them and use them as a bargaining chip against the Ethiopian government,” he said.

“If all this fails, then there is no choice left for Egypt but to play the final card, which is using the intelligence service to destroy the dam,” said Makhyoun, whose Nour party won about 25 percent of parliament’s seats in elections in late 2011 and early 2012.----

Putin: No Missiles in Syria Yet

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Putin-says-Russia-has-not-sent-Syria-S300-missiles-315398

So Assad was lying when he said they were there, right? Assad, lie? Imagine that. 

And Hezbollah lied, too. 

 http://www.almanar.com.lb/english/adetails.php?eid=94299&cid=23&fromval=1&frid=23&seccatid=20&s1=1