http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/02/the-muslim-brotherhoods-213-year-revolution/273195/#.USz1QVdD2CY.email
This article addresses the problem of context, so often missing from discussions about issues related to the Middle East.
Tuesday, February 26, 2013
Iranians Photoshop Michelle Obama!
http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2013/02/26/268396.html
Gotta love those crazy Iranians. Since Michelle Obama's Oscar dress was too revealing, the Iranian photo-shoppers went to work and redesigned her dress.
Gotta love those crazy Iranians. Since Michelle Obama's Oscar dress was too revealing, the Iranian photo-shoppers went to work and redesigned her dress.
Tehran Times and 911 Denial
http://tehrantimes.com/component/content/article/84-perspectives/104097-cia-mossad-staged-911-to-further-israeli-agenda-
This story from the Tehran Times claims that 9/11 was an inside job by the CIA and the Mossad. BTW, the Jews control the United States, in case you were not aware of that.
Of course, the Iranians don't write this crap themselves, they find Western lefties--in this case, Rodney Shakespeare of Progressive Radio News--to author this shit and then they publish it as opinion.
This story from the Tehran Times claims that 9/11 was an inside job by the CIA and the Mossad. BTW, the Jews control the United States, in case you were not aware of that.
Of course, the Iranians don't write this crap themselves, they find Western lefties--in this case, Rodney Shakespeare of Progressive Radio News--to author this shit and then they publish it as opinion.
Iran: We Know Your Offer and Forget It
http://old.mehrnews.com/en/newsdetail.aspx?NewsID=1817905
The Iranians claim to already have a copy of the latest 5+1 proposal for the next round of nuke talks. And they've already declared it unacceptable.
The Iranians claim to already have a copy of the latest 5+1 proposal for the next round of nuke talks. And they've already declared it unacceptable.
Friday, February 22, 2013
Tunisian President Asks Islamist to Form Government
http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2013/02/22/267720.html
He claims that he intends to cast a wide net in the formation of the government. We can hope.
The sad part of the story is that no matter what kind of government Tunisia ends up with, the fact is that the old non-Islamist government collapsed as a result of a political assassination. In that sense, from the point of view of the assassin, it worked. That reality will do nothing but invite similarly minded people to try the same tactic again, in Tunisia or elsewhere.
He claims that he intends to cast a wide net in the formation of the government. We can hope.
The sad part of the story is that no matter what kind of government Tunisia ends up with, the fact is that the old non-Islamist government collapsed as a result of a political assassination. In that sense, from the point of view of the assassin, it worked. That reality will do nothing but invite similarly minded people to try the same tactic again, in Tunisia or elsewhere.
Gazan Jihadists Operating in Syria
http://www.algemeiner.com/2013/02/19/gazans-joining-jihadist-groups-in-syria/?cb=08165311750490218
If true, and I would be surprised if it was not, what does this mean?
My opinion.
When Assad falls, the jihadists will next set their sights on Jordan. Once they do, the Hashemite Kingdom is probably doomed.
And then what? Much will depend on how things develop in Egypt.
In my view, the pace toward the abyss, which I wrote beckoned in one of my books, is now hastening. I think I can even see it ahead.
If true, and I would be surprised if it was not, what does this mean?
My opinion.
When Assad falls, the jihadists will next set their sights on Jordan. Once they do, the Hashemite Kingdom is probably doomed.
And then what? Much will depend on how things develop in Egypt.
In my view, the pace toward the abyss, which I wrote beckoned in one of my books, is now hastening. I think I can even see it ahead.
Iranian Fatwa against 3G!
http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2013/02/22/267706.html
This is illustrative of the forces at work in the Islamic world. The introduction of 3G telecommunications prompts the release of a religious fatwa.
Of course, this reminds me of the decision by the Ottoman ulema in the early sixteenth century to ban the introduction of the printing press into the empire, at least for its Muslim subjects. As a result, the Ottoman Empire didn't lift the final restrictions on printing until the nineteenth century.
You have to ask yourself the question: what is it that the Mullahs think will happen if the people own 3G devices?
I know that if you say that Islam, either as a religion or as a culture, is a drag on progress you get attacked as an Islamophobe. And I'm sure that there will be people who will argue that this effort has nothing to do with Islam and is somehow rooted in some other aspect of Iranian culture (as if Iranian culture hasn't been shaped almost exclusively by Islam for the past 1300 years).
But I don't buy it. Sorry.
Islam is one of two things.
You can believe that Islam reflects the literal word of God as dictated to the Prophet Muhammad in the seventh century AD. If you believe that, then you should already be a Muslim. If you are not, you need to head to the nearest mosque and declare yourself a Muslim, otherwise you are headed to hell.
What if you don't believe that? Then what is Islam? It is a comprehensive system for society devised by an obvious talented fellow in the Arabian peninsula in the seventh century. At the time, I would argue as a historian, that it was rather progressive, which was a main reason for its early successes. But Islam is, and always has been, a far less flexible creed than Christianity. And, in my opinion, that lack of flexibility combined with its comprehensive nature is the main reason why the Islamic world looks like it does today. Bottom line: no one ought to be surprised that a seventh-century societal system yields seventh-century results. Hence, no 3G!
This is illustrative of the forces at work in the Islamic world. The introduction of 3G telecommunications prompts the release of a religious fatwa.
Of course, this reminds me of the decision by the Ottoman ulema in the early sixteenth century to ban the introduction of the printing press into the empire, at least for its Muslim subjects. As a result, the Ottoman Empire didn't lift the final restrictions on printing until the nineteenth century.
You have to ask yourself the question: what is it that the Mullahs think will happen if the people own 3G devices?
