Better Informed Comment: The Real War

I have titled my Blog “The Real War” because there are too many people in the West who refuse to see that we are involved in what is a very real and seminal struggle against Jihadists. They are not freedom fighters, nor terrorists, although they use terror as a tactic. They must be understood for what they are: Islamic warriors bent on restoring a global khalifate through armed struggle. And that is what makes this a “real war” and not a global criminal action.

Monday, June 24, 2013

Fix it or Else! Egyptian Army Threatens Intervention

http://www.aawsat.net/2013/06/article55306975

Talk about a proverbial "sword of Damocles" for Egyptian politicians.

If the army does march, what in the world will Obama do? Condemn them for being undemocratic, I suspect. He'd much rather see the Muslim Brotherhood control Egypt, and, of course, continue to govern it into the ground.

Scores Dead as Army Gets Involved in Lebanese Sectarian Fighting

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Local-News/2013/Jun-24/221395-fierce-clashes-rock-south-lebanon-city-for-second-day.ashx#axzz2X9jGPh5t

Things are getting worse in Lebanon.

Are the Majority of Muslims Really Turned Off by Terror?

Remember when the world's Muslims were upset about that Muhammad movie back in the fall, when mobs stormed the US embassy in Egypt and the Obama administration tried to use that as an excuse for what went down in Benghazi? Below is a link to an article about a protest by Muslims in Toronto outside the US embassy. The protestors number more than a thousand!

http://digitaljournal.com/article/333361

The other day a group of Toronto's "Progressive" Muslims decided to stage a demonstration against the hijacking of their religion by terrorists. See the report below.

http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2013/06/17/progressive_muslims_group_launched_in_toronto_to_reclaim_hijacked_faith.html

The report doesn't mention a number, but does note that only about half of those who attended were actually Muslims. But if you look at the carefully and narrowly focused photos with the story, you don't see many people. The same is true of a You Tube video. The estimate is that the rally drew about two-dozen people.

Here is the video. It's fairly sad. These people definitely have a good heart and love their country--Canada. But the fact that there are so few of them tells you a lot.

And that is the problem.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8CUbnAiPZmc

Assad Takes Priority over Israel

http://www.jpost.com/Diplomacy-and-Politics/Hamas-official-Stopping-Assad-priority-over-jihad-in-Palestine-317570

According to this Hamas leader. That's a big step, and it's an indication that the Iran-Assad-Hezbollah strategy of trying to refocus Arab efforts on "The Jews" isn't working.

Syrian Druze Want to Relocate to Israel!

http://www.timesofisrael.com/druze-leaders-ask-israel-to-take-in-syrian-coreligionists/?utm_source=The+Times+of+Israel+Daily+Edition&utm_campaign=6df6b8d39c-2013_06_23&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_adb46cec92-6df6b8d39c-54443077

The Druze are an off-shoot of Shi'a Islam. They have a long history and have often been repressed by especially Sunni Muslims as apostates. Israel already has a substantial Druze community. They are considered loyal, hold Israeli citizenship, and are subject to the compulsory service. I recall that a Druze at one point was the Israeli consul in Atlanta.

No doubt they are alarmed by the increasingly sectarian nature of the Syrian civil war.

Saturday, June 22, 2013

Interesting Debate about Islam

http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/headtohead/2013/06/201361091619207870.html

Interesting debate! Is the problem with Islam a need for reform, or Islamophobia? I side with Manji. The problem with Hasan's argument is that if you applied the same logic to US history before the Civil War, you would have judge the United States by what the Declaration of Independence said about freedom instead of the realities of slavery. Hasan makes just that argument about Islam: judge it by what the book says and not by what we see happening all over the world. I've seen this woman on Book Notes and she is impressive, and very brave! She is worth watching.

