http://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/Activists-Hundreds-of-Syrian-rebels-enter-besieged-Qusair-315018
Friday, May 31, 2013
Thursday, May 30, 2013
Assad Changes Focus toward Israel
http://www.almanar.com.lb/english/adetails.php?eid=95690&cid=23&fromval=1&frid=23&seccatid=20&s1=1
Here is part of the transcript of Assad's interview.I believe it was with Press TV, which is an Iranian outfit, but this account comes from Al Manar, which is Hezbollah's media arm.
What I find interesting is Assad's attempt to connect the Syrian rebels with Israel, and the forces of "resistance" to Israel with support for Assad.
I reassure that the battle, the developments in Al-Qusayr, and all the wail we hear are related to "Israel". They want to strangle the resistance. This old-new battle takes in each time a different shape. Now, the important thing is not Al-Qusayr as a city, but the borders. They want to strangle the resistance by land and sea, and here lies a question. It is said that the resistance should direct its arms at the enemy, hence at the South. This was said in May, 7 when some agents for Israel in Lebanon tried to meddle in the resistance's communication network. They said that the resistance shifted its weapons to the inside. They said the same thing about the Syrian Army. They said that the Syrian Army should fight on the borders with Israel. We clearly said that the army is fighting the enemy wherever he is present. When the enemy is in the North, or comes to the North, we move towards the North or the East or the West. The same applies to the resistance. Why is Hezbollah present on the borders in Lebanon or in Syria? Because the battle is against the Israeli enemy and its agents in Syria or in Lebanon.
In other words, Assad's strategy is simple and hardly novel: BLAME THE JEWS!
And it may work! If the IDF strikes weapons being turned over to Hezbollah, it will reinforce Assad's point. It reminds me of 1991 when the US launched Desert Storm's air campaign and Saddam Hussein promptly fired Scuds into Israel, hoping for their response.
The way the Bush administration avoided that trap was to take up the Scud hunting campaign to preempt Israeli action. But will Obama do the same this time, or will he stand by as the IDF strikes?
As I've said before, there is no clear and easy answer for Obama in this crisis. But he needs to do something, and not try to "lead from behind." The Syrian crisis is much larger than Syria. It now is linked to the Iranian nuclear issue, stability in Iraq and Lebanon, US-Russia relations, and the possibilities of some larger regional war. The Iranians and Russians are doing everything they can to place Obama in a difficult position. I suspect that they have concluded that he will not act, and they can get away with whatever they want to do in Syria. The worst they'll face will be US and UN protestations and unenforced red lines.
If Obama did decide to take action, with whom would he take it? Clearly, the Russians and Chinese would veto any UN action. NATO is divided, with the Canadians and the Germans against action. So if Obama did decide to do something, he'd have to resort to a "coalition of the willing" to go along with him, primarily France, Great Britain, and the Gulf Arabs. And that is his best case.
Here is part of the transcript of Assad's interview.I believe it was with Press TV, which is an Iranian outfit, but this account comes from Al Manar, which is Hezbollah's media arm.
What I find interesting is Assad's attempt to connect the Syrian rebels with Israel, and the forces of "resistance" to Israel with support for Assad.
I reassure that the battle, the developments in Al-Qusayr, and all the wail we hear are related to "Israel". They want to strangle the resistance. This old-new battle takes in each time a different shape. Now, the important thing is not Al-Qusayr as a city, but the borders. They want to strangle the resistance by land and sea, and here lies a question. It is said that the resistance should direct its arms at the enemy, hence at the South. This was said in May, 7 when some agents for Israel in Lebanon tried to meddle in the resistance's communication network. They said that the resistance shifted its weapons to the inside. They said the same thing about the Syrian Army. They said that the Syrian Army should fight on the borders with Israel. We clearly said that the army is fighting the enemy wherever he is present. When the enemy is in the North, or comes to the North, we move towards the North or the East or the West. The same applies to the resistance. Why is Hezbollah present on the borders in Lebanon or in Syria? Because the battle is against the Israeli enemy and its agents in Syria or in Lebanon.
In other words, Assad's strategy is simple and hardly novel: BLAME THE JEWS!
And it may work! If the IDF strikes weapons being turned over to Hezbollah, it will reinforce Assad's point. It reminds me of 1991 when the US launched Desert Storm's air campaign and Saddam Hussein promptly fired Scuds into Israel, hoping for their response.
The way the Bush administration avoided that trap was to take up the Scud hunting campaign to preempt Israeli action. But will Obama do the same this time, or will he stand by as the IDF strikes?
As I've said before, there is no clear and easy answer for Obama in this crisis. But he needs to do something, and not try to "lead from behind." The Syrian crisis is much larger than Syria. It now is linked to the Iranian nuclear issue, stability in Iraq and Lebanon, US-Russia relations, and the possibilities of some larger regional war. The Iranians and Russians are doing everything they can to place Obama in a difficult position. I suspect that they have concluded that he will not act, and they can get away with whatever they want to do in Syria. The worst they'll face will be US and UN protestations and unenforced red lines.
If Obama did decide to take action, with whom would he take it? Clearly, the Russians and Chinese would veto any UN action. NATO is divided, with the Canadians and the Germans against action. So if Obama did decide to do something, he'd have to resort to a "coalition of the willing" to go along with him, primarily France, Great Britain, and the Gulf Arabs. And that is his best case.
The Sunni-Shi'a Civil War: An Arab Take
http://www.aawsat.net/2013/05/article55303546
I've been commenting about this danger for weeks. Lest anyone think it's all in my Islamophobic head, here is an Arab opinion piece lamenting the deepening and spreading sectarian fighting.
"After recognizing that civil war is now the reality on the ground, many refused to acknowledge that it transformed once again, into a sectarian war. Opposition representatives claim that Syria will not fall into the quagmire of sectarian violence and that the Syrian opposition represents all communities. But talk is one thing, and reality another. What is happening on the ground in terms of killings, displacement, and exactly who is being targeted makes it crystal clear that this is a sectarian war with all the inherent ugliness and brutality, and it is tearing Syria apart"
I've been commenting about this danger for weeks. Lest anyone think it's all in my Islamophobic head, here is an Arab opinion piece lamenting the deepening and spreading sectarian fighting.