I know that if you say that Islam, either as a religion or as a culture, is a drag on progress you get attacked as an Islamophobe. And I'm sure that there will be people who will argue that this effort has nothing to do with Islam and is somehow rooted in some other aspect of Iranian culture (as if Iranian culture hasn't been shaped almost exclusively by Islam for the past 1300 years).
But I don't buy it. Sorry.
Islam is one of two things.
You can believe that Islam reflects the literal word of God as dictated to the Prophet Muhammad in the seventh century AD. If you believe that, then you should already be a Muslim. If you are not, you need to head to the nearest mosque and declare yourself a Muslim, otherwise you are headed to hell.
What if you don't believe that? Then what is Islam? It is a comprehensive system for society devised by an obvious talented fellow in the Arabian peninsula in the seventh century. At the time, I would argue as a historian, that it was rather progressive, which was a main reason for its early successes. But Islam is, and always has been, a far less flexible creed than Christianity. And, in my opinion, that lack of flexibility combined with its comprehensive nature is the main reason why the Islamic world looks like it does today. Bottom line: no one ought to be surprised that a seventh-century societal system yields seventh-century results. Hence, no 3G!
Thursday, February 21, 2013
How the Iranian Media Operates
http://www.irna.ir/en/News/80554877/Politic/IAEA_releases_new_report_on_Iran
This is a perfect example of how the Iranian state media operates. Above is a link to a story from the IRNA about the release by the IAEA of a new report on the Iranian nuclear program. The story contends that the Iranians are not working on a weapon and that the international community has no right to levy sanctions against Iran. Bu this story about the IAEA report never actually states any details about the report. What did it actually say?
For that let's go to the BBC.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-21537206
The IAEA reports states that the Iranians are "installing advanced centrifuge machines for enriching uranium" at their Natanz nuclear plant. A US State Department official remarked:
"The installation of new advanced centrifuges would be a further escalation and a continuing violation of Iran's obligations under the relevant UN Security Council resolutions and IAEA board resolutions."
My point isn't to argue the case for or against the Iranian position under international law; rather I want to highlight how the Iranian media obfuscates reality. For example, if you are an Iranian reliant on the state media for information, the IRNA report shouldn't worry you, whereas if you have access to the BBC, one might be a bit more concerned.
Most Iranians probably know enough to read between the lines and to understand that the IRNA's silence was a bad sign. But that, too, tells you something about the nature of the Iranian regime.
This is a perfect example of how the Iranian state media operates. Above is a link to a story from the IRNA about the release by the IAEA of a new report on the Iranian nuclear program. The story contends that the Iranians are not working on a weapon and that the international community has no right to levy sanctions against Iran. Bu this story about the IAEA report never actually states any details about the report. What did it actually say?
For that let's go to the BBC.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-21537206
The IAEA reports states that the Iranians are "installing advanced centrifuge machines for enriching uranium" at their Natanz nuclear plant. A US State Department official remarked:
"The installation of new advanced centrifuges would be a further escalation and a continuing violation of Iran's obligations under the relevant UN Security Council resolutions and IAEA board resolutions."
My point isn't to argue the case for or against the Iranian position under international law; rather I want to highlight how the Iranian media obfuscates reality. For example, if you are an Iranian reliant on the state media for information, the IRNA report shouldn't worry you, whereas if you have access to the BBC, one might be a bit more concerned.
Most Iranians probably know enough to read between the lines and to understand that the IRNA's silence was a bad sign. But that, too, tells you something about the nature of the Iranian regime.
Free Syrian Army Attacks Hezbollah Targets in Lebanon
http://www.timesofisrael.com/syrian-rebels-take-fight-to-hezbollah-in-lebanon/
As bad as the situation in Syria is, it will only get worse if the Iranian gambit to use Lebanon-based Hezbollah forces to support Assad draws anti-Assad forces into combat inside Lebanon. This story suggests that the FSA probably lobbed a few mortar rounds into Lebanon, but that's how these things begin.
As bad as the situation in Syria is, it will only get worse if the Iranian gambit to use Lebanon-based Hezbollah forces to support Assad draws anti-Assad forces into combat inside Lebanon. This story suggests that the FSA probably lobbed a few mortar rounds into Lebanon, but that's how these things begin.
Terror Blast Kills 50+ in Damascus
http://www.sana-syria.com/eng/337/2013/02/21/468516.htm
The Syrian official news agency is playing this one up for all its worth, adding several grizzly photos to the story about the death of the "martyrs."
But let's be honest. This was a terrorist attack. SANA did not mention in its release that the location of the bombings is near the Baath Party HQ and the Russian Embassy. But the people killed were mostly, if not exclusively, Syrian civilians passing by those building.
This reality highlights the difficult choices Obama faces. Assad is a butcher. But should the US pursue a policy that might place these bombers in control of Syria? Anyone who knows me knows that I am not an Obamamaniac. But I can't fault him for hesitation regarding Syria.
If I was president I don't know what I'd do. And I wouldn't have much faith in my "experts" who were so wrong about Egypt, Libya, and now it looks like Tunisia, too. Probably, a good idea would be to gather the nation's top ten academic Syrian experts, ask them what to do, and then do the exact opposite.
The Syrian official news agency is playing this one up for all its worth, adding several grizzly photos to the story about the death of the "martyrs."
But let's be honest. This was a terrorist attack. SANA did not mention in its release that the location of the bombings is near the Baath Party HQ and the Russian Embassy. But the people killed were mostly, if not exclusively, Syrian civilians passing by those building.
This reality highlights the difficult choices Obama faces. Assad is a butcher. But should the US pursue a policy that might place these bombers in control of Syria? Anyone who knows me knows that I am not an Obamamaniac. But I can't fault him for hesitation regarding Syria.