Friday, June 21, 2013

Syria Now and Afghanistan Then

As we shape out policy in Syria, we ought to keep in mind our experiences in Afghanistan back in the late 1970s and 1980s. The Carter and Reagan administrations supported the Afghan resistance, which consisted of a hodgepodge of various mujaheddin groups, most Afghan nationals and other Arab volunteers. The US and its Arab allies helped these groups to win--that is to force the Soviets to withdraw. Unfortunately, that victory largely evaporated when the Taliban came to dominate the country and Al-Qaeda found a base for further operations.

When Al Qaeda won, it's leadership then had to decide what to do next. There were some who favored going after the "Near Enemy," that is the non-Islamist Arab states such as Saudi Arabia or Egypt. Others favored going after the "Far Enemy." For some that meant going to Chechnya and fighting the Russians in the Caucasus. For others that meant taking on the US, which was what the leadership ultimately decided to do. Hence 9/11/2001.

If Syria, like the Afghan Communist regime, supported by Russia, goes under and, in that sense, history repeats itself, what then can we expect from the victorious coalition?

First, the odds are the more radical and vicious groups will dominate, just as the Taliban did in Afghanistan.

Second, the victors will then debate "what do we do now?" Their options will be numerous.

Hunker down in Syria and rebuild the state?

Go after a "Near Enemy"?

Go after Hezbollah in Lebanon;
Go after the Shi'a in Iraq;
Carry the struggle into Jordan to get rid of the King;
Go after Israel in an effort to spark a regional war that might unite Arabs in a single cause.

Or go after a "Far Enemy"?

Move the effort to the Caucasus against the Russians;
Go after a European country;
Go after the US.

Every one of the options, except the first--hunker down--would create problems for the US. And how likely is it that that first option would be the one chosen? I'd say about ZERO!

The reality of Syrian policy is that even if we are "successful," and drive Assad from power, we are headed for trouble. Of course, a failure to drive Assad from power would also create enormous problems, strengthening, as it would, Hezbollah and Iran.

EU Fighters in Syria

http://rt.com/news/russians-europeans-putin-syria-063/

First, it was 200. Then it was 400. Now it is 600, including Russians. No doubt, the Russians are more concerned about what happens with these guys if they are successful in Syria.

Violence Spreads to Lebanon?

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/06/syrian-war-threatens-lebanon-with-crisis.html

According to this Arab press article, that's what's happening.

Killings have been ongoing for a while now between Lebanese Shiite clans and the Sunni inhabitants of the town of Arsal. These events forebode an increase in sectarian violence between Sunnis and Shiites in broader Lebanon. Moreover, it has become obvious that the higher frequency of these events has coincided on the one hand with Hezbollah’s deepening involvement in the Syrian war and on the other with the consolidation of the relationship between Lebanese Salafist forces and their Syrian counterparts.

Are Those Manpads Arriving?

http://www.timesofisrael.com/syrian-rebel-commander-says-they-have-new-weapons/

The rebels claim they've received new, game-changing weapons.

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Times of India: "Humbled US"

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/Humbled-US-makes-concessions-to-Taliban-to-start-talks/articleshow/20653104.cms

"Humbled US" headline from Times of India. They point out that Obama caved when the Taliban refused to meet the pre-conditions our illustrious president had set for the talks to begin. Any wonder that Karzai has already balked?

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AS_AFGHANISTAN?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2013-06-19-06-35-52

Our foreign policy is a joke. The only people who don't realize it are Americans who continue to believe in their Messiah. The 1 billion Indians know it's a joke. The 1 billion Chinese know it's a joke. The Russians know it's a joke. The Iranians know it's a joke. Assad knows it's a joke. Nasrallah knows it's a joke. Wake up! Obama's trying to cut a deal with the Taliban so they'll give him a "decent interval" to withdraw from Afghanistan without them collapsing the place as we pull out. Obama will claim "victory" and when it all goes to shit blame the Afghans. Karzai is a bozo, and Karzai is corrupt, and Karzai is incompetent, but Karzai didn't get where he is without being an astute "survivor" and he can smell a "Munich" coming.