"After recognizing that civil war is now the reality on the ground, many refused to acknowledge that it transformed once again, into a sectarian war. Opposition representatives claim that Syria will not fall into the quagmire of sectarian violence and that the Syrian opposition represents all communities. But talk is one thing, and reality another. What is happening on the ground in terms of killings, displacement, and exactly who is being targeted makes it crystal clear that this is a sectarian war with all the inherent ugliness and brutality, and it is tearing Syria apart"
Situation in Iraq Deteriorates
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/05/sadr-maliki-iraq-warning.html
Sadr is openly maneuvering to undermine Maliki.
Sadr is openly maneuvering to undermine Maliki.
Syrian Rebels Demand Hezbollah withdrawal before Talks
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2013/05/30/Syria-opposition-says-no-peace-talks-until-Hezbollah-Iran-halt-invasion-.html
I doubt this is what the Obama administration had in mind yesterday when it demanded that Hezbollah withdraw and termed its presence in Syria "unacceptable." But the Syrian rebels have jumped on the wagon and are now likewise calling for the withdrawal, as a prerequisite for attending the talks sponsored by Russia and the US.
My interpretation is that the Syrian rebels are upping the pressure on the Obama administration to act. Clearly, the US wants the rebels to attend the conference, but Obama is hardly in a strong position to pressure them to do so when all they are demanding is something that he himself has demanded--namely Hezbollah's withdrawal.
In other words, the wily rebels just outmaneuvered Obama, because Hezbollah is not going to pull out and the rebels didn't really want to talk anyway. So now Obama will again look weak and, through his actions, appear to have thrown the proverbial wrench into the Russian sponsored talks. Alternatively, he could act, which is what the rebels want.
File this one under "smart diplomacy."
UPDATE! Now Al Jazeera is reporting that the Syrian rebels are also demanding that the Syrian army withdraw from Qusayr, the town recently captured in tough fighting. I wouldn't hold my breath in expectation of these talks. And again, this puts even more pressure on Obama.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/05/201353012242663209.html
I doubt this is what the Obama administration had in mind yesterday when it demanded that Hezbollah withdraw and termed its presence in Syria "unacceptable." But the Syrian rebels have jumped on the wagon and are now likewise calling for the withdrawal, as a prerequisite for attending the talks sponsored by Russia and the US.
My interpretation is that the Syrian rebels are upping the pressure on the Obama administration to act. Clearly, the US wants the rebels to attend the conference, but Obama is hardly in a strong position to pressure them to do so when all they are demanding is something that he himself has demanded--namely Hezbollah's withdrawal.
In other words, the wily rebels just outmaneuvered Obama, because Hezbollah is not going to pull out and the rebels didn't really want to talk anyway. So now Obama will again look weak and, through his actions, appear to have thrown the proverbial wrench into the Russian sponsored talks. Alternatively, he could act, which is what the rebels want.
File this one under "smart diplomacy."
UPDATE! Now Al Jazeera is reporting that the Syrian rebels are also demanding that the Syrian army withdraw from Qusayr, the town recently captured in tough fighting. I wouldn't hold my breath in expectation of these talks. And again, this puts even more pressure on Obama.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/05/201353012242663209.html
Ethiopian Dam a "Declaration of War"!
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/72730/Egypt/Politics-/Ethiopia-dam-is-declaration-of-war-AlGamaa-AlIslam.aspx
This is a follow up to yesterday's post about the growing friction between Egypt and Ethiopia over the latter's plan for a dam on the upper Nile. This leader of one of Egypt's Islamist groups takes a hardline stand.
Yesterday's post is here:
http://betterinformedcomment.blogspot.com/2013/05/egyptian-ethiopian-water-troubles.html
And here is another story about the Egyptians summoning the Ethiopian ambassador over the issue.
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/72655/Egypt/Politics-/Egypt-summons-Ethiopian-ambassador-over-Blue-Nile-.aspx
This is a follow up to yesterday's post about the growing friction between Egypt and Ethiopia over the latter's plan for a dam on the upper Nile. This leader of one of Egypt's Islamist groups takes a hardline stand.
Yesterday's post is here:
http://betterinformedcomment.blogspot.com/2013/05/egyptian-ethiopian-water-troubles.html
And here is another story about the Egyptians summoning the Ethiopian ambassador over the issue.
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/72655/Egypt/Politics-/Egypt-summons-Ethiopian-ambassador-over-Blue-Nile-.aspx
Wednesday, May 29, 2013
Obama the Incompetent!
https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentaryanalysis/washington-the-incompetent
So says this Arab editorial, and it's of a kind that I'm seeing more often as the days pass and the Syrian crisis drags on. There have always been, and always will be, hostile voices in the Arab world when it comes to US policy in the region. We back the wrong people; we are tools of the Jews. If you study the region, you grow to expect that.
But this is new. Increasingly, the editorialists aren't angry about the positions Obama is taking; they are frustrated because they can't figure out WHAT Obama is doing. They generally end up concluding that he doesn't know what in the hell he is doing. Hence this editorial that simply labels his administration "Incompetent."
People will respect a policy they understand and agree with. People may respect a policy they understand but disagree with, given the power of the United States. But people--in the Arab world, in Tehran, in Moscow, and in Ankara--will not respect incompetence.
So says this Arab editorial, and it's of a kind that I'm seeing more often as the days pass and the Syrian crisis drags on. There have always been, and always will be, hostile voices in the Arab world when it comes to US policy in the region. We back the wrong people; we are tools of the Jews. If you study the region, you grow to expect that.