If I was president I don't know what I'd do. And I wouldn't have much faith in my "experts" who were so wrong about Egypt, Libya, and now it looks like Tunisia, too. Probably, a good idea would be to gather the nation's top ten academic Syrian experts, ask them what to do, and then do the exact opposite.
Is the Egyptian Military Signaling? And to Whom?
http://azstarnet.com/news/world/egypt-s-military-signals-impatience-with-morsi/article_51299ac9-43ca-5281-9765-cec0c9f63888.html
This AP story suggests that the Egyptian military is losing patience with President Morsi. I hope there isn't a coup. You know that if there is, everyone will blame the US. But I do think the handwriting is one the wall for the Egyptian military. All they have to do is look north to Turkey.
This AP story suggests that the Egyptian military is losing patience with President Morsi. I hope there isn't a coup. You know that if there is, everyone will blame the US. But I do think the handwriting is one the wall for the Egyptian military. All they have to do is look north to Turkey.
Captured Documents Reveal Qaddafi Planning Terror against Saudis
http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2013/02/21/267460.html
Qaddafi was apparently willing to spend tens of millions of dollars to undermine the Saudis, using hired mercenaries and Al-Qaeda elements.
Qaddafi was apparently willing to spend tens of millions of dollars to undermine the Saudis, using hired mercenaries and Al-Qaeda elements.
Wednesday, February 20, 2013
How Not to Employ Armor in Urban Areas
Syrian Al Qaeda Affiliate Hits Syrian Convoy with 50 IEDs!
There may not have been fifty, but there were a bunch and they detonated them simultaneously. Think maybe these jihadists had some experience gained elsewhere?
Fighting Inside Aleppo
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Feb-19/207064-troops-pour-into-syrias-aleppo-as-battle-rages-for-airport.ashx#axzz2LGMjtnko
As the battle rages for control of Aleppo's airport (see yesterday's post), this report suggests that there is fighting going on inside the city. If the Syrian military hit targets in the district, killing over 30 people, there must have been active rebels in the vicinity. And the photo that accompanies the story shows a badly damaged urban landscape, suggesting that the fighting has been going on for some time.
One can only wonder how much damage has been done to the Syrian infrastructure. I've seen estimates over $10 billion. But I think that it is obvious that when this civil war ends, Syria is going to be a mess physically, politically, and socially.
As the battle rages for control of Aleppo's airport (see yesterday's post), this report suggests that there is fighting going on inside the city. If the Syrian military hit targets in the district, killing over 30 people, there must have been active rebels in the vicinity. And the photo that accompanies the story shows a badly damaged urban landscape, suggesting that the fighting has been going on for some time.
One can only wonder how much damage has been done to the Syrian infrastructure. I've seen estimates over $10 billion. But I think that it is obvious that when this civil war ends, Syria is going to be a mess physically, politically, and socially.
Chechen Jihadists Fighting in Syria
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2013/02/chechen_commander_le.php
Assad may well be a scumbag and a lair, but not everything he and his regime claims is untrue. Foreign fighters are playing an ever larger role in Syria. And as that role increases, the prospects of an outcome in Syria that doesn't heighten regional instability decreases.
Assad may well be a scumbag and a lair, but not everything he and his regime claims is untrue. Foreign fighters are playing an ever larger role in Syria. And as that role increases, the prospects of an outcome in Syria that doesn't heighten regional instability decreases.
Tuesday, February 19, 2013
Tunisian PM Resigns: Crisis Deepens
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Feb-20/207166-tunisia-prime-minister-quits-office-as-crisis-deepens.ashx#axzz2LGMjtnko
Not looking good in Tunisia.
I said to my class two years ago during the start of the Arab Spring: revolution is a process, not an event. The American Revolution as a process took forty years before we could say we had come out with a system along the lines that we had sought going into that process. The Arab Spring has a long way to go if it is to fulfill the hopes of those people who began it. The only outcome that can occur quickly is the derailment of the revolutionary process. We may well be seeing that in Cairo, Tunis, and Tripoli.
Not looking good in Tunisia.
I said to my class two years ago during the start of the Arab Spring: revolution is a process, not an event. The American Revolution as a process took forty years before we could say we had come out with a system along the lines that we had sought going into that process. The Arab Spring has a long way to go if it is to fulfill the hopes of those people who began it. The only outcome that can occur quickly is the derailment of the revolutionary process. We may well be seeing that in Cairo, Tunis, and Tripoli.
Iran: "Leftists and Nasserists" Serve Western Interests
http://www.tehrantimes.com/opinion/105719-leftists-and-nasserists-making-a-strategic-mistake
This is an opinion piece in the Tehran Times. But the implications are clear: the anti-Salafist forces in the Arab awakening are tools of the West, in that they are serving Western interests. They are making a "mistake" and the religious parties should avoid playing their game. What does that mean? What did it mean in the Iranian revolution? Good-bye leftists and Nasserists!
This is an opinion piece in the Tehran Times. But the implications are clear: the anti-Salafist forces in the Arab awakening are tools of the West, in that they are serving Western interests. They are making a "mistake" and the religious parties should avoid playing their game. What does that mean? What did it mean in the Iranian revolution? Good-bye leftists and Nasserists!
Russians Fly People from Syria: Send Ships for Stage Two
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Feb-19/207028-two-russian-aid-planes-flying-to-syria-may-evacuate-citizens.ashx#axzz2LGMjtnko
And according to this Lebanese report, the Russians are also sending ships to Syria. There may be more than 30,000 Russian nationals in Syria, many of them women married to Syrian men. Add to that figure the husbands and children and other family members and you have a large population to evacuate. I doubt that they would be well treated if left behind to fall into the hands of the jihadists. Yes, the Russians will need ships to evacuate that many people.