Monday, June 17, 2013

Turkish Army May Intervene

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/army-may-step-in-to-stop-protests-if-need-be-deputy-pm-arinc.aspx?pageID=238&nID=48946&NewsCatID=338

Dangerous sign for both sides. I'm not sure Erdogan can fully trust the military.

Saudis Will Supply Syrian Rebels with "Manpads"

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/syrien-konflikt-saudi-arabien-will-waffen-an-rebellen-liefern-a-905987.html

These will be French Mistrals, Man-portable air defense system. Of course, once these guys get their hands on such equipment, they can use them against western air liners.

Russia: No No Fly Zone in Syria!

http://rt.com/news/line/2013-06-17/#48810

The story:

Russia will not allow the establishment of a no-fly zone over Syria, believes Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Aleksandr Lukashevich. “We saw in Libya the way that such a zone is introduced and how these solutions are implemented. We don’t want this to repeat in the Syrian conflict. I think that we won’t fundamentally allow the same scenario,” he said. Lukashevich added that the contract with Syria to supply S-300 “was signed quite a long time ago” and has not yet been implemented. “We take a responsible approach to the implementation of our commitments and there is nothing illegal in terms of international law,” he reiterated. Earlier several countries spoke out in favor of establishing a no-fly zone over Syria, which would deprive the Syrian government's army of the capability to strike the rebel forces from air.

Even Hamas Has Turned on Hezbollah

http://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-to-hezbollah-get-out-of-syria/

This gives you a good idea of just how deep the sectarian divide has become in the region.

Sunday, June 16, 2013

Blame the Jews!

I've made several posts on Facebook today highlighting blatant antisemitism in Iran, Egypt, Syria, and Turkey. We are talking about outright antisemitism from Sunnis and Shi'a alike. Why are we seeing this up-tick in antisemitism? Because in the region, when the going gets tough, YOU BLAME THE JEWS! And the going is getting tougher. Since the place is falling apart, and sectarian infighting is exploding, no one over there knows any way to counteract the increasingly evident divisions other than to attempt to unite everyone against the Jews. Basically, Jew hatred is one of the very few things in the Middle East that people can all agree on, and rally around. So if you're an Egyptian and you want more reforms, you're a tool of the Jews. If you want to overthrow Assad? You're a tool of the Jews. If you protest against Erdogan? You're a tool of the Jews. And if you don't like Iran, it's nuke program, its support for Assad, or anything else, you're a tool of the Jews. (And, of course, an Islamophobe.) Everyone's a tool of the Jews, including Barack Obama.

[Sorry, got to run. Getting a call from Bibi.]

The PEZ Lives!

Hezbollah Trains Syrians!

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2013/06/16/Hezbollah-trains-Assad-forces-for-Aleppo-offensive-.html

The Hezbollah forces, trained in urban warfare in Iran, are now training some Syrian units in urban warfare.

It was often clear in videos taken by Syrian rebels, that Assad's mechanized forces were not well suited to operating in built-up environments. The Syrian army was basically trained to fight the Israelis in open armored warfare. But now they are being re-trained and, apparently, they are performing much better, hence their recent victories.

The Syrians are also concentrating their forces in the northwest, especially near Aleppo. This is important to keep in mind because the US is supporting Syrian rebel forces operating near the Jordanian border, i.e., in the southeast. In other words, helping the rebels in the southeast, even if it is done well and in a timely fashion, is not going to help the rebels near Aleppo--unless "our" rebels can threaten either Damascus or the Syrian lines of supply running from the capital to Iraq.

Iranian supplies, and possibly troops, are moving along those roads running from Baghdad to Damascus, and are within striking distance of the Jordanian border.

Erdogan Blames Jews!

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/the-chapull-jew-capulcu-interest-rate-lobby.aspx?pageID=449&nID=48497&NewsCatID=430

PM Erdogan talks about the "interest rate lobby," which is the code in Turkey for "the Jews!"