But this is new. Increasingly, the editorialists aren't angry about the positions Obama is taking; they are frustrated because they can't figure out WHAT Obama is doing. They generally end up concluding that he doesn't know what in the hell he is doing. Hence this editorial that simply labels his administration "Incompetent."
People will respect a policy they understand and agree with. People may respect a policy they understand but disagree with, given the power of the United States. But people--in the Arab world, in Tehran, in Moscow, and in Ankara--will not respect incompetence.
More Syrian Chemical Attacks?
http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/UK-says-informs-UN-of-more-Syria-chemical-attacks-314740
The Brits say yes!
Where is that red line?
The Brits say yes!
Where is that red line?
FSA-Hezbollah Showdown?
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2013/05/28/FSA-gives-24-ultimatium-to-Hezbollah-fighters-in-Syria-.html
The link above reports the Free Syrian Army's ultimatum to Hezbollah to withdraw from Syria.
The link below reports that Hezbollah, far from withdrawing, has responded to the ultimatum by reinforcing its troops in Syria.
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2013/05/29/Hezbollah-sends-more-fighters-to-Syria-after-rebels-issue-ultimatum.html
Earlier, the FSA has warned that it will carry the fight into the Shi'ite areas of Lebanon.
As I have posted repeatedly, if you look at what is happening in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, you can clearly see evidence of a deepening sectarian struggle between Sunni and Shi'a Arabs. The Iranians, I would argue, are now "all-in" with Assad, and the Russians are clearly increasing their support. On the other side, supporting the FSA, are the Turks, most of the Arab states in the Arabian peninsula, the Muslim Brotherhood, and assorted Sunni Jihadists. The EU is leaning ever more toward FSA support.
What is US policy? Obama is still working on that.
The link above reports the Free Syrian Army's ultimatum to Hezbollah to withdraw from Syria.
The link below reports that Hezbollah, far from withdrawing, has responded to the ultimatum by reinforcing its troops in Syria.
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2013/05/29/Hezbollah-sends-more-fighters-to-Syria-after-rebels-issue-ultimatum.html
Earlier, the FSA has warned that it will carry the fight into the Shi'ite areas of Lebanon.
As I have posted repeatedly, if you look at what is happening in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, you can clearly see evidence of a deepening sectarian struggle between Sunni and Shi'a Arabs. The Iranians, I would argue, are now "all-in" with Assad, and the Russians are clearly increasing their support. On the other side, supporting the FSA, are the Turks, most of the Arab states in the Arabian peninsula, the Muslim Brotherhood, and assorted Sunni Jihadists. The EU is leaning ever more toward FSA support.
What is US policy? Obama is still working on that.
Egyptian-Ethiopian Water Troubles
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/72655/Egypt/Politics-/Egypt-summons-Ethiopian-ambassador-over-Blue-Nile-.aspx
This is a follow up to several earlier posts about looming water fights in the Middle East, especially between Egypt and Ethiopia. Most of the Nile's water flow through Ethiopia, and the old agreements governing its handling were drawn up by the British and favored Egypt and Sudan, both of which at the time were under quasi-British control. During the 19th century Egypt and Ethiopia actually went to war.
The Ethiopians want to revise those old agreements, and are planning to build a huge dam on the upper Nile. The implications for that construction downstream in the Sudan and Egypt are unclear. Once the reservoir is full, the flow should be close to normal, or at least that is the hope. But obviously while the Ethiopians are filling the reservoir, flow down the Nile will decline. Exactly how that will impact Sudan and Egypt is unclear, and the matter of much speculation.
Some sources have been playing up the potential for discord. The Egyptians, until recently, have been playing down such reports. But this story suggests that, in fact, all is not well and that the Ethiopians are not proceeding as promised, at least as the Egyptians understand the situation.
This is a follow up to several earlier posts about looming water fights in the Middle East, especially between Egypt and Ethiopia. Most of the Nile's water flow through Ethiopia, and the old agreements governing its handling were drawn up by the British and favored Egypt and Sudan, both of which at the time were under quasi-British control. During the 19th century Egypt and Ethiopia actually went to war.
The Ethiopians want to revise those old agreements, and are planning to build a huge dam on the upper Nile. The implications for that construction downstream in the Sudan and Egypt are unclear. Once the reservoir is full, the flow should be close to normal, or at least that is the hope. But obviously while the Ethiopians are filling the reservoir, flow down the Nile will decline. Exactly how that will impact Sudan and Egypt is unclear, and the matter of much speculation.
Some sources have been playing up the potential for discord. The Egyptians, until recently, have been playing down such reports. But this story suggests that, in fact, all is not well and that the Ethiopians are not proceeding as promised, at least as the Egyptians understand the situation.
Tuesday, May 28, 2013
The Anbar Re-Awakening!
http://www.azzaman.com/english/?p=772
The province that was the sight of the American "surge," Anbar, and the turn-around in the Iraq war that came with it, is now the sight of the Iraqi army's biggest offensive since American withdrawal. The force includes 20,000 troops with armor and helicopter support.
"Anbar, of which the city of Ramadi is the provincial capital, was for years an al-Qaeda stronghold. But the terror group’s control of the province came to an end when Sunni tribal leaders turned their again against it.
But the population has risen again this time in mass protests against the government. Violence has accompanied these protests, leading to a security vacuum which al-Qaeda is trying to exploit."
The province that was the sight of the American "surge," Anbar, and the turn-around in the Iraq war that came with it, is now the sight of the Iraqi army's biggest offensive since American withdrawal. The force includes 20,000 troops with armor and helicopter support.
"Anbar, of which the city of Ramadi is the provincial capital, was for years an al-Qaeda stronghold. But the terror group’s control of the province came to an end when Sunni tribal leaders turned their again against it.
But the population has risen again this time in mass protests against the government. Violence has accompanied these protests, leading to a security vacuum which al-Qaeda is trying to exploit."
Syrians Prepare New Offensive
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/May-28/218614-regime-forces-ready-to-retake-syrias-aleppo-report.ashx
This time their target is Aleppo.