The longer the Russians wait, the tougher it will be to pull off, and the bloodier. But if the Russians start evacuating on a large scale now, that will signal and hasten the end of the regime.
The end game in Syria may well be a total disaster on myriad fronts.
And according to this Lebanese report, the Russians are also sending ships to Syria. There may be more than 30,000 Russian nationals in Syria, many of them women married to Syrian men. Add to that figure the husbands and children and other family members and you have a large population to evacuate. I doubt that they would be well treated if left behind to fall into the hands of the jihadists. Yes, the Russians will need ships to evacuate that many people.
The longer the Russians wait, the tougher it will be to pull off, and the bloodier. But if the Russians start evacuating on a large scale now, that will signal and hasten the end of the regime.
The end game in Syria may well be a total disaster on myriad fronts.
Iranians Provide Loans for Syria
http://www.sana-syria.com/eng/21/2013/02/19/468169.htm
According to the report the amount is one billion, I assume Syrian pounds which amounts, I think, to something like $125,000,000.
According to the report the amount is one billion, I assume Syrian pounds which amounts, I think, to something like $125,000,000.
Heavy Fighting for Aleppo's Airport
http://www.arabnews.com/troops-pour-syria’s-aleppo-battle-rages-airport
According to the report linked above.
Aleppo is the largest city in Syria, with a population of nearly 2 million. It was the third city of the Ottoman Empire, after Istanbul and Cairo.
According to the report, the fighitng is now focused on the airport. This makes sense, because if the rebels intent to take the city the first step wold be to isolate it from air re-supply.
In short, if Assad loses control, it will be a big blow to his regime. And, given the population of the city, we can expect significant civilian casualties if the fighting is sustained.
According to the report linked above.
Aleppo is the largest city in Syria, with a population of nearly 2 million. It was the third city of the Ottoman Empire, after Istanbul and Cairo.
According to the report, the fighitng is now focused on the airport. This makes sense, because if the rebels intent to take the city the first step wold be to isolate it from air re-supply.
In short, if Assad loses control, it will be a big blow to his regime. And, given the population of the city, we can expect significant civilian casualties if the fighting is sustained.
North Koreans threaten final destruction of South Korea at UN Disarmament talks.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/19/us-nkorea-threat-idUSBRE91I0J520130219
And? Those present were shocked! What language! And in response they are going to do what? Keep talking, of course. And as for sanctions, forget it; the Russians have already said Nyet!
This, of course, has nothing directly to do with the Middle East, but I see the North Korean case as an example of how the West will not respond when the Iranians finally get nukes.
Take the story, substitute Iranians for North Koreans, and "the Zionist Entity" for South Korea and you can see the future.
And? Those present were shocked! What language! And in response they are going to do what? Keep talking, of course. And as for sanctions, forget it; the Russians have already said Nyet!
This, of course, has nothing directly to do with the Middle East, but I see the North Korean case as an example of how the West will not respond when the Iranians finally get nukes.
Take the story, substitute Iranians for North Koreans, and "the Zionist Entity" for South Korea and you can see the future.
Russians Arms to Syria
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/revealed-russias-double-dealing-on-arms-to-assad-regime-leaves-uk-isolated-over-syria-strategy-8500385.html
Apparently, the Russians outwitted the Brits. And the international community keeps waiting for diplomacy to work. And Syrians die. And the people who ARE getting the weapons are the jihadists. Sounds like "Smart Diplomacy."
Apparently, the Russians outwitted the Brits. And the international community keeps waiting for diplomacy to work. And Syrians die. And the people who ARE getting the weapons are the jihadists. Sounds like "Smart Diplomacy."
Gazan Jihadists Join Fight in Syria
http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?ID=303722&R=R1
This bodes poorly for both Jordan and Israel if Assad collapses.
This bodes poorly for both Jordan and Israel if Assad collapses.
Russians Send Emergency Aid to Syria
http://www.sana-syria.com/eng/22/2013/02/19/467870.htm
I'm not sure if these two aircraft are the same earlier reports mentioned or two new planes. But 44 tons of material isn't much for a country as large as Syria. The Iranians just dispatched 100 tons of food. Obviously, there is a food shortage. And obviously the Iranians and Russians are trying to help.
I would also note that the Russians are themselves facing a grain shortage and are importing grain, which they are dumping in the provinces to prevent food price hikes. So sending grain to Syria involves importing grain from the West. Or, to look at it another way, when we sell grain to the Russians, who are not supporting the sanctions against Syria, we are supplying Assad with food.
I'm not sure if these two aircraft are the same earlier reports mentioned or two new planes. But 44 tons of material isn't much for a country as large as Syria. The Iranians just dispatched 100 tons of food. Obviously, there is a food shortage. And obviously the Iranians and Russians are trying to help.
I would also note that the Russians are themselves facing a grain shortage and are importing grain, which they are dumping in the provinces to prevent food price hikes. So sending grain to Syria involves importing grain from the West. Or, to look at it another way, when we sell grain to the Russians, who are not supporting the sanctions against Syria, we are supplying Assad with food.
Monday, February 18, 2013
Geert Wilders Down Under
I'm not sure it's four-minutes before midnight, and I place a great deal of the blame on Western governments themselves. You can't blame Muslims for our government's decision to term what happened at Fort Hood "workplace violence." It was Bush who started it all off claiming that Bin Laden had "hijacked" Islam. And the people who will ultimately pay the heaviest price for our dissimulation won't be Westerners, they'll be Muslims. Our policies make some of them think that they, literally, can get away with murder. We ought not to be surprised that they then murder. But at some point, the West will wake up and when it does it will over-react. We made excuses for Japanese behavior for a decade. We termed unrestricted submarine warfare a war crime for three decades. Then a few hours after Pearl Harbor we adopted it as national policy. A few months later we started rounding up Japanese civilians.