Iranian Troops to Syria!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-to-send-4000-troops-to-aid-president-assad-forces-in-syria-8660358.html

Bad news all around. (1) Obama promises to send some small arms; the Iranians promise to send troops. (2) It's entirely possible the troops are already there, hence the announcement. (3) For Iranian troops to get to Syria, they have/had to transit Iraq, by land or air. So the announcement means that the Iraqis are helping the Iranians. If we had been able to work out a deal to keep some American forces in Iraq, this would not be happening. (4) The Iranians are talking about opening a front on the Golan against "the Zionist Entity." If they do that, then the Sunnis fighting Assad will have to either effectively ally with Israel, or refocus their efforts against Israel in the name of Islamic solidarity. But have no fear! Obama meets tomorrow with Putin in N. Ireland. Yea, I'm not worried. Former KGB guy versus Community Organizer. No sweat.

Friday, June 14, 2013

Muslim Brotherhood Moves into Sunni Alignment!

This first article calls for solidarity with the Syrian people, in actuality Syrian Sunnis.

http://www.ikhwanweb.com/article.php?id=31008

There were two other articles up earlier, that are now unfortunately inacessible, although if you go to the page you can still see the links. http://www.ikhwanweb.com/

The first calls for the end of Shia attacks in Iraq; the second condemns Hezbollah in Lebanon.

So there we have it! In one day the Ihkwan has joined he sectarian struggle on-going from Lebanon to the Iranian border.

Obama's Syrian Policy Options

Obama has three options in Syria. 1) Support Assad. 2) Overthrow Assad. 3) Lean one way then the other and keep the war going as long as possible. Obama cannot adopt (1) given his statements about Assad having to go. Even if he wanted to, it would be foolish to help Hezbollah and the Iranians win. Obama could adopt (2), but that would require more than just weapons; at least an air campaign. Moreover, (2) might well give power in Damascus to Jihadists. Obama’s strategy thus far fits (3), which could be described as the best strategy to serve purely American interests. As long as the fighting continues, the Sunni jihadists will head to Syria, where many will be “martyred.” And while that is happening, which is a good thing for the US, financially strapped Iran will be bankrolling Syria, which is also good for the US. But there are several downsides to (3). If that is, or becomes, our policy, someone will eventually leak the memo and the Obama administration will look exceedingly heartless, since (3) means the death of another 100,000 Syrians. Moreover, if the sectarian nature of the war keeps escalating, the entire region could collapse into a spasm of violence from Lebanon to Iran.

In short, Obama has NO—ZERO—wise options in Syria. Right now he is straddling the line between (2) and (3), but neither are winners. If he ends up leaning toward (2), he better discuss that with the American people, have a debate, and involve Congress. If he goes with (3), he cannot discuss that publicly. There is no way we can have a public debate about a policy consciously adopted that essentially condemns hundreds of thousands of Arabs to death to serve American interests.

Tuesday, June 11, 2013

Collapse of the Turkish Model

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/06/turkey-muslim-democracy-farewell.html

If we try to summarize this defeat in a few words, what we are experiencing now is the collapse of the "Muslim democracy paradigm." The ambition of AKP [Justice and Development Party] Turkey to be a model for the Middle East has been invalidated by the social explosion. The collapse should be partly attributed to this phenomenon.

France and Saudis: No Repeat of Qusair in Aleppo

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2013/06/11/Saudi-Arabia-France-agree-Qusayr-scenario-can-t-be-repeated-in-Aleppo.html

The pressure is mounting.

Sunday, June 9, 2013

"Storm of North": Syrians Drive on Aleppo

http://www.almanar.com.lb/english/main.php

Hezbollah reports Syrian forces have begun their offensive to retake Aleppo. Obama, I'm sure, is hoping this fails. If it succeeds....

The Egyptian Economy: Is it Doomed?

http://www.meforum.org/3527/egypt-economic-ruin

David Goldman says yes.