Assad's forces are clearly on a roll. If the West doesn't step up support for the rebels, Assad will win, and along with him Hezbollah and Iran.
And if we are going to act, we better do it sooner rather than later. Once the Russians get those new missiles set up in Syria, a no-fly zone may become more difficult, and may entail attacks against missile sights manned by Russian trainers.
If the Obama administration is considering a no-fly zone, they ought to do it now.
Maybe they'll wait until Aleppo falls to Assad?
This time their target is Aleppo.
Assad's forces are clearly on a roll. If the West doesn't step up support for the rebels, Assad will win, and along with him Hezbollah and Iran.
And if we are going to act, we better do it sooner rather than later. Once the Russians get those new missiles set up in Syria, a no-fly zone may become more difficult, and may entail attacks against missile sights manned by Russian trainers.
If the Obama administration is considering a no-fly zone, they ought to do it now.
Maybe they'll wait until Aleppo falls to Assad?
Monday, May 27, 2013
EU Arms Embargo Ends
http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/aljazeeraworld/2013/04/2013415114923968435.html
It seems they didn't so much vote to lift the embargo, as they failed to come up with the votes to maintain it. But it's off on 1 June and the sanctions against Assad remain in place.
This will place even more pressure on the Obama administration (as did Senator McCain's surprise call on the rebels inside Syria).
I guess this is all part and parcel of "leading from behind."
It seems they didn't so much vote to lift the embargo, as they failed to come up with the votes to maintain it. But it's off on 1 June and the sanctions against Assad remain in place.
This will place even more pressure on the Obama administration (as did Senator McCain's surprise call on the rebels inside Syria).
I guess this is all part and parcel of "leading from behind."
Sunday, May 26, 2013
Sunni-Shia Fighting Spreads to Beirut
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Local-News/2013/May-26/218363-rocket-hits-southern-beirut-suburb-wounds-4.ashx#axzz2URsJaylO
Lebanese Sunnis, I suspect, fire rockets into Hezbollah stronghold in south Beirut. With other sectarian fighting going on in Tripoli, the Sunni-Shia fighting in Syria and Iraq is slowly spreading go Lebanon, as Hezbollah throws its weight behind Assad.
Lebanese Sunnis, I suspect, fire rockets into Hezbollah stronghold in south Beirut. With other sectarian fighting going on in Tripoli, the Sunni-Shia fighting in Syria and Iraq is slowly spreading go Lebanon, as Hezbollah throws its weight behind Assad.
Saturday, May 25, 2013
Salafists Organizing in Lebanon
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Columnist/2013/May-25/218241-in-lebanon-salafists-are-on-the-move.ashx#axzz2UALX9nRK
Sunnis and Shi'a are already fighting in Tripoli. If the fighting in Syria continues, it is going to spread to Lebanon on a larger scale.
Sunnis and Shi'a are already fighting in Tripoli. If the fighting in Syria continues, it is going to spread to Lebanon on a larger scale.
Thursday, May 23, 2013
Monday, May 20, 2013
Iraq: 200+ Dead in Last Week
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/05/201352071548212347.html
Tribal leaders warn of full-scale civil war.
Tribal leaders warn of full-scale civil war.
Russians: Talks with NO Preconditions
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/71918/World/Region/Assad-foes-must-come-to-Syria-meeting-without-cond.aspx
Russians now saying parties must come to talks without preconditions. That's a big deal, especially for the US, given that Kerry has signed on to the talks. No preconditions means that Assad does not have to go, which is the US position.
So now what does Obama do? Does he back away from his "Assad must go" position, having already backed away from his chemical "red line"? Or do we not show up, and piss off the Russians?
I am sorry, but the more I watch this administration handle its first true crisis, the more it looks amateurish. These people aren't competent, and it's beginning to show. I hope we don't have to pay to large a price for their incompetence.
Russians now saying parties must come to talks without preconditions. That's a big deal, especially for the US, given that Kerry has signed on to the talks. No preconditions means that Assad does not have to go, which is the US position.
So now what does Obama do? Does he back away from his "Assad must go" position, having already backed away from his chemical "red line"? Or do we not show up, and piss off the Russians?
I am sorry, but the more I watch this administration handle its first true crisis, the more it looks amateurish. These people aren't competent, and it's beginning to show. I hope we don't have to pay to large a price for their incompetence.
Russian Press Threats against Turkey
http://rt.com/op-edge/turkey-syria-erdongan-clark-477/
This report, citing non-Russian experts, nevertheless predicts that if the Turks don't back off their support of the rebels in Syria, Turkey itself will suffer more terrorism.
This is yet anther indication of the ways the Syrian crisis is spreading. I have posted before, several times, about the growing spread of sectarian--Sunni-Shia--conflict from Lebanon to the Iranian border. Now it seems possible that this fighting could spread northwards into Sunni Turkey as well.
It will be interesting, if this does happen, to see how the Turks respond. After all, the Turkish PM is scheduled to go to Gaza, which is run by Hamas. Hamas is Sunni, but it gets its support, along with Hezbollah, from Iran.
This report, citing non-Russian experts, nevertheless predicts that if the Turks don't back off their support of the rebels in Syria, Turkey itself will suffer more terrorism.
This is yet anther indication of the ways the Syrian crisis is spreading. I have posted before, several times, about the growing spread of sectarian--Sunni-Shia--conflict from Lebanon to the Iranian border. Now it seems possible that this fighting could spread northwards into Sunni Turkey as well.
It will be interesting, if this does happen, to see how the Turks respond. After all, the Turkish PM is scheduled to go to Gaza, which is run by Hamas. Hamas is Sunni, but it gets its support, along with Hezbollah, from Iran.