BBC Now Reporting Hezbollah Ops in Syria
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-21496735
The Hezbollah ops were coordinated with the Syrian Air Force. So now we have numerous reports of the Iranian-armed Shia militia in Lebanon intervening in Syria.
One could say great! Let's stand by and watch two groups we dislike fight each other. And there is something to be said about such a Realpolitik line of reasoning. The downside is that 70,000 people are already dead (up from 60,000 in less than a fortnight), the levels of brutality are increasing steadily, and it is going to be hard to stand aside forever. And when we do finally take some kind of action, there are going to be many Syrians who will blame us for delaying so long.
But, then again, we've watched as the Algerians have butchered each other for the past twenty years and 200,000 dead.
But I don't think Assad is going to last twenty years. And what do we do if an al-Qaeda affiliated outfit takes Damascus and Assad's conventional and chemical arsenal?
The Hezbollah ops were coordinated with the Syrian Air Force. So now we have numerous reports of the Iranian-armed Shia militia in Lebanon intervening in Syria.
One could say great! Let's stand by and watch two groups we dislike fight each other. And there is something to be said about such a Realpolitik line of reasoning. The downside is that 70,000 people are already dead (up from 60,000 in less than a fortnight), the levels of brutality are increasing steadily, and it is going to be hard to stand aside forever. And when we do finally take some kind of action, there are going to be many Syrians who will blame us for delaying so long.
But, then again, we've watched as the Algerians have butchered each other for the past twenty years and 200,000 dead.
But I don't think Assad is going to last twenty years. And what do we do if an al-Qaeda affiliated outfit takes Damascus and Assad's conventional and chemical arsenal?
Russians Begin Airlifting Their People from Syria
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Jan-22/203274-150-russians-to-flee-syria-bloodbath-via-beirut-diplomat.ashx#axzz2LGMjtnko
Not a sign that Moscow thinks Assad is going to hold on, no matter what they may say publicly. I posted a day or so ago about the Iranians flying out documents and destroying others that they don't want anyone to capture and expose. Then you have the news about the Hezbollah militias engaging and being built up.
Not a sign that Moscow thinks Assad is going to hold on, no matter what they may say publicly. I posted a day or so ago about the Iranians flying out documents and destroying others that they don't want anyone to capture and expose. Then you have the news about the Hezbollah militias engaging and being built up.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Official: Foolish and Dastardly Americans Pursuing Democracy in the Middle East
http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=9107145512
What a claim! Iranians charge that the US has been pursuing a global plan for regime change by using that horrible tactic--democracy! But things haven't worked out so well in the Middle East. Why? Because the people of the Middle East keep electing Islamists!
All of this is, of course, accurate. But it reinforces the point that the Iranians and the Muslim Brotherhood are not democrats. It is time for us to wake up to that reality but, as the Iranian official states, we insist on "pursuing the same experience." From the text:
What a claim! Iranians charge that the US has been pursuing a global plan for regime change by using that horrible tactic--democracy! But things haven't worked out so well in the Middle East. Why? Because the people of the Middle East keep electing Islamists!
All of this is, of course, accurate. But it reinforces the point that the Iranians and the Muslim Brotherhood are not democrats. It is time for us to wake up to that reality but, as the Iranian official states, we insist on "pursuing the same experience." From the text:
"In essence, the US strategy is changing regimes through democracy and Americans have implemented this strategy in Ukraine, the former Soviet Union and Georgia," Saeedi told FNA.
He stated that Americans intended to exercise the same strategy in the Middle-East but to no avail, as the results of elections in the Middle-East were against what the US desired. Saeedi further pointed to elections results in Egypt which led to the victory of Islamist groups, and said, "Nonetheless, the US still insists on pursuing the same experience." Islamist parties have been experiencing a chain of victories in the post-revolution elections held in several regional countries since the start of 2011. In Tunisia, the once-banned Islamist party, the Al-Nahda, won majority in the country's first free elections. In Egypt, Ikhwan Al-Muslimun (Muslim Brotherhood)'s Freedom and Justice Party won majority in nationwide elections. Analysts believe that the victory of Islamists in various Middle-East countries has caused deep worries in Washington, and the White House is working on different plans to redirect the path of revolutions in these countries to bring pro-western politicians to power. |
Does Current US Policy in Syria Help al Qaeda?
http://english.alarabiya.net/views/2013/02/18/266933.html
This is a very interesting piece in Al Arabiya. It raises the prospect that the end-game in Syria will leave an al- Qaeda affiliate with the strongest position, because the jihadists are gaining support and legitimacy of the people through their actions, (as, I would add, happened in Afghanistan). The author questions Obama's policy, or lack thereof.
Time will tell, and we'll find out in the not so distant future.
This is a very interesting piece in Al Arabiya. It raises the prospect that the end-game in Syria will leave an al- Qaeda affiliate with the strongest position, because the jihadists are gaining support and legitimacy of the people through their actions, (as, I would add, happened in Afghanistan). The author questions Obama's policy, or lack thereof.
Time will tell, and we'll find out in the not so distant future.
Sunday, February 17, 2013
Christianophobia!!!
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2013/02/2013216235124227319.html
Can you imagine if a Western country did this--arrest Muslims from different countries for trying to spread Islam?
Can you imagine if a Western country did this--arrest Muslims from different countries for trying to spread Islam?
Muslim Brotherhood Casts Opposition as Enemies of Egypt
http://www.ikhwanweb.com/article.php?id=30662
This article makes that argument and has some nasty thing to say about El Baradei. But I think the most interesting, and important, part of the piece is found in the following quotation.
This article makes that argument and has some nasty thing to say about El Baradei. But I think the most interesting, and important, part of the piece is found in the following quotation.