For those of you unfamiliar with Goldman, he also writes under the name "Spengler" and before the Arab Spring predicted that the Egyptian economy was going to cause problems for Mubarak. In other words, the Arab Spring was sparked by the economic problems that are now haunting Morsi, who has even less leverage to handle them.

Friday, June 7, 2013

More than 600 EU Citizens Fighting in Syria

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2013/06/07/France-More-than-600-EU-citizens-fighting-in-Syria.html

Al Qaeda Rebrands! New Name? TERMINUS!

http://www.panarabiaenquirer.com/wordpress/al-qaeda-reveals-new-corporate-rebranding/

“The Al-Qaeda brand, while known and feared by millions, has lost its way in recent years,” said marketing manager Edward Al-Zahib in a live video link-up broadcast online. “While our affiliates and franchises across the Islamic Maghreb and Arabian Peninsula, along with splinter groups around the world, helped take our message to a wider audience, people were losing sight of what we really stand for. That’s why, as of today, Al-Qaeda becomes Terminus.”

Syria: Quo Vadis?

The unfolding events in Syria form a moment in history that will change the way we think about the relationship between the West and the Islamic world. The deteriorating situation, with the death of tens of thousands of people and the displacement of millions of refugees, is an atrocity several magnitudes beyond this past May’s events in Boston. And if you look around the globe at what is happening elsewhere--in Syria, Yemen, Pakistan, Somalia, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Turkey, and Iraq--the evident discontent, unrest, economic troubles, and killings dwarf anything occurring between the Islamic world and the West.

Professor John Esposito of Georgetown University recently published an opinion piece in the Washington Post criticizing former Tony Blair.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/on-faith/wp/2013/06/05/is-islamic-terrorism-a-problem-with-religion-or-politics/

The former British Prime Minister wrote:

There is a problem within Islam--from the adherents of an ideology that is a strain within Islam. And we have to put it on the table and be honest about it…. It has at its heart a view about religion and about the interaction between religion and politics that is not compatible with pluralistic, liberal, open-minded societies.

Esposito countered with a well worn argument:

Though well intentioned, it perpetuates his long held belief since the Bush-Blair invasion and occupation of Iraq that the primary driver, the root cause of terrorism, is religion and not political and social contexts and foreign policies. It is wrong headed and doomed to continue to be part of the problem not the solution.

Unfortunately, Esposito misses the larger point. Forget Boston, Professor Esposito! Forget London! How do you explain the inter-Arab butchery in Syria with arguments about Western “political and social contexts and foreign policies”?

Do we need to properly digest the meanings and the evils of the Tsarnaev brothers or label the actions of Major Hassan as terrorism instead of workplace violence to understand what is going in the Muslim world? Does it really make much of a difference what motivated the Nigerian converts to Islam who recently butchered a British soldier when we see the bloodbath that is Syria? What of the 200,000 Algerians who have died in their country’s internal fighting over the past twenty years?

This clearly evident reality should make one thing perfectly clear (although for many, such as John Esposito, it will not): while we are free to attribute sporadic Muslim terrorism against and within the West to Western policies of imperialism or colonialism, you can’t attribute the sectarian strife so evident in Syria between Sunnis and Shi’a as being somehow caused by the West. (Yes, I know that you can blame the borders of Syria on the British and French, but no set of borders could have avoided the intermixing of populations given the mosaic that was the Middle East.)

What we are seeing in Syria, and increasingly elsewhere in the Middle East, is something that we are loathe to discuss openly: the inability of Islamic political, economic and social (not religious) culture to cope with the demands of the twenty-first century.

To say that openly is to risk being labeled an Islamophobe.

To avoid saying it is to ignore the obvious.

Ought we to be surprised that a social system developed by a seventh-century man in the Arabian Peninsula, however wise, is inadequate to meet the demands of the modern world? Marxism was a nineteenth-century social system that failed to cope with the demands of the late twentieth century. What should surprise us is that Muhammad’s seventh-century recipe for life survived as long as it did, not that it now is increasingly and obviously a catastrophe.