Syrians Continue Advance
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/May-20/217681-assad-hezbollah-forces-advance-into-qusair.ashx#axzz2TqsmZ2pr
In fact, it appears to be going well enough that the Iranians are covering the success by Assad's forces, supported by Hezbollah.
http://tehrantimes.com/middle-east/107847-syria-army-advances-on-qusayr
And this piece from Mehr explains why the Syrian successes are important.
http://old.mehrnews.com/en/newsdetail.aspx?NewsID=1822167
"Al-Qusayr is a strategic region and for its mountainous terrain, it overlooks other surrounding regions, covering all connecting roads. As said before, Al-Qusayr was providing the route for arms and forces entry to Syria, and functioned as headquarters for terrorists to manage the affairs from and sent troops to different regions.
Having putting full siege on Al-Qusayr, Syrian army managed a great victory by overtaking large part of the city. Currently, whole south, west and east of Al-Qusayr are controlled by Syrian army, with northern part being only in terrorists’ control. During overtake, hundreds of terrorists were captured, destroying their spirit, and inflicting heavy costs to opposition forces."
And note this claim that the Israelis have special forces units operating in Syria helping the Al-Nusra Front.
"Khabar Press news website reported Israeli Special Forces have entered Al-Qusayr to help Al-Nusra Front. Intelligence agents entered Syria from Lebanon to prevent Syrian army progress towards Al-Qusayr."
I find it hard to believe that the IDF would help Al Nusra itself. But what better way to de-legitimize Al Nusra than by connecting it to the Jews.
In fact, it appears to be going well enough that the Iranians are covering the success by Assad's forces, supported by Hezbollah.
http://tehrantimes.com/middle-east/107847-syria-army-advances-on-qusayr
And this piece from Mehr explains why the Syrian successes are important.
http://old.mehrnews.com/en/newsdetail.aspx?NewsID=1822167
"Al-Qusayr is a strategic region and for its mountainous terrain, it overlooks other surrounding regions, covering all connecting roads. As said before, Al-Qusayr was providing the route for arms and forces entry to Syria, and functioned as headquarters for terrorists to manage the affairs from and sent troops to different regions.
Having putting full siege on Al-Qusayr, Syrian army managed a great victory by overtaking large part of the city. Currently, whole south, west and east of Al-Qusayr are controlled by Syrian army, with northern part being only in terrorists’ control. During overtake, hundreds of terrorists were captured, destroying their spirit, and inflicting heavy costs to opposition forces."
And note this claim that the Israelis have special forces units operating in Syria helping the Al-Nusra Front.
"Khabar Press news website reported Israeli Special Forces have entered Al-Qusayr to help Al-Nusra Front. Intelligence agents entered Syria from Lebanon to prevent Syrian army progress towards Al-Qusayr."
I find it hard to believe that the IDF would help Al Nusra itself. But what better way to de-legitimize Al Nusra than by connecting it to the Jews.
Saturday, May 18, 2013
Iranians Declare Al-Nusra Takfiris!
http://old.mehrnews.com/en/newsdetail.aspx?NewsID=1822030
This is from an Iranian source. What is interesting isn't that the Al-Nusra fighters attacked and desecrated the cemetery and the tomb, it's that the Iranians have declared Al-Nusra fighters"Takfiris," i.e., apostates. Usually, it's the Sunni Salafists who declare their enemies Takfiris, because you can kill apostates. For example, you declare Anwar al-Sadat a Takfir, and then you can assassinate him. But in this case this seems to be an official position taken by the Iranian government.
This is from an Iranian source. What is interesting isn't that the Al-Nusra fighters attacked and desecrated the cemetery and the tomb, it's that the Iranians have declared Al-Nusra fighters"Takfiris," i.e., apostates. Usually, it's the Sunni Salafists who declare their enemies Takfiris, because you can kill apostates. For example, you declare Anwar al-Sadat a Takfir, and then you can assassinate him. But in this case this seems to be an official position taken by the Iranian government.
Arab View of Obama's Betrayal
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2013/05/18/Obama-s-betrayal-.html
"In light of the events of the past two years, the U.S. administration’s adoption of Moscow’s interpretation of the Geneva Agreement represents a betrayal of the Syrian people which is, in many ways, parallel to Obama’s betrayal of the Palestinian people after the promises he made on his first presidential visit to the Middle East."
Note that this author has the number of Syrian dead up to 100,000.
"In light of the events of the past two years, the U.S. administration’s adoption of Moscow’s interpretation of the Geneva Agreement represents a betrayal of the Syrian people which is, in many ways, parallel to Obama’s betrayal of the Palestinian people after the promises he made on his first presidential visit to the Middle East."
Note that this author has the number of Syrian dead up to 100,000.
Analysis of Turkish Policy
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/05/obama-erdogan-syria-challenges.html
Several interesting insights, from a Turkish perspective.
Several interesting insights, from a Turkish perspective.
Will Syrian Fighting Spread into Lebanon?
https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentaryanalysis/the-imminent-hezbollah-nusra-war
Lebanese source fears that it will.
Lebanese source fears that it will.
More Syrian Chemicals?
http://www.timesofisrael.com/syrian-rebels-dozens-hurt-in-chemical-weapons-attack-in-damascus/
According to this report, and claims from the rebels that they have killed Hezbollah and Iranian fighters.
According to this report, and claims from the rebels that they have killed Hezbollah and Iranian fighters.
Friday, May 17, 2013
Erdogan: The New Ottomans?
http://old.mehrnews.com/en/newsdetail.aspx?NewsID=1821592
This is very interesting. The piece argues that he has "spared no opportunity to revive the Ottoman empire; spends public budgets for supporting FSA and Al-Nusra front terrorists in Syria; adopts Arabic traditional attire; and, poses himself as kings for those who have abandoned their homes to escape the terrorism supported by Erdoğan, and live in camps where tens of women are being raped and harassed on daily basis, or where, a few days ago, a Syrian child was arrested for objecting the police for harassing one of his female relatives."