"A final point. Some of the opposition figures keep invoking the term "political Islam," as if the term were a source of shame to Islamists.
Well, political Islam is not the invention of the Muslim Brotherhood or other Islamists. It is rather solidly rooted in Islam and its holy scripture, the Quran.
I am not going to discuss certain arguments made by anti-Islam secularists who claim that the rule of Sharia is not a must upon Muslims and that Muslims might opt for modern Western-style democracy without violating the tenets of their faith.
These arguments are quite nonsense, even for first grade Muslim children.
But I do want to point out that one cannot reject political Islam as a matter of principle, without rejecting Islam itself.
Yes, one might disagree with certain Islamist modalities, behaviours and interpretations. We all reject violence and terror committed in the name of religion. And we all would like to see a kinder and gentler practice of Islam everywhere.
But we must never allow ourselves as Muslims to compromise the main principles of our faith in order to appear more in tune with the age, and more acceptable to the West."
In my opinion, this is THE major point of contention about Islam. Can you separate its religious elements from its political elements? Is secularism, by definition, as this quote states "anti-Islam"? Is it "quite nonsense" to argue that you can adopt "western-style democracy without violating the tenets" of Islam?
What is so interesting that those Westerners who make that argument, are labelled Islamophobes! But here we see a spoke person for the Muslim Brotherhood saying the same thing. Who in the West would accuse the Ihkwan of being Islamophobes?
Hezbollah Militia Operating in Syria
http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2013/02/17/266843.html
There were reports a few days ago about The Iranians setting up Lebanon-based Shia militias in Syria. Now we have reports--see above--that those militias are involved in the fighting, in support of Assad, against Sunni rebels.
This represents a major escalation of the Syrian fighting in two ways. First, it suggests that even if Assad flees, we will see a Shia-Sunni civil war in Syria. Second, there is a possibility if this type of fighting continues, that after Assad goes, the Syrians Sunnis will move against Hezbollah in Lebanon, which could further destabilize that country.
So we have the Iranians propping up Assad militarily and financially, at the expense of Shia-Sunni harmony in Syria AND Lebanon.
And US policy is what? Hope!
There were reports a few days ago about The Iranians setting up Lebanon-based Shia militias in Syria. Now we have reports--see above--that those militias are involved in the fighting, in support of Assad, against Sunni rebels.
This represents a major escalation of the Syrian fighting in two ways. First, it suggests that even if Assad flees, we will see a Shia-Sunni civil war in Syria. Second, there is a possibility if this type of fighting continues, that after Assad goes, the Syrians Sunnis will move against Hezbollah in Lebanon, which could further destabilize that country.
So we have the Iranians propping up Assad militarily and financially, at the expense of Shia-Sunni harmony in Syria AND Lebanon.
And US policy is what? Hope!
Iran: Not that We Want Them, But You Can't Stop Us!
http://www.france24.com/en/20130216-khamenei-says-us-couldnt-stop-iran-getting-bomb
That's about it. The Supreme Leader assures us that Iran isn't working on nuclear weapons, and that Iran doesn't want them. But if it did want Nukes, there's nothing the West could do to stop them from getting them.
Let's think about this for a second. There are two possibilities for Obama.
First, he can accept the word of the Supreme Leader, Allah's Deputy on Earth.
Or, second, Obama can assume that Allah's Deputy on Earth is lying and has just informed us that the sanctions WILL NOT prevent the Iranians from developing nuclear weapons.
If Obama accepts the first premise, then he should drop all the sanctions, because, after all, what justification is there for punishing the Iranian people for doing nothing?
If Obama does not believe the Supreme Leader about developing nukes, then Obama should act accordingly, given the fact that he has stated for the record repeatedly that he will not allow the Iranians to develop nuclear weapons.
But, of course, Obama will adopt a third approach and assume that Khamenei is lying about nuclear weapons and bluffing about ignoring the sanctions. Obama will do this because he hopes--and his policies are generally based on hope--that none of this crap will blow up before his second term is over.
That's about it. The Supreme Leader assures us that Iran isn't working on nuclear weapons, and that Iran doesn't want them. But if it did want Nukes, there's nothing the West could do to stop them from getting them.
Let's think about this for a second. There are two possibilities for Obama.
First, he can accept the word of the Supreme Leader, Allah's Deputy on Earth.
Or, second, Obama can assume that Allah's Deputy on Earth is lying and has just informed us that the sanctions WILL NOT prevent the Iranians from developing nuclear weapons.
If Obama accepts the first premise, then he should drop all the sanctions, because, after all, what justification is there for punishing the Iranian people for doing nothing?
If Obama does not believe the Supreme Leader about developing nukes, then Obama should act accordingly, given the fact that he has stated for the record repeatedly that he will not allow the Iranians to develop nuclear weapons.
But, of course, Obama will adopt a third approach and assume that Khamenei is lying about nuclear weapons and bluffing about ignoring the sanctions. Obama will do this because he hopes--and his policies are generally based on hope--that none of this crap will blow up before his second term is over.
Obama Bitch Slapped by Iranians Again
http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=9107144910
Iranians reject West's offer to drop some sanctions in return for promises. Declare it evidence of Onama's weakness.
When will our leaders get the message?
Iranians reject West's offer to drop some sanctions in return for promises. Declare it evidence of Onama's weakness.
When will our leaders get the message?
The Joy of Sects
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia/2013/02/2013216133651823848.html
Obviously, these Sunnis need more religious education since they don't seem to understand that theirs is a religion of peace and tolerance. They definitely need to build more Madrases, don't you think?
BTW, the death count of dead Shia is now over 80.
Obviously, these Sunnis need more religious education since they don't seem to understand that theirs is a religion of peace and tolerance. They definitely need to build more Madrases, don't you think?