No alterations of Western policies are going to fix Syria. Withdrawing American naval forces from the Persian Gulf will not bring peace to Syria. Totally eliminating the state of Israel will not bring peace to Syria! (Hezbollah and Hamas would probably start fighting for control.) In fact, the course of action most likely to bring some semblance of peace to Syria would be MORE, not less Western intervention!

Syria, and its capital Damascus, lies at the very heart of the Arab world. That world is decomposing before our eyes. Sunnis and Shi’a are killing each other in bloody massacres, with Sunni jihadists videoing themselves as they gnaw at the organs of their opponents. Shi’a label their opponents “Takfiris”—apostates who can be killed on sight. The sectarian fighting is spreading into Iraq and Lebanon. How in the world can anyone watch what is happening and not understand that these people are killing each other BECAUSE of religion? And that religion is Islam! If Christians, Jews, or Atheists are killed, it’s because they are by-standers, not players in the Syrian drama. (And, yes, Europeans killed each other by the millions from the Protestant Reformation until the end of the Thirty Years War—for religion!)

I made this argument to a friend a few weeks back, as the basic outlines of this argument formed in my mind. His counter was that, while all this was true, it wasn’t that long ago that we witnessed similar barbarism in the non-Islamic world. In the 1930s the Japanese committed atrocities against, not only Westerners, but also fellow Asians--Koreans, Filipinos, Chinese, and others. In Europe the Nazis behaved barbarically against Jews, Poles, Gypsies, the Russians, and assorted other peoples. True, all very true. And, I added, how did the Japanese and Germans fare given their behavior? What did Tokyo and Berlin look like in 1945? In other words, drawing such parallels ought not to be an exercise meant to somehow excuse a behavior, but rather to serve as a warning of the dire consequences that may well be on their way to the inhabitants of the Islamic world.

Syria should make it clear to everyone that the Islam is seriously ill. It is dying before our eyes. The still living corpse is already beginning to rot, but we avert our eyes, smile, spray some cologne about, and pretend we smell not a thing.

And this is the grim reality that Tony Blair, who used to claim that the bin Laden’s of the world had “hijacked” Islam, is only now beginning to comprehend, and that President Obama faces as a stark policy choice in Syria. Some pundits advocate intervention; others non-intervention. All admit that there is no obvious or easy choice of action, or inaction. But the Syrian experience—the putrification of Islam—is the reality Obama faces, even if he has yet himself to recognize it for what it is. There is no obvious course to follow in Syria because there is, by definition, no treatment for terminal illness. There is only burial.

Thursday, June 6, 2013

Qaradawi's Blunder?

http://www.majalla.com/eng/2013/06/article55242058

This is a very interesting peice that concludes that the Sunni calls from a jihad against Assad are tactical errors that made actually help to lead to a larger problem in the Arab world.

Saudi Grand Mufti on Hezbollah

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2013/06/06/Saudi-Grand-Mufti-praises-Qaradawi-s-stance-on-Hezbollah.html

If you take Qaradawi's call from a few days ago, and this one, what we have now is a fairly clear call for a holy war against the Shi'a in Syria. And add to that a new call for jihad from Qaeda al-Jihad.

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Al-Qaida-leader-calls-for-Jihad-against-Israel-315636

You might say we have a perfect jihadist storm on the horizon. But, oddly enough, it's not headed our way! It's heading for Nasrallah and Assad.

But the question remains: what in the hell is the US supposed to do? Do we side with the jhadists? Do we really want to be in league with al Qaeda in Syria? But if not, then do we side with Assad, and Iran? Or do we sit back and watch as another hundred thousand people get massacred?

I think this is that 3:00 AM call that Hillary talked about way back in 2008.

Syria 2013/Spain 1937?

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/2013/06/06/From-Guernica-to-Qusayr.html

That's the comparison made in this editorial, with Qusair being the new Guernica.

But if the parallel is valid, then Assad is going to win.