This is very interesting. The piece argues that he has "spared no opportunity to revive the Ottoman empire; spends public budgets for supporting FSA and Al-Nusra front terrorists in Syria; adopts Arabic traditional attire; and, poses himself as kings for those who have abandoned their homes to escape the terrorism supported by Erdoğan, and live in camps where tens of women are being raped and harassed on daily basis, or where, a few days ago, a Syrian child was arrested for objecting the police for harassing one of his female relatives."
Interesting Iranian Take on Syria
http://old.mehrnews.com/en/newsdetail.aspx?NewsID=1821928
The Iranians in this report claim that the Turkish PM's meeting with Obama was designed to assure the removal of Assad.
At the same time the Russians are reporting that Kerry's talks with their FM show that Obama is committed to talks that will include Assad or his representative, in other words that Obama has backed away from his Assad must go position.
If you read the American press reports, it seems as if both these assertions are true! Of course, the problem is that if they are both true there is no US policy. Or looked at another way, our policy is to agree with whomever were are conversing. So we assure Erdogan that Assad has to go, but we assure the Russians that we agree with them about negotiations that in their mind would allow Assad to remain in power.
I am afraid that it is becoming apparent that, with regard to Syria, we don't have a policy. Obama doesn't know what to do.
To be fair, I can understand that. Assad is a butcher, a client of Tehran, and the desire to get rid of him is thus logical and clearly in the interests of the US.
On the other hand, recent reports make it clear that the dominant force within the rebel alliance are jihadists, and themselves butchers who massacre prisoners, mutilate the dead, and eat their hearts and livers.
Moreover, Assad's forces seem to be rebounding, and their Russian allies are sending cash, ships, and now improved air defense missiles that, once in place, will make any no-fly zone much harder to implement. Is Obama going to send US air assets into action over Tartus if Russian naval vessels are in the roadstead?
So Obama is being pressured by his Turkish ally to act, while simultaneously he is being cautioned, and warned, by his Russian buddy to not act.
To be honest, if I were president I do not know what I'd do. If Obama takes a more active course, alongside the Turks, he runs big risks with the Russians and the prospect that even if his policy is successful, he'll be blamed for helping jihadists take power in Damascus. If he does nothing, and allows the killing to drag on for another year or more, he'll piss off the Turks and our Sunni Arab allies and look indecisive and weak.
The Iranians in this report claim that the Turkish PM's meeting with Obama was designed to assure the removal of Assad.
At the same time the Russians are reporting that Kerry's talks with their FM show that Obama is committed to talks that will include Assad or his representative, in other words that Obama has backed away from his Assad must go position.
If you read the American press reports, it seems as if both these assertions are true! Of course, the problem is that if they are both true there is no US policy. Or looked at another way, our policy is to agree with whomever were are conversing. So we assure Erdogan that Assad has to go, but we assure the Russians that we agree with them about negotiations that in their mind would allow Assad to remain in power.
I am afraid that it is becoming apparent that, with regard to Syria, we don't have a policy. Obama doesn't know what to do.
To be fair, I can understand that. Assad is a butcher, a client of Tehran, and the desire to get rid of him is thus logical and clearly in the interests of the US.
On the other hand, recent reports make it clear that the dominant force within the rebel alliance are jihadists, and themselves butchers who massacre prisoners, mutilate the dead, and eat their hearts and livers.
Moreover, Assad's forces seem to be rebounding, and their Russian allies are sending cash, ships, and now improved air defense missiles that, once in place, will make any no-fly zone much harder to implement. Is Obama going to send US air assets into action over Tartus if Russian naval vessels are in the roadstead?
So Obama is being pressured by his Turkish ally to act, while simultaneously he is being cautioned, and warned, by his Russian buddy to not act.
To be honest, if I were president I do not know what I'd do. If Obama takes a more active course, alongside the Turks, he runs big risks with the Russians and the prospect that even if his policy is successful, he'll be blamed for helping jihadists take power in Damascus. If he does nothing, and allows the killing to drag on for another year or more, he'll piss off the Turks and our Sunni Arab allies and look indecisive and weak.
Hezbollah Rationale for Syrian Intervention
http://www.almanar.com.lb/english/adetails.php?eid=92809&cid=23&fromval=1&frid=23&seccatid=20&s1=1
This is from Al-Manar, the media arm of Hezbollah. Nothing surprising, but it's as official as we're likely to get.
This is from Al-Manar, the media arm of Hezbollah. Nothing surprising, but it's as official as we're likely to get.
Hezbollah on Jordanian Border!
http://www.aawsat.net/2013/05/article55302083
According to this story, they are, and Jordan's Sunni Salafists don't like it.
More evidence of the spillover effect from Syria, as sectarian strike spreads from the Mediterranean to the Iranian border. Nearly 50 dead in Iraq earlier today form a mosque bombing.
According to this story, they are, and Jordan's Sunni Salafists don't like it.
More evidence of the spillover effect from Syria, as sectarian strike spreads from the Mediterranean to the Iranian border. Nearly 50 dead in Iraq earlier today form a mosque bombing.
Shia Bomb Sunni Mosque
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/71679/World/Region/Bombs-against-Iraqi-Sunnis-kill-.aspx
Death toll mounts, near 50.
But I'm sure this had nothing to do with Islam.
Death toll mounts, near 50.
But I'm sure this had nothing to do with Islam.
Dolphin #5 for the IDF
http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Israels-5th-Dolphin-submarine-unveiled-in-Germany-311454
These are long-range diesel boats. They all have tubes large enough, either through construction or modification, to carry cruise missiles with nuclear warheads. I suspect that the Israelis keep at least one, if not two, in the Arabian Sea at all times. Each boat can carry as many as sixteen missiles. So two Dolphins could do a lot of damage.
It is interesting that the Germans, despite the trend in Europe to back away from Israel, keep supplying the Israelis with the Dolphins.
These are long-range diesel boats. They all have tubes large enough, either through construction or modification, to carry cruise missiles with nuclear warheads. I suspect that the Israelis keep at least one, if not two, in the Arabian Sea at all times. Each boat can carry as many as sixteen missiles. So two Dolphins could do a lot of damage.