BTW, the death count of dead Shia is now over 80.
Friday, February 15, 2013
Neville Obama!
http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?ID=303420&R=R1
Yesterday, reports hit the wires that the Iranian nuclear talks had ended without any progress and without any new date set for a resumption of further talks.
Today, the West has offered to scale back the sanctions if the Iranians PROMISE to slow their nuke program. As if the Iranians are incapable of lying! They just lied to the world about their new stealth jet with a sorry-ass photoshop effort.
What a set of spineless fools lead the West.
Yesterday, reports hit the wires that the Iranian nuclear talks had ended without any progress and without any new date set for a resumption of further talks.
Today, the West has offered to scale back the sanctions if the Iranians PROMISE to slow their nuke program. As if the Iranians are incapable of lying! They just lied to the world about their new stealth jet with a sorry-ass photoshop effort.
What a set of spineless fools lead the West.
Iranian Republican Guard CO Knocked off in Syria
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/9871583/Iran-commander-assassinated-in-Syria.html
Of course, the Iranians blame the Jews! I can't think of any Syrians who might have a grudge against the Iranians for helping Assad hold onto power and kill about 70,000 people, can you? I mean, is there some kind of shortage of armed Sunni Muslims in Syria willing and able to kill anyone associated with Assad? Damn! It must be those Jews.
And if it was the IDF? God bless them!
Of course, the Iranians blame the Jews! I can't think of any Syrians who might have a grudge against the Iranians for helping Assad hold onto power and kill about 70,000 people, can you? I mean, is there some kind of shortage of armed Sunni Muslims in Syria willing and able to kill anyone associated with Assad? Damn! It must be those Jews.
And if it was the IDF? God bless them!
Has the Arab Spring Become a License to Rape?
http://frontpagemag.com/2013/raymond-ibrahim/the-epidemic-of-sexual-harassment-and-rape-in-egypt/
Reports certainly seem to suggest just that. Some Egyptians don't like to see people protesting against Morsi, and they seem to hate it when they see women protesting. Don't women know protesting is only for men? In retrospect, what happened to CBS reporter Lara Logan was not some kind of aberration. It appears to have marked the start of a trend.
Reports certainly seem to suggest just that. Some Egyptians don't like to see people protesting against Morsi, and they seem to hate it when they see women protesting. Don't women know protesting is only for men? In retrospect, what happened to CBS reporter Lara Logan was not some kind of aberration. It appears to have marked the start of a trend.
Quiz: Name the Country Holding the Most Journalists in Prison
http://www.cpj.org/2013/02/attacks-on-the-press-in-2012-turkey.php
No, it's not China. No it's not Cuba.
It's Turkey!
And people hope that the Arab world models Turkey.
No, it's not China. No it's not Cuba.
It's Turkey!
And people hope that the Arab world models Turkey.
Thursday, February 14, 2013
Syrian Muslim Brotherhood Calls for International Intervention!
http://www.ikhwanweb.com/article.php?id=29641
Well, maybe now Obama will act. I would have to assume that Morsi and the Egyptians are saying the same thing.
Well, maybe now Obama will act. I would have to assume that Morsi and the Egyptians are saying the same thing.
Iran Nuke Talks End without Results
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/02/2013214162124206119.html
And without any date set for new talks. Interesting that Al Jazeera is reporting this as a major story, but I couldn't find any mention at the BBC or AP websites. They seem much more interested in the Pistorius case and the Neo-Django incident in CA. Or maybe it just doesn't fit the "smart diplomacy" and let's talk narrative of the Obama administration? In any event, it's not a good sign.
And without any date set for new talks. Interesting that Al Jazeera is reporting this as a major story, but I couldn't find any mention at the BBC or AP websites. They seem much more interested in the Pistorius case and the Neo-Django incident in CA. Or maybe it just doesn't fit the "smart diplomacy" and let's talk narrative of the Obama administration? In any event, it's not a good sign.
Here is a key paragraph: "Late last year it [the Obama administration] set a March deadline for Iran to start cooperating with the IAEA's investigation, warning Tehran that it might otherwise be referred to the UN Security Council."
So let's see some of that "smart diplomacy," Mr. President!
Iranians Conclude Assad is Doomed?
http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?ID=303217&R=R1
According to these reports, the Iranians are either flying their sensitive documents and materials back to Tehran or destroying them in place in Damascus. Recall reports a few days ago that the Iranians, working with Hezbollah, were building up militias in Syria with an eye on a post-Assad civil war.
According to these reports, the Iranians are either flying their sensitive documents and materials back to Tehran or destroying them in place in Damascus. Recall reports a few days ago that the Iranians, working with Hezbollah, were building up militias in Syria with an eye on a post-Assad civil war.
Egyptians Flooding Gaza Tunnels
http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?ID=303159&R=R1
Interesting. Apparently Morsi wasn't happy when a border shoot-out killed some Egyptian soldiers. Next we'll see charges that Morsi is in league with "the Juice."
Interesting. Apparently Morsi wasn't happy when a border shoot-out killed some Egyptian soldiers. Next we'll see charges that Morsi is in league with "the Juice."
Egyptian Death Spiral
http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2013/02/13/egypt-death-spiral-watch-continues/
An interesting take on the declining fortunes of Egypt, as its political woes increase its economic problems, which, in turn, undermine its political stability.
Wednesday, February 13, 2013
Egypt's Black Bloc: Who are they?
http://english.alarabiya.net/views/2013/02/08/265071.html
This is a link to an Al Arabiya article about the Egyptian Black Bloc. They are, basically, hard-left and anti-Islamist.
http://anarchistnews.org/content/black-bloc-egypts-opposition-gets-more-radical
And here's a piece from Anarchist News. Hell, they ought to know.