Egyptians Reserve Right to Use Military Force against Ethiopia

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/73285/Egypt/Politics-/Military-response-to-Ethiopia-dam-requires-Egyptia.aspx

Interview with Hezbollah Quasair Veteran

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/interviews/hezbollah-fighter-details-ops-in-qusayr

Here's the quote that caught my eye.

Does the war waged by Hezbollah against the Syrian rebels bear any similarity with the war with Israel?

It’s actually very different from Lebanon, with the exception of the battles of Bint Jbeil (in the south), where the terrain and towns with houses built very close together are in many ways similar to Qusayr. Elite and special forces that are now deployed in Qusayr are using the training in street fighting they received in Iran, which was done in mock cities specifically built for this purpose.

"Hezbollah: Victory of Qusayr Severe Blow to US-Israeli-Takfiri Scheme"

Hezbollah: Victory of Qusayr Severe Blow to US-Israeli-Takfiri Scheme

Yea, they got that right. But have no fear! The Obama administration has condemned the victory!

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/White-House-condemns-Syrian-govt-assault-on-Qusair-315605

Wednesday, June 5, 2013

"Smart Diplomacy" in Action!

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“Smart Diplomacy” in Action!

As we consider the prospects of American policy with regard Syria, it is all too easy to see in the day-to-day events of the past two years inaction rooted in the incompetence of the Obama administration. But what if we were to look at that record not with an eye toward proving incompetence, but instead to discern the outlines of an intelligent policy? What would such a policy have to resemble?

The downsides of American intervention in Syria are many and obvious. We could very easily help to overthrow Assad only to find that we’ve placed an inveterate group of anti-American jihadists in power in Damascus.

Alternatively, if we continue to do nothing the butchery in Syria will continue with tens of thousands of additional civilians killed. The the growing sectarian divisions evident in Syria could very well accelerate and consume not just Syria, but also Iraq, Lebanon, and Jordan, destabilizing a huge swath of the region between the Mediterranean and the Iranian plateau.

That said, the current policy of inaction by the Obama administration, if we assume it is a conscious choice, would have to: 1) accept the deaths of thousands of additional Arabs in Syria, and 2) accept the dangers of the spread of sectarian strife from the Mediterranean to the Euphrates, and all that entails.

Such an assumption would suggest that the Obama administration, perhaps in response to the reality checks that came in the wake of the “Arab Spring,” has concluded that the Islamic world is doomed and the implosion that is coming is beyond the capabilities of the United States, and the West, to shape or contain. Hence our inaction, despite the course of events.

In other words, the only general strategy toward the region that is congruent with current Obama policy is one that has basically written off the Arab, and perhaps even more broadly, the Islamic world!

That’s right! The Obama that the American right so likes to castigate as an inveterate liberal actually has adopted a policy that is the most cold-hearted and bloody realpolitik approach of the modern era! Barack Obama has decided that we will sit back and watch as the world’s Arabs massacre each other in a spasm of violence that may ultimately engulf the entire region. But isn’t it better that they kill each other than us! In short, Obama’s new anti-terrorism policy is to let our enemies, and potential enemies in the Islamic world, massacre each other, while we re-focus our efforts on rebuilding our own economy and society.

Alternatively, the Obama administration is simply incompetent.

Qusair Falls to Assad and Hezbollah

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Jun-05/219487-syrian-army-restores-security-in-qusair-cracks-down-on-terrorists-sana.ashx#axzz2VCTqVZrL

Next stop Aleppo.

Too early to say that the rebels have lost, but they definitely are losing.

Here is the official Iran announcement of the victory over the "Takfiris."

http://217.25.54.55/en/News/80685314/Politic/Abdollahian_congratulates_on_al-Qasir_liberation

Tuesday, June 4, 2013

Hussein Ibish on the "Real" Islamophobes

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentaryanalysis/the-worst-islamophobes

"For all the harm purveyors of the standard Islamophobic narrative undoubtedly cause, the worst Islamophobes – indeed in many ways the real Islamophobes – are the violent Muslim extremists who seem bent on providing Islamophobic narratives with some basis in fact"

4000 Hezbollah Fighters near Aleppo

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/Jun-04/219388-4000-hezbollah-fighters-reach-rebel-held-aleppo-fsa.ashx#axzz2VCTqVZrL

Previous estimates were that Hezbollah had 3,000-4,000 fighters in Syria. Now the estimates run between 10,000 and 12,000.