It is interesting that the Germans, despite the trend in Europe to back away from Israel, keep supplying the Israelis with the Dolphins.
Thursday, May 16, 2013
Putin Plays Hardball
http://www.timesofisrael.com/unmoved-by-israel-russia-will-deliver-top-air-defense-system-to-assad/
Putin is obviously putting the screws to Israel and the US. Continued aid. Push for talks and a cease-fire. Reinforcing the Mediterranean Fleet from the Pacific. Sending enhanced air-defense missiles to Assad.
The last named makes it harder for the Israelis to do what they are doing, but it also would make it harder for the US to set up no-fly zones at some point in the future.
Under normal circumstances, I'd expect our president to back down. But you have to wonder with all these sandals going on, if he might not be tempted to play it tougher than usual in an effort to redirect people's attention from domestic to foreign policy?
Putin is obviously putting the screws to Israel and the US. Continued aid. Push for talks and a cease-fire. Reinforcing the Mediterranean Fleet from the Pacific. Sending enhanced air-defense missiles to Assad.
The last named makes it harder for the Israelis to do what they are doing, but it also would make it harder for the US to set up no-fly zones at some point in the future.
Under normal circumstances, I'd expect our president to back down. But you have to wonder with all these sandals going on, if he might not be tempted to play it tougher than usual in an effort to redirect people's attention from domestic to foreign policy?
Obama's Syrian Betrayal?
http://www.aawsat.net/2013/05/article55301997
I don't know. I think Obama makes sense when he has second-thoughts after seeing the "good guys" eating their dead.
I don't know. I think Obama makes sense when he has second-thoughts after seeing the "good guys" eating their dead.
Cannibalism in Syria?
http://www.tehrantimes.com/middle-east/107743-cannibal-terrorist-says-video-from-syria-is-real
The Iranian press is doing all it can to play up the video of the Syrian rebel eating the heart of a dead soldier. "Cannibal Terrorist" has a nice ring to it.
The Iranian press is doing all it can to play up the video of the Syrian rebel eating the heart of a dead soldier. "Cannibal Terrorist" has a nice ring to it.
More Massacres in Syria
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/May-16/217304-russian-warships-enter-mediterranean.ashx#axzz2TJH6vPiP
The "Good Guys" keep getting bad press.
The "Good Guys" keep getting bad press.
Fifth Eskadra Back in Business!
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/May-16/217304-russian-warships-enter-mediterranean.ashx#axzz2TJH6vPiP
Russians are actually shifting warships from the Pacific to the Med.
Russians are actually shifting warships from the Pacific to the Med.
Wednesday, May 15, 2013
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
Morsi's Popularity Sinking
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/71446/Egypt/Politics-/Morsis-popularity-wanes--months-into-Egypt-preside.aspx
Bad poll news and, below, 2 million sign a petition to get rid of the guy.
http://www.arabnews.com/news/451580
Bad poll news and, below, 2 million sign a petition to get rid of the guy.
http://www.arabnews.com/news/451580
Egyptian Army Will Not Police Streets
http://www.ikhwanweb.com/article.php?id=30932
Different ways to read this.
"You're on your own!"
"Don't blame us if things suck!"
"We won't move until things get out of hand, and then...."
Different ways to read this.
"You're on your own!"
"Don't blame us if things suck!"
"We won't move until things get out of hand, and then...."
Iran's Water Shortage!!!
http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8903191410
And note that this report is from the Tehran Times!
http://tehrantimes.com/politics/107700-iran-will-soon-face-water-crisis-deputy-minister
"Addressing the second International Drought Initiative (IDI) meeting in Tehran, Daemi also said that Iran has received very low rainfall over the past 10 years and it is predicted that the annual volume of water available per capita would decline to one fourth in the next 20 years."
I wonder who could be behind this? I bet: Jewish sorcery!
And note that this report is from the Tehran Times!
http://tehrantimes.com/politics/107700-iran-will-soon-face-water-crisis-deputy-minister
"Addressing the second International Drought Initiative (IDI) meeting in Tehran, Daemi also said that Iran has received very low rainfall over the past 10 years and it is predicted that the annual volume of water available per capita would decline to one fourth in the next 20 years."
I wonder who could be behind this? I bet: Jewish sorcery!
Monday, May 13, 2013
Arab Anti-Semitism?
Here's a classic example. Jews are lairs, cowards, cheap, and they poisoned the Prophet. As for Hitler and the Holocaust, its an exaggeration. The main problem was that Hitler didn't kill them all! He was too damned restrained.
The Empire Strikes Back!
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/May-13/216892-syrian-troops-take-full-control-of-strategic-town.ashx#axzz2T24iAkZQ
If you start piecing together the news reports, it does appear that Assad's forces have regained the upper hand.
That is not to say that he has won the civil war, but it does appear that the seemingly inexorable tide of rebel advances has ebbed and begun to recede.
What dos this mean? Well, it does not mean that Assad has won, or is winning. It does mean that there will be increasing pressures placed on the Arabs, the West, and the United States to step up aid to the rebels. It probably also means that the rebels who will rise to a position of leadership will be the most brutal--the Jihadist factions.
If you look at what Assad's friends are saying--the Iranians and the Russians--about a negotiated settlement, then the Syrian military's battlefield gains ought to be viewed not as a war winning effort, but as an attempt to coerce the rebels into talks that will allow Assad's power to survive in some fashion. The rebels are now fighting Assad's army, Hezbollah militia from Lebanon, and some Shi'ite Iraqi militia.
This only serves to raise the stakes for the US, and the Obama administration. If--IF--Assad holds on, his survival will be seen as a victory for the Iranians, his steadfast ally, and a clear defeat for the United States, the West (minus Russia), and its Sunni Arab partners.
Redlines aside, Obama has been clear that Assad has to go, just as Qaddafi had to go. And if Assad does not "go," then Obama's policy has failed. if you read Kerry's diplomatic efforts to, arm-in-arm with Russia, achieve a negotiated settlement, you could argue that the US is already willing to concede defeat.