This is a link to an Al Arabiya article about the Egyptian Black Bloc. They are, basically, hard-left and anti-Islamist.
http://anarchistnews.org/content/black-bloc-egypts-opposition-gets-more-radical
And here's a piece from Anarchist News. Hell, they ought to know.
Iranians caught in a photoshop lie?
http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2013/02/13/266089.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/9866347/Irans-flight-of-fancy-as-image-of-new-fighter-jet-is-faked.html
Telegraph claims that images of the new Iranian stealth fighter flying over mountains is a fake photoshopped image. Earlier reports raised doubts that the thing was anything more than a static mop-up.
Now, here's the point. If the Iranians will lie about this jet, are we to believe that they wouldn't lie about a nuclear weapons program?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/9866347/Irans-flight-of-fancy-as-image-of-new-fighter-jet-is-faked.html
Telegraph claims that images of the new Iranian stealth fighter flying over mountains is a fake photoshopped image. Earlier reports raised doubts that the thing was anything more than a static mop-up.
Now, here's the point. If the Iranians will lie about this jet, are we to believe that they wouldn't lie about a nuclear weapons program?
Monday, February 11, 2013
Syria
http://wapo.st/Y3ew5d
Iranians and Hezbollah are building up Shia militias to help support Assad's regime. This has all the makings of a civil war, even when Assad falls.
Iranians and Hezbollah are building up Shia militias to help support Assad's regime. This has all the makings of a civil war, even when Assad falls.
Droning On!
Actually, this one is Bush's fault. After 911, Bush chose to term what had happened as a war on terror. There were two problems with that choice.
First, Bin Laden was a Jihadist, not a terrorist. I believe that Bush chose to use the term terrorist because it is generic, in that anyone can be a terrorist. An Arab can be a terrorist; an Irishman can be a terrorist; as Basque can be a terrorist; and so, too, can an American--e.g., Tim McVeigh. Jihadists, on the other hand, by definition are Muslims and Bush didn't want to make it look like we had a problem with the Islamic world.
Second, the problem with declaring Bin Laden and company terrorists, was that terrorism is a criminal activity. The use of the term implies that the terrorists ought to be treated as criminals, with all the due process that come with that. Criminals are innocent until proven guilty in a court of law. Criminals, if at all possible, need to be apprehended in order to try them to determine their guilt. Criminals can't be held indefinitely without trial. And law enforcement officials can't simply tell their officers to shoot people on sight. Bush's choice of terminology thus opened the door to so many problems that have dogged us to this day.
Obama, as a Senator, Presidential candidate, and President in his first term did nothing but reinforce Bush's initial and faulty decision. Obama wouldn't even allow his administration to use the phrase global war on terror. Instead we used an even less indicative of reality euphemism--overseas contingency operations.
Now the Obama administration seems to have awoken, to some degree at least, to the reality. SECSTATE Clinton spoke of a global war against jihadism in her Congressional testimony. And now Obama seems prepared to step up his drone campaign.
Obama's legal reasoning, in my opinion, is sound, if you work from the assumption that we are in a war. Zogby's critique of Obama is spot on, if you work on the assumption that we are fighting global criminality. What Obama needs to do is to make the case for his use of drone in the context of a global war against jihadism.
For example, in April 1943 the US intercepted a plane transporting Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto near Bougainville in the Solomon Islands. It was a planned assassination of a major Japanese leader. Had we captured Yamamoto after the war, we would have had to try him in a court for crimes, e.g., planning the attack on Pearl Harbor, and had to prove his guilt before punishing him. It would not have been legal to have simply taken him out and shot him. But during the war, it was legal to assassinate him as part of on-going military operations.
What if, for the sake of argument, Yamamoto had been born in the US and been, technically, a US citizen? Would his assassination then been illegal? Would FDR have been guilty of murdering a US citizen without due process? No! As long as Yamamoto, despite his US citizenship, had voluntarily chosen to serve the Japanese Imperial forces, despite their being in a state of war with the US, he would have been a legitimate target.
Zogby offers the example of the Iranians launching a drone attack against an American official in the region. The problem with that example is that the US and Iran are not at war. If, for example, for whatever reason US naval forces tomorrow struck Kharg Island with a strike by naval aircraft and cruise missiles, then the Iranians would be justified to try to zap one of our officials with a drone strike. If the Israelis do preemptively hit Iranian nuclear sites, yes, the Iranians would be justified in striking against the Israelis, with drones. We didn't hit Yamamoto solely because he was planning operations against us, we hit him because he was planning those operations for an organization that had planned AND executed earlier operations. In other words, it was legal to hit Yamamoto on 18 April 1943; it would have been illegal to have done the same on 18 November 1941.
What Obama needs to do is to explain to the American people a wartime rationale for what he is doing. But will he? I doubt it. Because to lay out that rationale he would have to speak the truth about what we are up against, and he, like his predecessor, is extremely reluctant to do so. Obama will take the heat, trusting that his friends in the media and the Congress won't push him too hard.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/james-zogby/obama-and-drones-unkept-p_b_2652514.html
I'm Back!
Not that anyone will notice. But after an absence of four years, I've decided to start blogging again. Much has changed in my life. I'm no longer a department chair. I thought I was going to die, but I didn't. I divorced my wife. I found a new love, wonderful that second time around.
Many things have changed in the Middle East. Many things have not. The Iranians are still working on their bomb, and still dissing Obama. The Israelis and the Palestinians.... Enough said. But we did see "The Arab Spring" sweep through Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya. Too bad that isn't working out as well as so many hoped. I'll have more to say on that topic.
For me, I'm even more pessimistic about the course of events than I was four years ago. I still think we are headed for the abyss.
For the few who read this, and the very few who kept checking for four years, good to see you again.
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