The Syrians have just cleared a key area near Damascus. If they can secure Qusair and re-take Aleppo, that may well break the resistance.

We've seen this same back and forth before, in Libya. Qaddafi looked like he was finished, but then he recovered and started regaining ground. As he did so, the massacres became more frequent and, finally, the West intervened.

Is Assad's forces can secure Qusair, and begin a new offensive against Aleppo, Syria's largest city, there will in all probability be innumerable massacres and floods of refugees as the people who supported the various rebel factions flee for their lives. Of course, most of the refugees and victims of these new massacres will be Sunnis, and the perpetrators will be Shi'a. The hue and cry from the Sunni Arabs will be profound, and hard to ignore for Obama.

Egyptian Cabinet Debates Attacks on Ethiopia ON LIVE TV!

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2013/06/04/Egyptian-politicians-suggest-sabotaging-Ethiopia-s-new-Nile-dam.html

Classic FUBAR! Morsi holds cabinet meeting on Ethiopian dam; forgets to tell cabinet it's on live TV. Some of the ministers propose terrorism against Ethiopians. ----According to The Associated Press, in the meeting, Younis Makhyoun, leader of an ultraconservative Islamist party, said Egypt should back rebels in Ethiopia or, as a last resort, destroy the dam. He said Egypt made a “strategic error” when it did not object to the dam’s construction.

Makhyoun said Ethiopia is “fragile” because of rebel movements inside the country. “We can communicate with them and use them as a bargaining chip against the Ethiopian government,” he said.

“If all this fails, then there is no choice left for Egypt but to play the final card, which is using the intelligence service to destroy the dam,” said Makhyoun, whose Nour party won about 25 percent of parliament’s seats in elections in late 2011 and early 2012.----

Putin: No Missiles in Syria Yet

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Putin-says-Russia-has-not-sent-Syria-S300-missiles-315398

So Assad was lying when he said they were there, right? Assad, lie? Imagine that.

And Hezbollah lied, too.

http://www.almanar.com.lb/english/adetails.php?eid=94299&cid=23&fromval=1&frid=23&seccatid=20&s1=1

Saturday, June 1, 2013

Russians Eagerly Cover Turkish Protests

http://rt.com/news/turkey-protests-second-day-114/

The New Kadesh!

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/05/foreign-fighters-key-to-decisive-battle-of-qusayr.html

Interesting! the fighting Qusair, the scene of heavy fighting in western Syria, was known in biblical time as KADESH! It's where the Pharaoh Ramses fought the Hittites.

Turkish Unrest Spreads

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2013/06/02/Turkey-headline-.html

The government withdrew from the park, but far from calming the situation, it seems to have sparked wider protests.

More Troubling Signs

http://www.timesofisrael.com/saudis-gulf-states-unnerved-by-us-pivot-away-from-middle-east/

Nixon tried this in the early '70s. He came up with the "Twin Pillars" policy. It failed and sparked an arms race between Iraq and Iran, the Iranian revolution, the Iran-Iraq War, the Tanker War of 87-88, and the First Gulf War of 1990-1991.

Saudis to Extend Power Grid to Egypt

http://www.arabnews.com/node/277672

Several points.

This will clearly help Egypt economically and developmentally;
This will also make Egypt increasingly dependent on the Saudis;
The huge costs of this program will be funded by higher oil prices, paid for by those who import Saudi oil;
I'd interpret this as a clear statement about Saudi fears for Egypt and a Saudi desire to look to Egypt as its muscle, given the fecklessness, in Saudi eyes, of American policy.