That's not to argue that Obama/Kerry are wrong to pursue such a policy. They probably have concluded that leaving Assad in power is not as poor an outcome as overthrowing him and replacing him with a jihadist emirate! In other words, Obama's is realizing that his initial--he has to go policy--wasn't well thought out. So now he's trying to back that policy down and embrace an outcome that will incorporate the "will of the Syrian people" as part of a negotiated settlement.
The problem is, I don't think the rebels want a negotiated settlement that leaves Assad in power in any fashion, however limited. The jihadists certainly do not want that, and since have demonstrated that they are not afraid to take on the USSR or the US, I doubt very much that they will back down in the face of the Assad regime.
If you start piecing together the news reports, it does appear that Assad's forces have regained the upper hand.
That is not to say that he has won the civil war, but it does appear that the seemingly inexorable tide of rebel advances has ebbed and begun to recede.
What dos this mean? Well, it does not mean that Assad has won, or is winning. It does mean that there will be increasing pressures placed on the Arabs, the West, and the United States to step up aid to the rebels. It probably also means that the rebels who will rise to a position of leadership will be the most brutal--the Jihadist factions.
If you look at what Assad's friends are saying--the Iranians and the Russians--about a negotiated settlement, then the Syrian military's battlefield gains ought to be viewed not as a war winning effort, but as an attempt to coerce the rebels into talks that will allow Assad's power to survive in some fashion. The rebels are now fighting Assad's army, Hezbollah militia from Lebanon, and some Shi'ite Iraqi militia.
This only serves to raise the stakes for the US, and the Obama administration. If--IF--Assad holds on, his survival will be seen as a victory for the Iranians, his steadfast ally, and a clear defeat for the United States, the West (minus Russia), and its Sunni Arab partners.
Redlines aside, Obama has been clear that Assad has to go, just as Qaddafi had to go. And if Assad does not "go," then Obama's policy has failed. if you read Kerry's diplomatic efforts to, arm-in-arm with Russia, achieve a negotiated settlement, you could argue that the US is already willing to concede defeat.
That's not to argue that Obama/Kerry are wrong to pursue such a policy. They probably have concluded that leaving Assad in power is not as poor an outcome as overthrowing him and replacing him with a jihadist emirate! In other words, Obama's is realizing that his initial--he has to go policy--wasn't well thought out. So now he's trying to back that policy down and embrace an outcome that will incorporate the "will of the Syrian people" as part of a negotiated settlement.
The problem is, I don't think the rebels want a negotiated settlement that leaves Assad in power in any fashion, however limited. The jihadists certainly do not want that, and since have demonstrated that they are not afraid to take on the USSR or the US, I doubt very much that they will back down in the face of the Assad regime.
Syria and Water!
http://www.timesofisrael.com/lack-of-water-sparked-syrias-conflict-and-it-will-make-egypt-more-militant-too/#.UY4xAJLVdGc.email
This is a very interesting line of argument regarding Syria. I argues in my book The Last Crusade that Iraq was the best place for us to try to jumpt start something approaching a modern secular state becuase Iraq was the only Arab state in the Middle East that has both water and oil. Some have water, Egypt; some have oil, Saudi; but only Iraq has both.
When I was in graduate school, the population of Saudi Arabia was about 5 million, or less. Today it is 25 times that and can be sustained ONLY through massive and expensive imports of food and costly de-salinization efforts.
What will happen when the world begins to better exploit its shale oil and natural gas and requires fewer imports from the Gulf? How will the Saudis feed their population? Keep in mind that recently the US has been pumping more crude than Saudi Arabia!
If you look around a bit on the web you will also find stories about a brewing problem between Ethiopia and Egypt. The Ethiopians are planning on damming up some of the headwaters of the Nile. There are different estimates of how much damage that would do downstream in Egypt.
This is a very interesting line of argument regarding Syria. I argues in my book The Last Crusade that Iraq was the best place for us to try to jumpt start something approaching a modern secular state becuase Iraq was the only Arab state in the Middle East that has both water and oil. Some have water, Egypt; some have oil, Saudi; but only Iraq has both.
When I was in graduate school, the population of Saudi Arabia was about 5 million, or less. Today it is 25 times that and can be sustained ONLY through massive and expensive imports of food and costly de-salinization efforts.
What will happen when the world begins to better exploit its shale oil and natural gas and requires fewer imports from the Gulf? How will the Saudis feed their population? Keep in mind that recently the US has been pumping more crude than Saudi Arabia!
If you look around a bit on the web you will also find stories about a brewing problem between Ethiopia and Egypt. The Ethiopians are planning on damming up some of the headwaters of the Nile. There are different estimates of how much damage that would do downstream in Egypt.
Monday, May 6, 2013
Former Hizbollah Leader Claims Iran Forced Nasrallah to Intervene in Syria
He also warns, as I have been warning, of the prospects of a larger Sunni-Shi'ite conflict.
Sunday, May 5, 2013
Friday, May 3, 2013
More Signs of a Syrian Counteroffensive
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/May-03/215875-syria-widens-campaign-to-uproot-rebels.ashx#axzz2S9eAeC7o
If these efforts fail, then the Assad regime is probably doomed. If they succeed, then the war will go on, and on, and on.
If these efforts fail, then the Assad regime is probably doomed. If they succeed, then the war will go on, and on, and on.
Hearts and Minds in Gaza
http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Analysis-Egypt-Iran-in-power-struggle-over-Gaza-311944
A fight for control of Hamas in Gaza, between Tehran and Cairo.
A fight for control of Hamas in Gaza, between Tehran and Cairo.
Thursday, May 2, 2013
Assad Regime Still Has Some Power
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/May-02/215787-syrian-troops-advance-in-homs.ashx#axzz2S9eAeC7o
The key to watch is will they succeed or fail.
The key to watch is will they succeed or fail.
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